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Football Preview and Tips

We've got this weekend's football preview below, but first just a mention of today's Betfred offer, which is again a double odds offer.

If Bob's worth wins by more than 5 lengths then Betfred will double the odds on SP bets up to £500.

If you don't like risk, then make an SP bet with Betfred and lay the bet off at Betfair, if Bob's Worth wins by more than 5 lengths you will make a huge bonus.

Lay the bet just before the off to get an idea of what SP will be. http://betfred.com

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

A Preview of this Weekends Football Action

Last weekend Chelsea took full advantage of their rival’s involvement in the FA Cup by storming to a seven point lead at the top of the table. This weekend all of the top four face challenging ties away from home which may start to sort the boys from the men.

The early kick off on Saturday features a Manchester City side who will want to re-establish their credentials as the most free scoring and entertaining side in the country.

City suffered a surprising loss at the Etihad to Championship side Wigan in the FA Cup Quarter Final last week and amazingly it will be manager Manuel Pellegrini who is under the most pressure at the moment. It’s been a very bad week for the Chilean as he has witnessed his team crash out of the Champions League at the hands of Barcelona as well.

Tomorrow they face a Hull City side buoyed by their own progress to the FA Cup semi finals. The mega rich owners of the Citizens do not accept the slightest sign of weakness from their manager or his players so they will be desperate to get their season back on track.

I can only see one winner here as Negredo, Aguero and Co should be too much for the Tigers to contend with. But then again I thought that last week as well. I guess that’s the beauty of football.

There is a reason Chelsea have taken the Premier League by the scruff of the neck. Consistency. They have won eleven and drawn three of their last fourteen league games and that is the form of champions.

They travel to the Midlands to play Aston Villa – a team with recent form as full of holes as Miley Cyrus’s string vest. Three losses and a draw were followed up last weekend by a terrible start against Norwich.

With only one goal scored in the last three hundred and sixty minutes of football no one could have foreseen the incredible turnaround which saw them score four times in sixteen first half minutes to end the contest and take the points. Villa will need to take that form into this game if they are to stand any chance. John Terry and his band of merry men mullered Tottenham last week by four goals helped by a little bit of theatrics from Samuel Eto’o as he “won” a penalty which saw Younes Kaboul red carded for the challenge.

It was sad to see Eto’o join Ramires, Hazard and Oscar in the Chelsea Diving Club but thankfully the powers that be at least recognised this during the week as they rescinded Kaboul's sending off. Too late for Spurs but the correct decision to stop any further punishment for the unlucky Kaboul. Now, I’d like to see that taken a little further as they should also retrospectively punish those that clearly cheat to gain an advantage for their side.

In previous seasons the clash between Manchester United and Liverpool has been eagerly awaited as a potential powder keg of a game and I expect this Sunday we will not see too much Churchgoing Spirit being displayed at Old Trafford.

The Red Devils have won their last two matches but remain fallible and for the first time in many years it is Liverpool who will be favourites for the three points. Seven wins and two draws in their last nine games have seen Brendan Rogers and his side move into second place and this will be a huge test of their character.

If they can win at Old Trafford then the self belief will flood through their veins and it could lead to the start of a serious push for the title. The Triple S strikeforce of Suarez, Sturridge and Sterling are hitting some superb form and if they can over come the sense of awe that had under Sir Alex Ferguson pervaded Old Trafford then they could make the short journey back to Merseyside with all three points.

United under David Moyes have not yet gained that sense of awe and are proving to have a vulnerability about them that would have been unheard of in the last twenty years or so.

Sunday also sees the North London derby between Tottenham and Arsenal. Spurs have struggled badly against the top four sides this season and have gained just one point in six games thus far. A draw with Chelsea in September has been their solitary success.

Losses to Arsenal by one goal and then two losses to Manchester City with eleven goals conceded have been combined with two further losses to Liverpool by five and Chelsea by four goals.

Games with their closest rivals Arsenal have been closer in recent years and form has often gone out of the window but with Tim Sherwood’s position in charge reported to be a matter of contention already he will not want to suffer a loss to the Gunners.

