Tag Archives: Cup

Free Football Tips

If you like to know exactly why your tipster makes the bets he makes and you like to see just how much work goes into making winning selections then you’ll love Mark Foley.

Mark made 36 points profit in December with his Premier League bets and today I have his analysis and selections for the Sunderland V Liverpool game for you.

Last time we gave one of Mark’s analysis here it made a tasty profit for readers and wise owls joined his service here for just £9.99

http://footballforecasts.uk

Racing fans, don’t forget Nick Hardman gave his Lanzarote tips on yesterdays post.

Over to Mark Foley…

Sunderland v Liverpool 12.45 BT Sport1

Liverpool have been improving of late and their only defeat in the last 8 came at Old Trafford, they have also made the semi finals of the Capital One cup and are in the 4th round of the FA cup. However, you wouldn’t want one of their players to take your dog for a walk, they are still struggling to hold onto a lead and threw away a two goal lead against Leicester last week.

Sunderland have looked far more secure since Costel Pantilimon took over between the sticks, he has the best saves to shots ratio of any Premier League goalkeeper this season (78%) and although Sunderland have won just one of their last 10 league matches, they have only lost three of those ten games.

The Black Cats have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games against Liverpool but 4 of the games have ended as draws. Liverpool have won five of their last eight Premier League visits to the Stadium of Light (W5 D1 L2). One of those defeats back in 2009 saw the only Sunderland goal scored by a certain B.Ball; whatever happened to Mr beach ball?

Sunderland have scored a higher proportion of their goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League games than any other side (33%) and they have also picked up more yellow cards (52) than any other team in the top flight. Sunderland to come from behind and draw looks like a bit of value at 8/1 with Hills.

Liverpool have only been losing once after 45 in their last 15 PL games and have been all square in all but 3 of the last 13.

Sunderland have either been drawing 0-0 or 1-1 at HT in all but one of their last 10 PL games. Look towards a blank first half.

Sunderland have played every team currently in the top seven at home apart from Southampton and four of the six games have ended as draws. All but 3 of Sunderland’s 10 goals at home came in the first half hour of the games.

Liverpool have played five teams currently in the top half of the table away from Anfield and have lost four of them. If Sunderland do get an early goal, there is a good chance it will be Adam Johnson who has scored in three of his last four Premier League games.

Seven of the last 11 goals against the Black Cats were scored by Luis Suarez (plus two by Daniel Sturridge). All but one of Raheem Sterling’s 4 goals have come away from home and as long as Liverpool don’

My bets:

Draw/Draw: BetVictor 17/4

HT/FT correct score 0-0/1-1: Powers 16/1

Sunderland to come from behind and draw: Hills 8/1

Adam Johnson 1st goal: BetVictor 13/1

Also considered:

Correct score 1-1: BetVictor 13/2

Correct score HT 0-0: Boylesports 2/1

Raheem Sterling 1st goal: Widely available 5/1

Good Luck
Mark Foley

http://footballforecasts.uk

Grand National Tip :-o

Can I have more please? More Nick Hardman incites.

Yes it’s Friday and this week Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) has an improvement to yesterday’s Southwell system, an ante post bet for the Grand National and an angle and selections for today’s Cheltenham meeting.
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Yesterday we gave you a nice system for Keith Dalgleish’s handicap runners at Southwell. I was playing around with Horse Race Base and I found that we can improve on his already excellent performance at the Midlands track with a system that has a 50% strike rate in the last two years.

Using HRB I found that all bar one of his 19 winners at Southwell were in races at distances between 7f and 2m (his runners are 1-12 over 5f and 6f showing a loss of -£5.50).

In addition I found that Dalgleish has used 15 different jockeys for those 72 rides at Southwell. All the winners have been ridden by just three jockeys:

If we concentrate on 2013 and 2014 then we come up with a system showing a 50% strike rate in the last two years:

Rules: Keith Dalgleish runners at Southwell (AW) over 7f to 2m ridden by Tom Eaves or Simon Walker:

Runners = 30
Winners = 15
Places = 17
Win strike rate = 50%
Place strike rate = 57%
Profit/ Loss = +£62.41

When it comes to readying one for the Grand National, no one does it better than the McCain yard. This season their two Grand National horses appear to be Across The Bay and Kruzhlinin.

Jockey bookings (and finishing places) in the Becher Chase suggest Kruzhlinin is the stable first choice for the Big One. He was sent off at 33/1 to for the Becher Chase where he finished a never nearer, but highly respectable 7th.

