chances Archives • Daily Punt

Please Mr Santa

Posted on December 23, 2019 by Dave French • 0 Comments

If you don’t want socks or underwear for Christmas then you need to get your requests in for for stuff that you would really like.

With that in mind we have some of the lesser known betting books that will help pass away a few quiet afternoons during the holiday period.

Born to Punt is a collection of amusing events that have befell sports writer Steve Palmer.
If you want to feel a bit better about your own misfortunes at the hands of the bookies.

One reviewer summed this book up thus “Absolutely hilarious from the start! For anyone that is regularly involved in financial combat with the bookmakers, or simply intrigued into what makes thousands of people regularly frit away their finances on a variety of sports, Steve’s account is frightfully recognisable. Chasing the dream! The lazy boy lifestyle led with his accomplice through various fast-food establishments adds the required light humour! ”

Our second choice is the more serious, although not too heavy for the non mathematician, Taking Chances.

John Haigh is the author of a number of books on probability and manages to make the mathematics of betting and winning just about understandable by the man on the street.

And although this is not the latest book on the subject it is one of the more readable and is recommended for that reason

Sporting Chancer is a wonderful read that will keep you occupied and amused during the dull sober moments of the traditional christmas.

The book follows Ed Hawkins as he tries to punt himself around the world. Not in a flat bottomed boat with a big stick but by betting to fund his travels.

As well as losing in one of the biggest casinos in the world, he bets on cock fighting, plays bingo and challenges Phil ‘The Power’ Taylor to a game of darts.

Any round up of betting books would not be complete without a couple of the all time classics and here I include the books that I read as I started my own betting career.

Any of Nick Mordin’s books are worth a read as is his website where he regularly looks at racing in alternative ways.

But this is the one that I remember most fondly. Nick explains his methods and the index cards of data that he would carry to the days racing to help him identify the bets he would make.

It wraps up with an account of his own profits and losses betting around the racecourses of England.

As far as I’m aware Value Betting by Mark Coton was the first book to explain the concept of value betting. And although it was pre mainstream internet and Betfair the message is still valid today.

I’m going to finish off with Alan Potts’ Against the Crowd. Alan Potts was a pro gambler turned pundit for a while and this one has had a place on my bookshelf since the mid 90’s.

As the title suggest Alan, like Mark before him, was a value seeker. And like Nick he includes a diary of his bets over the preceding season

Todays Tip

Hexham 2.50 Ockey De Neulliac Each Way

Filed Under: Money
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Greyhound Racing Videos

Posted on November 1, 2019 by Dave French • 1 Comment

Before I get into the specifics of finding winning dogs by reading the form I want to just give a bit more background info and talk about a method I used to use when I was full time betting the greyhounds…

Finding the winning greyhound in a graded race is about a lot more than the times it has achieved in the past.

Graded racing is the greyhound equivalent of a handicap race except that greyhounds are not allocated any sort of handicap to slow them down.

Instead they selected to be as closely matched as possible.

The Racing Managers job is to put together races that are as closely matched as possible and to, if you like, create a puzzle for the punters.

On course bookmaking at greyhound tracks is notoriously hard, mainly because when money talks in a small market there are not the opportunities to balance out a book. This is the reason that on course overrounds are huge at greyhound tracks and the reason that the Racing Manager does his best to make the races as decipherable as possible.

Don’t let any of this put you off, though, because winners can be found if you are selective and if the meeting is covered by Betfair then fair prices can be obtained also.

As with any activity knowledge equals power or in this case the more you know the more profitable you can be. The ultimate level of knowledge is to have watched every race ever run by every dog in the race to hand and to know how each has been performing at home. (Many trainers these days have some sort of track at their own kennels).

It is unlikely that you can get inside info on every dog in a race but you can often get to see every race a dog has run. For some years now tracks have supplied videos of all races run to those prepared to pay for the privilege. And the backer who focuses on one particular track can, given time, watch every run of a particular animal. However this is an expensive, although ultimately profitable, approach.

I will briefly touch on the things to watch out for when race watching here and next time we'll get on to a more form based approach.

Racing Videos

When watching greyhound racing in the main what you are looking for is

• Dogs that have had a hard race (bumped and blocked) but still performed well indicating they are faster than the time recorded. They are likely faster than the bare form suggests. If you are in the bookies watching the BAGS racing and you see a dog that had a hard race make a note of it and check the results to see what tine it did and estimate what time you think it should have done,. It may be a good bet next time out.

• How a dog breaks from the traps EG do they run straight to the rail, which would cause trouble for the dog inside them but hand an advantage to the dog on their outside. This info can be useful in assessing the chances of the dog in question and other dogs.

