course Archives • Daily Punt

Create your own speed ratings

Posted on February 18, 2015 by Dave French • 1 Comment

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

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Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Posted on February 13, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

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Multiple Bets

Posted on February 12, 2015 by Dave French • 2 Comments

I've never been one for multiple bets!

I suppose the lower strike rate puts me off and the general feeling that they are mug bets, loved by bookmakers.

I've always known that if you have value bets that you multiply the value with a multiple bet, but I've never been tempted until recently.

The reason I'm into them now is because a couple of the tipping services here have been using each way Doubles and Trixies to great effect.

These guys have been hitting a good few wins and when they come off these bets pay big 🙂

Here's an example double from Gary Poole's Bookies Enemy No1 service…

Epson Hill – Won 13/2

Online Alexander – Won 9/1

Paid £814.40 for £20 staked (£10 eachway double)

Here's another from Gary where they all placed second, but the bet still made a great return…

American Hope – 2nd 10/1

Gold Dream – 2nd 14/1

Don't Bother Me – 2nd 22/1

Paid £404.50 for £40 staked (£5 eachway trixie)

And it's not just Bookies Enemy that is exploiting these bets. The Racing Consultants know the power of the eachway multiple.

Here's one of theirs that was nearly massive but still won big with two wins and a place…

Slade Power – Won 4/1

Baccarat – Won 12/1

Toscanini – 2nd 11/2

Paid 497.50 for £40 staked (£5 eachway trixie)

If you want to be involved with bets like these the easiest way is to join one of these services and profit from their hard work.

But if you don't like paying for tipsters then there is an excellent article in the February On Course Profit mag that explains how to do it for yourself.

Links

The Racing Consultants

Bookies Enemy No1

On Course Profit

Today's Selection

14:05 Thurles Down Ace – win bet – 13/8 Betway

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Nick Hardman Racing Tips

Posted on February 6, 2015 by kelly • 0 Comments

Today we have an ante-post pick for the Triumph Hurdle and the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, together with a trends analysis of the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday. We finish off with a look at the prospects of Donald McCain Jr’s runners at Newcastle this afternoon.

We are building up a portfolio of ante-post selections for the Cheltenham Festival on the Members Community Forum over at the Betting School Insiders Club and I can share our latest one with you today. Gordon Elliot has an interesting runner in the Gala Retail Spring Juvenile Hurdle on Sunday and an eye catching performance could see his price contract for the two Cheltenham festival races for which he has an entry.

The horse in question is Vercingetorix and he was trained last year on the flat by none other than Andre Fabre in France. He ran four times, twice in Listed events, but failed to win. He won a maiden hurdle as easy as you like on racecourse debut and could have any amount of improvement in him.

The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is an excellent trial for the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. Unaccompanied won this race in 2011 before finishing second in the Triumph Hurdle, Hisaabaat did exactly the same in 2012, Our Conor won in 2012 and won the Triumph Hurdle a month later and last year Guitar Pete won this before finishing third in the 2014 Triumph Hurdle.

Vercingetorix has entries in the Supreme Novice and the Triumph Hurdle. I think he will go to the latter but I am happy to have a speculative £1 @33/1 for the Supreme in case he ends up running there instead.

JCB Triumph Hurdle – Vercingetorix @20/1

Supreme Novices' Hurdle – Vercingetorix @33/1

Newbury’s Betfair Hurdle on Saturday is a great race for trends analysis. Briefly the trends point towards a 5yo or 6yo (account for all of the last 8 winners) with a top 3 finish LTO (13 of the last 16 winners). 14 of the last 16 winners came from the top 7 in the betting market.

Horses tackling this on their seasonal reappearance are 1-20 and horses with more than 4 seasonal runs are 2-58. Horses that have raced over 2m 5f and further are 0-50 and are ones to swerve. Horses carrying 10st to 10st 9lbs have won 7 of the last 10 renewals but this year only 3 of the 24 runners are set to carry 10st 9lbs or less. Perhaps a better statistic is that all bar 2 of the last 16 winners carried 11st 2lbs or less.

All that leaves us with just the one qualifier and that is Evan Williams’ runner On Tour @16/1. Ticking plenty of boxes but outside the top 7 in the betting are Chieftan’s Choice @20/1, Violet Dancer @33/1, Ballybolley @25/1, Arzal @33/1 and Forced Family Fun @40/1. The former appeals most from an each-way perspective:

On Tour @16/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)

Chieftan’s Choice @20/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)

If trends are not your thing then the trainers with a good record in the race are Gary Moore, who won this back-to-back in 2007 and 2008 and Nicky Henderson who has saddled 5 winners since 1997. David Pipe runners have reached the frame in 4 of the last 5 renewals at prices of 15/2, 8/1, 10/1 and 14/1. Nicky Henderson runs Sign Of A Victory @12/1 off top-weight and I would not put anyone off backing him given his trainer’s record in the race.

Gary Moore runs Violet Dancer at a big price and David Pipe has two in the shape of Balgarry @16/1 and Swing Bowler @33/1. Balgarry must have a decent chance after a cracking run last time out on only his second start after a long absence. Swing Bowler has finished 5th (beaten just 4 lengths) and 3rd in the last two renewals and could give each-way backers a run for their money off a similar mark.

It’s a tough race to call especially given the strength of support for Paul Nicholls’ favourite Calipto who could be thrown in off 143 and Activial who looks closely matched with Nicholls’ runner. Add in the record of Nicky Henderson and the puzzle becomes even harder to crack.

All things considered, the trends have nailed us numerous winners over the course of this column so I will stick with On Tour, despite dropping back in trip. His trainer has said that he is worth a crack at this race and it will help that he will see out the trip better than most if they likely go hard up front. Chieftan’s Choice @20/1, Balgarry @16/1 and Swing Bowler @33/1 will complete my four against the field.

Donald McCain Jr’s last 11 runners at Newcastle have finished 13P31231113. The stable is in decent form and he has the following entries at the time of writing:

2.55pm Luccombe Down
3.25pm Lively Baron
4.00pm Whatdoesthefoxsay

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Create your own speed ratings

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Multiple Bets

Nick Hardman Racing Tips