Tag Archives: chester

Cesarewitch Tips

Today we have our weekly look at the weekends racing action from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman)

Nick has set us up with some nice winners this season and today he tries to find us the winner of the Cesarewitch to add to his tally…

Last week we highlighted in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon. He bagged us a winner that day and has followed up with another in midweek. He is still a trainer I want to keep on-side in the early part of the season and he sends a few runners to Carlisle today.

He has a decent strike rate at the track too with 6 winners from 19 runners. He has the following entries on Friday:

Charlie Longsdon Carlisle runners Friday 10/10/2014

3.10pm Drop Out Joe
3.45pm Orange Nassau
4.20pm Simply The West
5.20pm Deadly Move

Cesarewitch Tips

On to Saturday and we have the last of the big handicaps in the Cesarewitch.

Having already landed the Ebor and Cambridgeshire it is a tall order to land the hat-trick but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t at least share my thoughts.

This race has gone to some big priced winners in recent times including winners at 66/1, 66/1 and 25/1 in the last three renewals.

Weight and official ratings do not tell us much regarding potential winners but, with the exception of Scatter Dice last year, the previous 10 winners had winning form over 2m or further.

Hurdlers have finished in the top two in 13 of the last 17 renewals. Other strong trends include a top 4 finish last time out and no more than 7 runs in the season. That helps reduce the field to 9.

One who ticks plenty of boxes is Big Easy for Philip Hobbs and the trainer knows what it take to win this having done so with Detroit City in 2006.

Big Easy looks to have solid credentials having finished runner-up in the trial race 3 weeks ago. That was his first flat run of the season and he should come on bundle for the run and he has a nice draw in stall 2.

Another who is guaranteed to stay is Chester Cup winner Suegioo. He last two runs have been over trips shorter than 2 miles and I think he will relish every yard of this trip. He was also a fine 2nd in the Northumberland Plate over 2 miles and that race is a good pointer for horses who run well in the Cesarewitch.

Another with solid prospects is Swnymor who has to turn the form around with hotpot favourite Quick Jack, but he takes him on here on much better terms (16lbs better to be exact).

My only concern is his wide draw in stall 34 but with several bookmakers paying 6 places he is still worth an each-way interest.

If you fancy taking something at a bigger price then the ultra-consistent Noble Silk, a good 4th in the Northumberland Plate, should give you a run for your money 33/1.

Nicky Henderson trained the winner of this in 2008 and Kieron Fallon rode the winner in 2012. They team up on Earth Amber @33/1 and any rain would help his cause, although he is another from our short list who has been done no favours by the draw (stall 33).

Saturday Newmarket 3.50pm

Trends horses: Big Easy @12/1 & Suegioo @16/1

Alternatives: Swnymor @16/1, Earth Amber @33/1 & Noble Silk @33/1

Football and Racing

Today we have a football acca and an interesting observation from Peter Hawkeye that might find us some winners at Chester.

First don't forget to make your Sky Super 6 entry for an absolutely free chance to win a quarter million pounds.

http://dailypunt.com/super6

We've got a football perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate again, these bets havent hit form yet, but last year we had a fair few collections around the £100 mark from £1 per bet stakes.

TAPS has been successfully tipping since 1996 and you can trial their racing and sports selections for free here http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
MAN CITY
NORWICH
CELTIC
MORTON
BERWICK

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
VCBet

Peter Hawkeye

You can trial Peter's tipping service for a full month for just £7.99 here http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

I always find it interesting when Irish trainers make the trip over to the UK mainland for certain middle of the road kind of meetings and with horses that seem not to have been in the best form over in Ireland.

Today I noticed that John Patrick Shanahan has a few runners at Chester, a course he has done well at before.

So it may pay to take a close look at those runners and hopefully one or two can pop up at decent prices.

The entries he has are…

1:55 Fragile Earth
2:30 Bethany Bay – 14/1 Bet 365
3:05 Maid Of The Glens – 25/1 Bet 365
3:40 Dolce N Karama
5:25 Drummore Road – 6/1 Bet Victor

Saturday Racing and Football

Today we have football bets from The Alternative Punters Syndicate and racing thoughts from Peter Hawkeye.

We'll start off with football.

You can trial the TAPS racing and football service for a full month for free here.

http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

TOTTENHAM
WOLVES
PRESTON
HEARTS
CLYDE

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
VCBet

This will return just under £110 for £1 stakes.

Hawkeye Tips

Trial the Hawkeye Tips service for one month for just £7.99.

Goto http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

The draw at Chester is always to the fore when any race takes place there.

But sometimes this is overplayed from the bookies, because they just think anything drawn wide must be at a big disadvantage.

This is not always the case, because if a horses race style is to be held up then a draw can have little impact on that horses overall chance.

Yes you will still need the breaks to run through the field, but that would be the same in any race with any draw.

The only difference being that the tight nature of Chester could make this a little more tricky.

I do think today Angelito in the 4.45 at the venue is a case in point and as such the 12’1 with a few bookies looks generous.

Performance Review

Today I'm going to have a little catch up on some of the angles we've looked at recently.

Starting off with September Trainers.

You'll remember on the 3rd of this month we published a list of trainers to follow in September.

After 11 days we have had 20 bets, 3 wins and a profit at industry SP of 1.5 points.

The Betfair SP profit is a slightly juicier 4.55 after commission which is a 22% ROI.

Mark Foley's Gordon Elliott angle got of to a cracking start with a 7/1 winner on the day we published and 3 winners from 4 on the second day.

My stats may have steered readers away from the odds on selections but either way great profit was made and this is one to follow going forward.

The next Perth meeting is on the 24th and 25th of September.

Finally it is Chester tomorrow and although the low draws will be bet in the sprints you'll remember that our previous articles have shown that horses drawn 1 and 2 have a definite advantage on the 11 and 12 furlong races also.

This advantage is overlooked or not known by the majority of punters and is a source of value bets for us.

This article goes into the detail http://dailypunt.com/chester-draw-bias-2/

Today's Selection

Chepstow 4.00 Romance Story – win bet – 9/2 Betfred

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close