• Are they on the bunny! IE doing everything in their power to get in front and win or did they give up easy & just follow the pack home. Chasers, who are not really up for it will win less than their share of races because they don't like to be in front.

Filed Under: Systems
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Nick Hardman Racing Tips

Posted on January 30, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

It’s usually around this time each year that I start to take a look at the ante-post markets for the Cheltenham festival and I have a couple of interesting types who I will be backing now at value prices.

We will also take a look at some of the feature races over the weekend and we have a couple of interesting runners from today’s cards.

There is a lot to like about Value At Risk and his chances in the Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle despite the fact he was beaten on Trials Day last weekend.

He made his racecourse debut when runner up to Very Wood in a bumper at Punchestowns when trained by Phillip Fenton.

He then went on to win his next two races before finishing 13th in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper.

This was followed with a fine 3rd at the Punchestowns Festival, beaten only by the Cheltenham bumper 1-2 in the shape of Silver Concorde and Shaneshill.

Value At Risk was then acquired by Harry Skelton and hacked up on his hurdles debut before going down narrowly to Ordo Ab Chao at the weekend.

He stayed on stoutly after being passed to suggest the step up to 3 miles will be right up his street.

This horse has bumper form that ties in with two Festival winners (Very Wood went on to win the 2014 Albert Bartlett) and that is enough to tempt me in at 12/1

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 2015 – Value At Risk @12/1

The other horse to catch my eye at the weekend was David Pipe’s Un Temps Pour Tout who ran a blinder to finish just under 3 lengths behind tough-as-nails Reve De Sivola and the race-fit, yet classy, Saphir De Rheu.

You could argue that he was getting 2lbs from the winner and 6lbs from the runner up but you need to take into account it was his first run for 266 days and also his first crack at 3 miles.

He will strip fitter for his reappearance and there could be any amount of improvement to come over 3 miles. I think the 16/1 currently available will be a lot shorter on the day.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle 2015 – Un Temps Pour Tout @16/1

On to today and Garde Fou has a decent chance in the 3.30pm handicap hurdle at Chepstow.

A runner-up on his two previous starts, the form of his latest run has worked out well with the winner going in again at Newbury.

Garde Fou is dropping back in trip here but 2m 4f on heavy going around Chepstow will take plenty of getting and he has an each-way chance.

Rocky Elsom is a bit hit-and-miss but he won’t mind the mud flying around and he is another in with an each-way shout based on his win at Lingfield two starts back.

In the next race, Loughalder is an interesting runner down in class and down in trip. He is 3 from 4 over C&D and I am hoping this venue sparks a revival after a lackluster effort on his seasonal reappearance.

This is easier than the race he contested at Haydock but he is 9lbs above his last winning mark so it will be a speculative punt only for me.

Chepstow 3.30pm Garde Fou @15/2 & Rocky Elsom @12/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 4 places)

Chepstow 4.05pm Loughalder @6/1

I will be covering all of the big races at the weekend over at the Betting School Insiders Club on the Big Race Analysis thread on the Members Forum. Hopefully we can continue where we left off last week.

In the five races we covered we picked out winners at 10/1 and 9/2 to go with two runners-up at 6/1 and 10/3 and a third placed finisher advised at 12/1 each-way.

One of the races we will be covering is the West Wales National at Ffos Las on Saturday.

I put up Global Power as 1 of the 2 selections for the Welsh National at Chepstow but he was not declared at the 48 hour declaration stage.

He has an entry for Saturday and I am hopeful of a decent run. He has some form over staying trips including a 4th placed finish in 2013 Midlands National, a win in the Cumberland Handicap Chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground in 2013 and a 2nd place finish in the same race 12 months later.

Two starts back he was beaten a neck by Theatrical Star who has since run a fine second to Hawke’s Point in a Grade 3 at Warwick.

When it comes to training thorough stayers, Venetia Williams has few peers. She has three entered at the time of writing and the one I like is Royal Palladium who fell last time out attempting run up a four-timer in a race won by Firebird Flyer.

Royal Palladium was leading when he fell three from home and he meets Firebird Flyer on much better terms this time around.

He has a nice racing weight of 10st 8lbs and that might count for a lot when you consider the first three home last year carried 10st 5lbs, 10st and 10st 1lb.

Saturday January 31st

Ffos Las 2.40pm Royal Palladium (e/w) & Global Power (e/w)

All the best

Nick Hardman

http://bettinginsiders.com

Filed Under: Systems
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Nick Hardman Free Tips

Posted on January 23, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club…

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w)
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w)
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2

Filed Under: Tips
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Tag Archives: chances

Please Mr Santa

Greyhound Racing Videos

Nick Hardman Racing Tips

Nick Hardman Free Tips