Tag Archives: daily selections

20/1 Cheltenham Bet

Today I have a Cheltenham bet from a tipster who made 65 points profit at last years festival and who set up the year for many of his members.

The bet is one leg of a yankee and if you want the other three legs there are details of a very special and cheap offer at the end of this post.

The four bets together will pay £29,248 for a 50 pence each way yankee if he pulls this off!

The Value Backing service is in great form at the moment and is already 33 points up for 2015 with a 118% ROI.

There have been winners this year already at  20/1, 18/1, 12/1 and shorter.

Here's the selection from Value Backing…

UPDATE – See The World will not run in the Champion Bumper 🙁

Champion Bumper Wednesday 11th March – See The World 1pt win @ 20’1 Betfred 

When it come to ante post betting at Cheltenham one of my favourite angles is to look for something out of the ordinary in a previous performance. Way back in 2005 I remember watching the great Kauto Star on just his second start for Paul Nicholls. He went through the race cruising in second gear only to fall at the second last. Back then a jockey could remount and Walsh having seen the winner go past him got back onboard and only just failed to win in a photo. Now the opposition may not have been world beaters, but that dramatic race indicated to me that Kauto could be something special and so it proved !
Now back in January this year at a cold damp day at Wincanton See The World put up something akin to that Kauto performance. He basically stopped to a walk 2 furlongs from home having taken up the lead and then hung left. What happened next is something I have never seen in a race. He started running again having given the ones that went by him 15 lengths start, caught them up and then breezed on by the runner up in the final 100 yard to win by 4 plus lengths and I was gobsmacked ! It is all well and good giving a few lengths  or so away at the start of a race, but 2 furlongs out, that should not have been possible.
Now again he may not have beaten much, but that performance was something out of the ordinary and as such I had to back See The World. He may well be a world beater only time will tell. But whatever happens at Cheltenham that performance at Wincanton is something I doubt I or anyone else will see again any time soon.
Carl Nicholson and Value Backing members cleaned up at last years festival with a whopping £653 profit to £10 stakes, with many members staking and winning much more.

This year you can join him on a special package for Cheltenham 2015.

Here's what you get…

  • A selection in every race at the 2015 festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing main service and Value Backing Extra selections from now until the festival
  • Access to all the Value Backing Daily selections every day from now until the festival
  • The sooner you join the more bets you get 🙂
  • The Value Backing ante-post Cheltenham Yankee, pays £29,248 for a 50 pence each way stake – the sooner you join the bigger the prices you can get!
  • Optional – discounted ongoing membership to Value Backing

The price is just £20 – Click Here to secure your place now.

Favourite Average Price Rise

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorseBot.com
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In the last couple or articles we have been looking at the results from an interactive test we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website.

Part of this test is also to discover if it is better to be on all the selections or to stop at the first winner of the day.

I picked 220 or above as my rating figure (see later why this may still be to low).

It hasn’t been the best of weeks for this number and it was only because of a 6.3 winner a couple of days ago that we are still showing any profit for this month.

This is a bit of a shame as it was a lot more positive last week…

…But that’s racing for you.

I am a statistical type of person so I don’t like to blame the weather.

And I do know this…

Favourites average prices tend to drop slightly in the winter.

I am not sure why but it could be that there are less races so they are more heavily backed than they normally would be.

But a quick check on the averages over the last couple of years shows that from the height in the summer of 3.5 (sometimes higher) in the winter this can drop to around 3.1.

And although the strike rate of this particular system has dropped off slightly…

…The amount of favourites winning is slightly better than the norm this month.

Which again, strangely, seems to happen around the winter months.

But back to the system test…

I am still not convinced that SAW is the best way to go but it is going to take more testing to actually make that decision.

If you crank the ratings figure up to 240 then things look a little better for all selections and it may be my choice of 220 was still a little low.

This will probably be my last report about this test for a few weeks.

Unless something amazing happens!

You can see the results from this test and get the daily selections here.

Thanks
Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

GreyHorseBot.com

Today's Selection

2:00 Lingfield Ershaad – win bet 5/6 Bet Victor

Stop at a Winner Systems

Today Malcolm from http://greyhorsebot.com is back with details of a test he is running on a stop at a winner system…

Stop at a winner.

Have you ever tried a stop at a winner system?

You know where you have a number of selections for the day but stop as soon as you get the first win?

The people against SAW argue…

…”If the selections you are using are profitable then why stop?”

Although I agree some of my experiments are showing that they can actually be just as profitable or more so over time.

It can also mean you don’t have to put up with so many losers.

There is no doubt that SAW won’t work for every system and they are more suited to high strike rate systems where you have a 40% or above strike rate.

This normally means you are on quite fancied and sometimes low priced runners.

Looking through the race cards and looking at just the 1st and 2nd favourites is a good place to start and can easily give you 3 or more selections to use each day if you carefully consider which ones to use.

The other thing you need to consider is stop loss.

I have found that on days where things are not going to plan it’s pointless to just keep going.

In fact it is better to get yourself out after 3 or 4 losses than it is to keep hoping for a win and then having to make up a lot of lost points.

Also by limiting your maximum loss does allow you to consider different staking options.

If you are interested I have set up and experiment over at the Grey Horse Bot web site.

The selections are chosen using 3 criteria.

– They must be highest ranked by price early in the morning (around 6am)
– Their in-house rating should be 100 or more (you can choose this figure)
– Their price must be the same or lower when we get the mid morning prices (11am to 11.30am)

I am calling it an “interactive” test because you can experiment with the rating number.

You can see the results using all the selections and SAW.

You can even get the daily selections so that you can follow along and see how it actually works.

Click Here to have a look


Thanks
Malcolm
Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

3.20 Southwell Red Stripes – win bet – 7/4 Paddy Power, Bet 365

Get your daily selections in half the time…

Today we have an article from Malcolm Pett who wants to tell you about a great little tool that will help you with your system selection.

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Hi there…

I was wondering…

…How much time do you spend trawling through race cards to pick out your daily selections?

If you’re like most people, probably a lot!

If you are running one or more systems that require you to select runners by their form then unless someone is sending you the daily selections, I guess you have to go through all of them daily.

And sometimes more than once…

Which can take a lot longer than the 10 minutes you were expecting.

When you’re in a rush it can seem to take forever and it can be quite frustrating and let’s be honest a little boring.

I know how you feel

In fact I felt the same way.

I remember one of the ones I have followed…

“Go through all the meetings and select a runner if…”

The race is a class 4 or 5


There are 10 or less runners


It’s not a Maiden


1st last time out


Ran within 45 days.


Horse is a Gelding”

That was an easy one!

But as I am a little lazy I decided to create a tool…

…So you can simply find your daily selections with a touch of a button.
(or a click)

Yeah it is software but it real easy to use.

And what’s really good is that you only have to use it once for each system.



You just tell the tool what you’re looking for by ticking some boxes and then once you are finished you are given a link.

This link can then be used to get your daily selections automatically in any browser.

It’s a “http:” link just like the one you used to get to this page.

But instead of seeing lots of writing and pretty pictures you get your daily selections instead.

How cool is that?

I know you may be thinking…

…”Are yeah but will it do xxxxxx?”

Well it has around 60 different race and form filters.

So even if it can’t exactly meet your criteria, it will at least save you some time by narrowing down your selections using some of the filters.

The link it creates can also be used with the Grey Horse Bot.

If you want to know more pop over to the Grey Horse Bot website and look at the new “Bonuses” section.

It is number 3 on the list.

Thanks
Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot – http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

2.25 Ludlow Gorsky Island – win bet – 9/2 Bet Victor Bet365

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