Tag Archives: Champagne Fever

King George Tips

A big days racing today with the highlight being the King George Chase.

Tomorrow we have the Welsh National to look forward to.

Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) looks at both races and gives his selections.
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Last week we landed 2 winners from 4 selections at SP’s of 15/2 and 7/4.

This week we turn our attention to the two big races over the Xmas period – the King George VI Chase and the Welsh National.

I have covered both races in detail in the latest issue of the Betting Insiders Magazine and my opinion for the King George has not changed in that Silviniaco Conti is the best staying chaser in training right now.

I put him up as an ante-post tip in the Betting Insiders December issue @4/1.

He is now a best priced 5/2 and if you think that is value then back him.

Cue Card has disappointed this season and was out-stayed by Silviniaco Conti in last year’s King George and I cannot see him reversing that form. Champagne Fever had a hit-and-miss novice season. He was beaten in both the Leopardstown Xmas festival and Punchestowns Festival and arguably his best performance was his 2nd place finish in the Arkle. He was impressive on his seasonal reappearance when he beat Alderwood over 2 ½ miles.

The King George is much tougher and he is too short in my opinion at 10/3.

Al Ferof easily won the Amlin Chase over 2m 3f at Ascot in November and was third in the King George last year (beaten 14 ½ lengths). He has won 5 of his 11 chase starts but has come up short tackling 3 miles in the past. He was slammed 25 lengths by Harry Topper in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury last February over 3 miles and followed that up with a disappointing 5th in the Ryanair.

I think his form flatters to deceive and I cannot see him winning this year’s King George.

I think Dynaste is a much better each-way proposition as he definitely gets the 3 mile trip and ran Silviniaco Conti to within 1 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at Aintree in April. Beaten 10 lengths by Silviniaco Conti in November’s Betfair Chase was a decent effort first time out this season and I think he rates a danger to the favourite.

He is one for the each-way backers @14/1 or those who want to play the place market.

King George VI Chase:

Selection: Silviniaco Conti @5/2
Each-way alternative: Dynaste @8/1

The Welsh National is a great race for trends analysis and this is the typical profile:

• Aged 7yo or 8yo
• A top 4 finish LTO
• Carrying 10-09 or less (10-0 or 10-01 if the going is heavy)
• Had last raced 16 – 60 days previously
• Had 1 or 2 runs in the current season
• Had previously raced over 3m 5 ½ furlongs of further (preferably 4+ miles)

Those that currently fit the profile are Global Power, Amigo and Emperor’s Choice.

It remains to be seen if any make the final cut.

Amigo for David Pipe was runner up in the trial race 3 weeks ago and finished 7th in this last year. He has winning form at Chepstow over 3 miles and acts on the ground.

Oliver Sherwood’s Global Power has bits and pieces of form over staying trips including a 4th place finish in 2013 Midlands National and a win in the Cumberland Handicap Chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground in 2013 and a 2nd place finish in the same race 12 months later.

Emperor’s Choice for Venetia Williams won the 2013 Surrey National over 3m 4f on heavy ground and followed that up with a win in the West Wales National in 2014 over 3m 4f. His chase form on heavy going reads 2111612. A thorough stayer if ever there was one.

Welsh National trends horses:

Global Power @25/1
Emperor’s Choice @25/1
Amigo @14/1

Aintree Grand National Meeting Tips

Today we have an interesting article from Mark Foley of Trainer Trends about the Aintree Grand National meeting that kicks off tomorrow.

But before we get to the article I just want to tell you about the big race trends service that Mark is offering for the three days of the Aintree festival.

If you joined Mark for Cheltenham then you will know that he had a very profitable Cheltenham. The highlight for me was using the Free £50 bet that Bet Victor gave on Champagne Fever at 7/1.

Mark is doing exactly the same for Aintree for just £14.99 for the 3 days – Click Here to secure a place for this.

Ok, over to the article which will hopefully steer you away from some losers…

How does Cheltenham form hold up at Aintree?

Backing favourites isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but knowing whether a favourite is strong or weak is fundamental to having a bet. It’s impossible to ignore Cheltenham form when it comes to forming the market at Aintree and the bookies have often got it horribly wrong, horses that looked invincible at Cheltenham a few weeks earlier have looked a shadow of themselves at Aintree.

In the past 10 years you would have made a small 3% loss following the 147 Aintree favourites who earned their market position on the back of their run at the Cheltenham festival. Two completely different tracks; left handed; right handed; undulating; flat; stiff finish; flat finish, long run in. So is it worth backing a Cheltenham horse that goes off as favourite at Aintree?

It would have taken a brave man to oppose the following horses after their scintillating performances at Cheltenham Denman (twice; Evens and 5/4); Imperial commander 11/8; Master Minded 2/5; Albertas Run 6/4; Kauto Star 4/7. They all got turned over at Aintree of course despite their short prices, so how do you find a reliable favourite at Aintree?

The first point to note is that runners that finished in the first 2 at Cheltenham tended to do well at Aintree; add in the runners that didn’t finish their race at the festival but still went off as favourites and the results are transformed.

All but 7 of the 43 winners either finished in the first two at Cheltenham or failed to finish and as the table below illustrates they were profitable to follow:

Grand National Aintree Trends


Impressive figures and following such runners would have seen you make a profit in all but 2 of the last 9 Aintree festivals. 

The next salient point is that the favourites over the shorter distances had the best record; it would appear that the speedsters don’t have quite as much taken out of them as the runners over longer distances. Seventeen winners from only 28 runners for a 107% return in races over 16 and 16 ½ f.

Aintree Favourites

The following trainers did particularly well:

(Runners who went off as favourites at Aintree having run at the Cheltenham Festival).

Aintree Profitable Trainers

The above four trainers have provided over 50% of the 47 winning favourites who also ran at the Cheltenham festival in the past 10 years and Nicky Henderson’s record in recent years has been particularly impressive.

In conclusion, following the runners who went off as favourites at Aintree who finished in the first 2 (or failed to finish) at the Cheltenham festival; runners over the shortest distances and runners trained by the above trainers proved to be reliable favourites and were profitable to follow.

All the best Mark.

Today's Selection

Wetherby 4.40 Musnad – win bet – evens Paddy Power

Free Cheltenham Cash

I hope your day 1 went well?

I had a cracking day which got off to a great start with Champagne Fever, hopefully you had a little on that one?

Our recommended tipsters had a great day as well. Mark Foley had 3 selections and made just short of 5 points profit on the day.

I've just spoken to Mark and he has agreed to open up his Cheltenham offer for another few hours, so if you want to get on today's selections – Click Here.

Carl at Value Backing gave Tullamore Dew each way at 40/1. By the way if you want to ask Carl anything about racing or Value Backing pop over to his new Facebook page and just ask – http://facebook.com/valuebacking

As we are in the middle of bookie bonus season I should mention the Bonus Bagging service, these guys promise you will make £500 for free in the first month of using their service and with so many offers around you could make more than that if you get started today – Click Here

If you're betting eachway today the bookmakers are pretty much aligned with their terms, except..

2.05 Everybody is going 1/4 odds except Bet Fred
5.15 Everybody is paying 4 places except Blue Square and Ladbrokes who only pay 3 places.

Yesterday we didnt need Victors £50 refund as we had the winner.

Today we are going to take advantage of Coral who will refund £10 whether we win or lose if we bet in the first race.

Today's Selection

Cheltenham 1.30 Godsmejudge – win bet – Coral 7/1 (Bet £10 and Coral will refund you £10 win or lose)

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