I expected to see him at a similar price for the 2015 Grand National and could not believe that Skybet were offering 100/1. About 18 horses finish the Grand National these days and Kruzhlinin has shown that he gets round over these fences, having finished 10th back in April.

Effectively we are looking at 100/1 in an 18 runner race. Unfortunately Skybet have cut him to 50/1 but he is still available at 66/1 with a few firms. When I bet the Grand National I am primarily looking for a sound jumper with course experience and a fairly low weight.

Kruzhlinin ticks plenty of boxes and as apparent stable first string he rates decent ante-post value at 66/1.

Grand National ante-post tip: Kruzhlinin @66/1

Cheltenham’s December meeting kicks off today with the feature race being the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday and unfortunately my ante-post fancies John’s Spirit and Present View are not lining up.

Paul Nicholls is the most successful trainer at the December meeting in recent times with 14 winners since 2010 (from 50 runners, 28% strike rate).

At the December meeting since 2010 he is 4-10 with his chasers in class 1 and 2 races that have run at Cheltenham 2 or more times.

He has the following entries that fit that profile:

Friday:

12.30pm Vivaldi Collonges (chase debut, likely outsider of the four)

Saturday

12.50pm Virak & Katgary
2.00pm Caid Du Berlais

Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

Doncaster Hurdlers

Today we have our regular, winning advice from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders. (http://bettinginsiders.com )

Another Three Winners

We bagged another 3 winners last Friday although it was frustrating to see Trustan Times being badly impeded while in the process of running a big race in the Fixed Brush Hurdle on Saturday.  Still, that’s racing for you and we move on.  This week we take a look at a trainer with a fantastic record with his hurdlers and I will tell you where my money is going in the Hennessy Gold Cup on Saturday.

When I started writing this post I was looking for an angle for today’s Doncaster meeting and one trainer that caught my eye was John Quinn.  His record at Doncaster since 2010 is shown below:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.21.50

John Quinn has sent out 309 hurdlers in the last 5 seasons compared to 25 chasers and 27 bumper runners.  If we look at the performance of his hurdlers at Doncaster priced 20/1 or shorter the stats look even more impressive:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.26.18

That got me thinking about the performance of his hurdlers at other tracks.  He does exceptionally well (strike rate >30%) at many of the Northern tracks, especially Doncaster, Cartmel and Newcastle.  His hurdlers are worth noting at the following tracks:

Ayr, Ascot, Cartmel, Doncaster, Haydock, Hexham, Lingfield, Newbury, Newcastle, Perth, Wetherby and Worcester.  Backing all his hurdlers at these tracks, priced 20/1 or shorter since 2010 would have resulted in the following profits:

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.27.05

If you want a system with consistency then take a look at the yearly breakdown of John Quinn’s hurdlers at the courses we identified above.

Screen Shot 2014-11-27 at 13.28.01

John Quinn has 2 hurdlers entered at Newcastle on Saturday:

2.05pm Aurore D’Estruval @6/1

3.15pm Zermatt

Saturday also sees the Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury and it looks like a terrific renewal.  I have taken a look at the profiles of the previous winners and there are two that tick plenty of boxes.  The two trends horses I will be backing are:

Newbury 3.00pm Smad Place @8/1 and Rocky Creek @10/1

Henderson Hurdlers

So last week we looked at the Willie Mullins hurdlers and drilled down to see where the profit could be found.

Today I’m looking at Nicky Henderson who since January 1st 2013 has had a 23% strike rate with his hurdlers and you could have backed them all at industry SP and only lost 7% of your stakes.

So today I’m going to look at which jockeys do best on Henderson’s Hurdlers.

If we find anything interesting there then we will build on that later in the week.

Most of the rides go to Barry Geraghty but when Barry rides the return on investment gets worse dropping down to -9.5%.

Tony McCoy has taken 54 rides in the period and shows an amazing 44% strike rate for Nicky Henderson hurdlers and a return on investment of 20.19% which is also impressive, especially when you consider how many punters like to bet anything that AP rides.

The only other jockey showing a profit is new kid Nico de Boinville, you might remember he won the Coral Cup this year on Whisper when still a 5lb claimer.

His record for Nicky Henderson hurdlers is 34% strike rate and a whopping 97% return on investment, from 38 runs.

Later in the week we’ll look at courses for these horses, we’ll also take a closer look at Nico de Boinville.

Today’s Selection

3.20 Wolverhampton – Sleep Walk – win bet 2/1 Betfair Book

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