Tag Archives: C&D

Nick Hardman Free Tips

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat tweet this tip
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4 tweet this tip
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker tweet this tip
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2 tweet this tip

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11/2 All Weather Bet

Today I've grabbed you a selection from Gary Poole's Bookies Enemy No 1 service.

Gary is an ace at spotting the value in the early markets and locking in value for himself and his members.

This selection was given out last night when it was generally available at 13/2, since then the bookies have woken up to the chances of this one and shortened it in to 11/2 where it still represents a bit of value.

Gary is a race watcher, an activity that requires great skill and a lot of time and that's what he dedicates his life to.

He is also a player of multiple bets and has bagged some huge profit days with his Trixies, Trebles and Doubles.

In fact he has a Trixie on his service today with this selection and two others priced at 8/1 and 9/1.

If this one comes off it will win £900 for every pound staked.

You can get immediate access to the other two selections when you join Gary at http://bookiesenemyno1.com

Here's the bet I've grabbed for you today with Gary's reasoning…

3.20 Wolverhampton:Hernando Torres

Ran an eye-catching race here two starts back in a better race than this on his first start since June and a repeat of that effort here should see him go very close.He has since had an outing over hurdles which will insure he's primed since that October run and although he's only run 2 of his 34 races he is still relatively unexposed on the all-weather and last run over C&D suggested there is plenty more to come.

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Hamilton Trainer Trends

Today we have an article from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders where he looks at the Hamilton trainers for tonights meeting.

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Hamilton Trainer Trends

At first glance Keith Dalgleish does not appear to be a trainer to follow at Hamilton, despite a highly respectable strike rate of 14.95% in the last 5 years.

Backing all of his 194 runners at the track since 2010 would have resulted in an overall loss of £21.34 to £1 level stakes. However, if we focus solely on his runners in non-handicap races then we see a different story altogether.

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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The record of his runners in non-handicap races is not only highly impressive but they are highly profitable too with a 25% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate.

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

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His last 5 runners at the track in non-handicap races have finished 31121 at prices of 20/1, 7/1, 5/2, 50/1 and 9/4. On Friday he has the following entries in non-handicap races:

6.40pm Sir Acclam & Battleranger in the 6f maiden

Battleranger ran 2nd to an odds-on Mark Johnston fancy at the track last time out. That was only his second start and he outran his odds of 50/1 by some way. Sir Acclam was last of 9 on his sole start at Ayr.

Another trainer with a great record at Hamilton is Kevin Ryan. Since 2010 his runners at the course show a level stakes profit of £27.78 and a healthy strike rate of 23.33%.

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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His 3yo runners do particularly well.

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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He has the following entries on Friday:

7.40pm Hopes N Dreams & Blaine in the 6f class 2 handicap
8.45pm Keep To The Beat (3yo) in the 1m 3f handicap

Hopes N Dream absolutely loves it around Hamilton. The 6yo has course figures of 111711111. That’s 8 wins from 9 visits to the course including a last time out C&D win over useful yardstick Tangerine Trees.

Blaine is also entered in the same race but this former Gimcrack winner is a riskier betting proposition. He has failed to live up to expectations after winning his maiden and the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes as a 2yo.

Once rated 107 his mark has tumbled to 96 and he unseated his rider last time out. He is undoubtedly talented as shown on his one good run this year when 3rd of 20 in a good handicap at York behind Aetna and Baccarat.

It may be he saves his best for York (form figures 113) but it would be folly to dismiss his chances out of hand here. Keep To The Beat is still a maiden after 9 starts but ran his best race last time out when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 14 at Beverley. He stepped up from a mile to 10f that day and the extra furlong may well suit.

Our final trainer to follow at Hamilton is Mrs Marjorie Fife. Her record with her runners at the course speaks for itself:

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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She is 2-2 this season at Hamilton and both those victorious horses return to the track on Friday.

7.10pm Mandalay King in the 6f handicap
9.10pm Camerooney in the 1m 1f handicap

Mandalay King is a 9yo now but he is still competitive at his given level. His overall course figures are 1723172241581. All four of his victories have come at class 5 or lower and he goes in the 6f class 5 handicap on Friday evening.

Camerooney is even older at 11 but he is another who loves it around Hamilton with two wins and a third place finish from three starts. Shirley Teasdale is booked to ride both and takes off a useful 5lbs which should see both horses competitive.

Finally, don’t forget we have previously highlighted (and profited from) Tom Dascombe’s runners at Haydock and the Godolphin 2yo runners at Newmarket trained by Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor. Both courses have meetings this Friday and Saturday so be sure to keep an eye out for their runners over the next two days.

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