A win for Spurs could see them get to within three points of Arsenal but they will not need any added motivation to bust a gut in this game. It could prove to be an apt time to face their rivals since Arsene Wenger will be without Mesut Ozil as well as Jack Wilshere and a number of others struggling with injuries. I suspect the teams will nullify each other and a draw will prove to be a fair result.

Top Tips

Manchester City will get back on track and punish Hull City by a clear two or three goals. Best odds for a City win are at 4/7 although odds on Hull at 6/1 are generous for a home win at any time. Couple this with a gimme bet on Chelsea at 6/11 or if you’re feeling a little more adventurous why not have a little faith with Brendan Rogers and his men. Best odds on Liverpool are at 2/1 for a win at Old Trafford and I have a sneaking suspicion that the Pool will heap further misery on David Moyes and his misfiring malcontents.

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today's Selection

Cheltenham 2.40 Kings Palace – win bet – 4/1 Ladbrokes

More Betfair Multiples

We had a few requests for more detail on using the Betfair Multiples, so today we have a long and detailed article from Clive Keeling of What Really Wins money.

On the tips front our Chase Specialist will be updating us at 12.30 and if there is a selection it will appear here.

We also have a selection from Value Backing Extra which is in great form at the moment. You can get that below.

Multiply your returns with multiples.

I want to talk to you about a new kind of accumulator, found at www.betfair.com. It’s called Betfair Multiples.

Normally accumulator bets are the preserve of the needy and the greedy. You back all of your fancied teams, and hope they all win. If one fails you, tough, you lose.

But with Betfair Multiples, we can now back and lay teams in an accumulator.

Imagine that! In a 3 horse race ( home win, draw, away win) you can effectively back 2 of the outcomes in an accumulator.

Go to www.betfair.com, go to SPORTS and in the sub menu, click on multiples.

You will be presented with this screen.

Click on any image to enlarge

The coupon we are interested in is arrowed above.

The key to success I feel with Betfair Multiples is to include as many lay bets as possible with a sprinkle of back bets . A multiple is made up of 8 selections. I would limit to 2 back selections and ideally 6 lay selections.

The 2 back selections must win and consequently are likely to be short priced ( and you will of course have done your research – I don’t need to remind you do I ?) and the lays will normally be of teams who are preferably away from home against odds on opponents. In all of these lay bets we will be covering the draw.

We therefore have 2 back bets and effectively 6 back bets covering 2 of 3 options in the match odds coupon.

So you’ve researched. Now we approach the coupon.

Change the arrowed to All Events ( by Start Date).

Here I will engineer a Multiple ( note I have not done the research, it is just for show purposes).


Having made your 8 selections ( of course another tip is that we should not be bullied into making 8 selections!

I am going to back this Multiple meaning I want to back selections below to win, and the lay selections to lose . Put in your stake, then press View Odds.

So I’ve backed USA and Celtic and layed 6 other teams ( covering their opponents and the draw). The possible return is 2.48 which is nearly 6/4 which I’m happy with. As the season progresses you’ll find there are teams which standout to back and lay. USA are likely to win at 1.11 odds, why not try to bump up their odds with a judiciously placed multiple?

Insure your multiples?

Here’s an old article I wrote on insuring accas. It is still relevant and gets the point across perfectly. Those with extremely good memories may recall reading it in a previous eletter, but rather than reinvent the wheel, I’ll reproduce it below. Note it also mentions laying in the halftime/fulltime markets as part of Multiples.

Here’s an idea on how we can construct an accumulator which has an outstanding chance of success because it incorporates laying as well as backing. Let me show you what I did last weekend.

In this multiple I like laying teams in the Halftime/Fulltime market as well as choosing at least one team to back , the “ banker” if you will.

Laying a team to lose at halftime/fulltime gives us “2 bites at the cherry”. If the team is not leading at halftime, we win! If the team is leading at halftime, but does not win the match after 90 minutes, we win!

In the above example, I opposed Newcastle, Wolves, West Brom, Sunderland , Stoke and Fulham, and backed Manchester City to win in the conventional 90 minute market.

Effectively, this bet bumped up the odds of the Manchester City bet to over evens.

