Tag Archives: character

Haydock Tips

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Nick shares Haydock tips and pointers for this evening and tomorrow afternoon.

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There is some excellent racing at Haydock this weekend as the course holds its three day meeting with the highlight being the Lancashire Oaks on Saturday. Before I get to that race, here are a few pointers for a trainer with an excellent record at the track.

Tom Dascombe

Tom Dascombe has had 41 winners from 181 runners at the course since 2010 at a strike rate of 22.65% and a level stakes profit of £63.62. Over 1 in 3 of his runners reach the frame with 67 placed horses from those 181 runners at a place strike rate of 37.02%.

21 of his winners have come in non-handicap races (from 81 runners) for a level stakes profit of £54.21 at a strike rate of 24%. Of greater significance is the fact he has had 4 runners in non-handicaps at the course this season and they have finished 4111.

His entries at Haydock over the weekend in non-handicap races are:

Stec (Friday 8.15pm) 7f maiden
The Character (Friday 8.45pm) 1m maiden
Bear Behind (Saturday 2.20pm) 6f conditions race
Wall Of Sound (Saturday 2.55pm) Group 2 1m 4f

His handicappers are 20-93 (SR 21.51%, £9.41 level stakes profit) since 2010 at the course. In the last 2 years those figures read 17-69 (SR 24.64%, £17.91 level stakes profit). In 2014 he has saddled 4 winners from 14 runners in handicap races at Haydock.

However, if we remove those runners who went off bigger than 16/1 he has a 50% strike rate (4 winners from 8 runners) and a level stakes profit of £21.50. His handicap entries over the weekend are:

Captain Whoosh (Friday 6.45pm) 5f hcap
Celestial Vision (Friday 7.15pm) 2yo hcap (nursery)
Dreams Of Reality (Saturday 1.45pm) 5f hcap
Capo Rosso (Saturday 4.40pm) 7f hcap

Any of Dascombe’s horses ridden by Richard Kingscote are worth a second look. They form a great partnership and have teamed up for 31 winners already this season. This partnership has produced figures of 211311 in their last six rides. At Haydock in 2014 they are 4-10 for a level stakes profit of 16.88pts.

Lancashire Oaks

It is no secret that John Gosden is having a terrific season and his fillies in particular have been in cracking form.

When competing against their own sex, Gosden’s fillies are 13-82 to a level stakes profit of £9.90.

A win strike rate of 15.85% does not stand out as being exceptional, but on closer order you will find that 45 of those 82 runners finished in the places at a huge strike rate of 54.88%.

If we dig a little deeper we find that all 13 winners competed in non-handicap races (from 67 runners). Again, a massive 41 of those 67 fillies filled the places at a place strike rate of 61.19%.

With the Lancashire Oaks in mind, we can look specifically at the race distance 1m 4f.

This season he has sent out 9 fillies over 1m 4f (non-handicaps) and they have finished 331112130.

That’s 4 winners and 8 placed horses from 9 runners.

He runs Pomology and Sultanina in this year’s renewal and both can be given solid chances.

Pomology seeks to defy an absence of 328 days but cannot be discounted, especially as her trainer has won this race 5 times since 1997 and has won 3 of the last 11 renewals.

John Gosden also trained Place Rouge to win this on her debut in 2003, so the lengthy absence of Pomology is considered a slight concern rather than a big negative.

Sultanina and Freedom’s Light finished 1-2 in the Pinnacle Stakes over C&D in May with Silk Sari, Special Meaning and Astonishing in behind.

Freedom’s Light won a Listed race over 12f next time out to frank that form.

Sultanina was unraced as a 3yo but is 2-2 as a 4yo and is open to bags of improvement having only her third run. This is a better race than the two she has won but she is largely unexposed.

There have been seven 3yo and seven 4yo winners since 1997 and the 3yo horses get a hefty allowance of 13lb. However, only one 3yo has managed to win in the last 7 renewals.

The sole 3 year old lining up here is Richard Hannon’s Lustrous. She loved the step up to 1m 4f when finishing a staying-on second to Bracelet in the Group 2 Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot.

As long as that has not taken too much out of her she should have a great chance here in receipt of 13lbs.

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Dr Nick Hardman is a regular contributor of winning systems analysis and tips at the Betting School Insiders Club. Find out more about the Betting School Insiders Club here

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Football Preview and Tips

We've got this weekend's football preview below, but first just a mention of today's Betfred offer, which is again a double odds offer.

If Bob's worth wins by more than 5 lengths then Betfred will double the odds on SP bets up to £500.

If you don't like risk, then make an SP bet with Betfred and lay the bet off at Betfair, if Bob's Worth wins by more than 5 lengths you will make a huge bonus.

Lay the bet just before the off to get an idea of what SP will be. http://betfred.com

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

A Preview of this Weekends Football Action

Last weekend Chelsea took full advantage of their rival’s involvement in the FA Cup by storming to a seven point lead at the top of the table. This weekend all of the top four face challenging ties away from home which may start to sort the boys from the men.

The early kick off on Saturday features a Manchester City side who will want to re-establish their credentials as the most free scoring and entertaining side in the country.

City suffered a surprising loss at the Etihad to Championship side Wigan in the FA Cup Quarter Final last week and amazingly it will be manager Manuel Pellegrini who is under the most pressure at the moment. It’s been a very bad week for the Chilean as he has witnessed his team crash out of the Champions League at the hands of Barcelona as well.