Well, we know how that fared! And here’s another advantage of betting in multiples on Betfair.
Insurance!

Yes, all of the above markets are now “in play” including the halftime/fulltime markets in specific football leagues ( although admittedly they are not liquid at present.)

Let’s look at how the multiple is getting on at half time.

My halftime fulltime lays are already successful with Newcastle losing at halftime, as well as Stoke, Sunderland, Wolves, West Brom and Fulham.

Manchester City have a 1-0 lead over QPR. And those watching the match know how City have been struggling.
Take out insurance !

Manchester City are leading 1-0. I want to create a break even should they relinquish the lead ( after all QPR ideally need a draw). Here I have layed Manchester City to win £174. Now this does not wholly cover my stake on the multiple, but I’m happy to take a marginal loss .

My insurance premium? £14.64.

Well the match was 2-2 coming to the 92nd minute. Worse case scenario is that I lose £11 ( the difference between my £185 stake in the Multiple, and the £173.85 I will win if the match remains a draw.)

If Man City win, I will win my multiple, at odds of 2.14 but lose my £14 “insurance” bet.

And thank you to Aguero for getting the goal that ensured I won the multiple!

So, what have we learned. Well in constructing a multiple, try and include a “banker” team which we back , and “bump up” the odds by laying in large markets such as the correct score, total goals, or halftime fulltime markets. By laying one bet, we are effectively backing all others. For example, look at the number of bets we have running for us when we lay Fulham/Fulham to win at halftime/fulltime ( arrowed below!)

This gives us an outstanding opportunity to profit, as long as our banker wins.

And here’s how to lay a multiple, with a neat idea which profited well last season.

Look in the Betfair Multiple Coupon for 1 1.3 shot ( or thereabouts ) and 2 1.5 shots ( approximates will do).

Having selected your 1.3 shot, and 2 1.5 shots ( preferably playing at home), we now look to oppose this treble, meaning that if only one of these 3 teams fails to win, we win because we opposed ( layed) the multiple.

Ensure that you have chosen the Lay Multiple Option instead of the Back Multiple option. Then click on View Odds to check the odds.

Liability is the issue here , as with all type of laying. As the odds are a little too big, the odds for the treble are 4.16 and the potential liability for a £100 lay is £316. Normally odds will be around 2.8 which is more manageable.

Why not try laying accumulators instead of backing?

Experiment with the above treble idea if you want, or look to lay any accumulator you were thinking of backing? Accumulators are the bread and butter of the bookies – they love them as , in their traditional back only format, they lose a lot.

Now you can lay a multiple for short priced favourites in a given weekend if you think one has a chance of not winning.

And to end ….

As this season comes to life, there may be opportunities to make an accumulator out of all of the superior teams in given European Leagues.

Here’s an illustration. In the Premier League, Man City and Man Utd will win the majority of their matches. In Scotland , it should be a cake walk for Celtic and Rangers ( now the latter are in a lower league. ) In Holland, Ajax, PSV and Twente are the usual triumvirate, although AZ Alkmaar were showing form and Ajax were not their usual trustworthy selves.

In Greece, we have Panathanaikos and Olympiakos. In Germany, Bayern Munich and B. Dortmund are likely to win the majority of their matches. In Turkey, Galatasary were returning to something like the dominance of the past and Fenerbahce were solid. In Portugal, Porto held sway with Benfica close on their tails.
You get the idea.

These teams are likely to win their matches week in and week out, and especially at home against other than their stronger league opponents. Why not put them all in an accumulator once a week. It should come up on occasion.

Bottom Line.

The new football season , and especially Saturday and Sunday Football, will provide excellent opportunities for a creatively crafted Betfair Multiple. You only get 8 legs in their multiples, maximum, so choose from the cream! www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk will feature interesting multiples when the opportunities arise so make sure you keep an eye on the website. And a further expansion on the Multiple idea can be found with the accompanying video.

So, remember that when you look to accumulators this season, look to lay as well as back and you’ll increase your strike rate considerably.

Today's Selection courtesy of Value Backing Extra (Just £9.99/month)

Kempton 4.55 Inthar 1/2pt win @ 11`4 Various BOG

 

 

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