Tomorrow they face a Hull City side buoyed by their own progress to the FA Cup semi finals. The mega rich owners of the Citizens do not accept the slightest sign of weakness from their manager or his players so they will be desperate to get their season back on track.

I can only see one winner here as Negredo, Aguero and Co should be too much for the Tigers to contend with. But then again I thought that last week as well. I guess that’s the beauty of football.

There is a reason Chelsea have taken the Premier League by the scruff of the neck. Consistency. They have won eleven and drawn three of their last fourteen league games and that is the form of champions.

They travel to the Midlands to play Aston Villa – a team with recent form as full of holes as Miley Cyrus’s string vest. Three losses and a draw were followed up last weekend by a terrible start against Norwich.

With only one goal scored in the last three hundred and sixty minutes of football no one could have foreseen the incredible turnaround which saw them score four times in sixteen first half minutes to end the contest and take the points. Villa will need to take that form into this game if they are to stand any chance. John Terry and his band of merry men mullered Tottenham last week by four goals helped by a little bit of theatrics from Samuel Eto’o as he “won” a penalty which saw Younes Kaboul red carded for the challenge.

It was sad to see Eto’o join Ramires, Hazard and Oscar in the Chelsea Diving Club but thankfully the powers that be at least recognised this during the week as they rescinded Kaboul's sending off. Too late for Spurs but the correct decision to stop any further punishment for the unlucky Kaboul. Now, I’d like to see that taken a little further as they should also retrospectively punish those that clearly cheat to gain an advantage for their side.

In previous seasons the clash between Manchester United and Liverpool has been eagerly awaited as a potential powder keg of a game and I expect this Sunday we will not see too much Churchgoing Spirit being displayed at Old Trafford.

The Red Devils have won their last two matches but remain fallible and for the first time in many years it is Liverpool who will be favourites for the three points. Seven wins and two draws in their last nine games have seen Brendan Rogers and his side move into second place and this will be a huge test of their character.

If they can win at Old Trafford then the self belief will flood through their veins and it could lead to the start of a serious push for the title. The Triple S strikeforce of Suarez, Sturridge and Sterling are hitting some superb form and if they can over come the sense of awe that had under Sir Alex Ferguson pervaded Old Trafford then they could make the short journey back to Merseyside with all three points.

United under David Moyes have not yet gained that sense of awe and are proving to have a vulnerability about them that would have been unheard of in the last twenty years or so.

Sunday also sees the North London derby between Tottenham and Arsenal. Spurs have struggled badly against the top four sides this season and have gained just one point in six games thus far. A draw with Chelsea in September has been their solitary success.

Losses to Arsenal by one goal and then two losses to Manchester City with eleven goals conceded have been combined with two further losses to Liverpool by five and Chelsea by four goals.

Games with their closest rivals Arsenal have been closer in recent years and form has often gone out of the window but with Tim Sherwood’s position in charge reported to be a matter of contention already he will not want to suffer a loss to the Gunners.

A win for Spurs could see them get to within three points of Arsenal but they will not need any added motivation to bust a gut in this game. It could prove to be an apt time to face their rivals since Arsene Wenger will be without Mesut Ozil as well as Jack Wilshere and a number of others struggling with injuries. I suspect the teams will nullify each other and a draw will prove to be a fair result.

Top Tips

Manchester City will get back on track and punish Hull City by a clear two or three goals. Best odds for a City win are at 4/7 although odds on Hull at 6/1 are generous for a home win at any time. Couple this with a gimme bet on Chelsea at 6/11 or if you’re feeling a little more adventurous why not have a little faith with Brendan Rogers and his men. Best odds on Liverpool are at 2/1 for a win at Old Trafford and I have a sneaking suspicion that the Pool will heap further misery on David Moyes and his misfiring malcontents.

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today's Selection

Cheltenham 2.40 Kings Palace – win bet – 4/1 Ladbrokes

Sire System 61% ROI

There are many ways to approach racing and winning from betting and no best way.

But you are likely to be more profitable though if you use an approach that the majority don't use.

One such approach that the man in the street tends not to pay attention to, unless it is called out by somebody in the media is betting on the influence of the sire.

But characteristics and preferences are passed from father to foal and knowing the inbred preferences of a horse can help us find winners.

So today I have the results of some research into one such angle which will hopefully identify some winners for us over the coming weeks.

The sire we are looking at today is Teofilo(IRE).

What I've targeted today is the All Weather runners of the Teofilo progeny.

With any angle the most profit will come from runs made before the horse and it's ability is exposed so we are looking at 2 and 3 year olds in their first 5 runs.

The preferred distance is 7 furlongs or 1 mile.

And we are only betting on standard going which prevails 99% of the time.

So they are the rules and the results for the last 4 years, which is when we first started seeing qualifiers is…

Runs = 82

Wins = 18

Strike Rate = 21.95%

Profit at iSP = + 50.56

Return on Investment = 61.54%

Those figures jump up if we exclude the first year. Looking at just 2012 – 2014 then there is profit in each year with an ROI of 86.93%.

These breakdown to…

2012 ROI = 96%

2013 ROI = 78%

2014 ROI = 66%

Looking at the individual courses there has been no profit at Dundalk or Wolverhampton.

Most of the runs have been at southern tracks (Lingfield, Kempton) so it may be that rather than these runners having no preference for the northern tracks it may just be a case of where the majority of the progeny are based currently.

Do you follow any sire systems or use sire influences in your selection process, if so and you'd like to share them then please add a comment.

Today's Selection

Catterick 4.20 Georgian Firebird – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

 

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