It’s Friday and here’s Nick Hardman from the Betting School Insiders Club.
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We had another terrific Friday last week courtesy of Nicky Henderson’s hurdlers and he rattled up a hat-trick across the cards with winners at 6/1, 4/1 and 9/4. With Chepstow abandoned and nothing making any appeal at Musselburgh, we turn out attention back to the AW and some qualifiers from the systems we are road testing over at the Betting School Insiders Club which are ticking over nicely.
There are no qualifiers from Lingfield but we have a few from the evening card at Wolverhampton below:
5.15pm Solar Deity & Linton
5.45pm Harwoods Star
6.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45 Go Packing Go & Sciustree
Solar Deity looks to have a good chance to get off the mark in 2015 after a string of placed efforts. He is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival on official ratings but is well-in under these weights. He rates a solid bet and I expect him to shorten so take the best morning price with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker.
Stablemate Linton needs to recapture the form that saw him win plenty of races in Australia and compete in a pair of Listed races on the flat last year. I would be as surprised as anyone if Linton were to take this from his stablemate but he is one that may tempt the each-way backers at a price.
Harwoods Star got turned over at 4/9 on his last start but has a chance of making amends here back up in trip and with7lb claimer Aaron Jones back on board. The yard are in excellent form too so he is worth another chance.
The same trainer and jockey team up on Little Lord Nelson in the next and he also has decent chance on handicap debut. The final race will most likely see Charlie Appleby’s New Approach colt Symbolic Star go off a warm order. If he takes a chunk out of the market that could see our two qualifiers go off at an each-way price.
Sciustree is related to plenty of winners and was 6th of 12 on debut and should improve for that experience. Go Packing Go is also well related and makes her debut here.
Saturday’s feature race is the Clarence House Chase which sees the return of the mighty Sprinter Sacre. I for one will be hoping he doesn’t just win this, but wins in the manner of a horse that totally dismisses his rivals. Racing needs superstars and we want this one back. With that in mind it is a watching race and not a betting race for me.
For a selection on Saturday I have run the rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock from a trends perspective.
We have a shortlist of 4 qualifiers in Vintage Star, Benbens, Amigo and Toby Lerone. Benbens had Amigo some 20 lengths behind in the Welsh National and I cannot see any reason why Amigo should turn the tables here.
Toby Lerone put in a career best last time when finishing second to Broadway Buffalo in the Tommy Whittle Chase at this venue. He is up 6lbs for that and could still be improving. That was on heavy ground too, which he will likely get again on Saturday.
Vintage Star is 4lbs lower than when runner-up in this race last year. He is also back down to his last winning mark that saw him win a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on heavy ground over 3m 1f.
He has not performed that well in 3 starts this season but he has yet to see really testing ground which he may well get on Saturday. Trainer Suzy Smith has an excellent record in the race having trained 2 winners, a runner-up and two third placed finishers since 2000.
It’s a leap of faith but I am willing to make him one of my selections from the shortlist in the hope this is a true test of stamina.
I am torn between Benbens and Toby Lerone for my second selection but I will side with Benbens as the father & son Twiston-Davies combination has been in fine form recently. In addition he was travelling as well as anything in the Welsh National until running out of gas about three flights from home. Back down in trip I think he can go well.
Saturday Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Star e/w
Benbens e/w
The one runner who does interest me on Saturday’s cards is super-tough mare Carole’s Spirit in the Mare’s Hurdle race at Ascot.
A winner of 4 of her 5 starts her only defeat came at the hands of Highland Retreat who has gone on to be an exciting novice chaser for Harry Fry.
Against her own sex and proven over track, trip and ground I expect her to go very close.
Saturday Ascot 1.50pm
Carole’s Spirit
Good Luck
Nick Hardman
Betting School Insiders Club
Weekend Football Review
Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…
A Preview of this Weekends Action
As the Premier League enters its final phase one thing we did find out last weekend was that Arsenal don’t have the necessary mental strength to maintain a challenge for the whole season.
Their loss to Chelsea last Saturday was not just psychologically damaging but emphatically destructive. Yes there were dreadful mistakes made by the officials but that can’t paper over the cracks that have appeared in Arsene Wenger’s squad.
If he is to repeat and improve upon this superb attempt at the title next season then there can have been no clearer message delivered by Chelsea – you need a greater strength in depth and MUST add quality to your squad in the summer.
The money is there for Wenger and he needs to use it wisely and buy 2 or 3 world class players.
So, now the title chase has narrowed down to just three, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. Theoretically Arsenal can catch up the six point gap but in the form that they are in I just can’t see any of the top three dropping many points.
This weekend Jose Mourinho takes his men on the short journey across London to face a Crystal Palace side still fighting bravely against relegation. With the Blues in imperious form at the moment I can see no other result other than a comprehensive victory for the league leaders.
Manchester City, although in third place are sitting pretty. They are just three points behind Chelsea but have two games in hand and this weekend’s game at the Emirates Stadium against Arsenal could prove vital to their efforts to take the title.
The Gunners are a wounded beast after the defeat to Chelsea and a lack lustre display against Swansea in midweek. Will they be able to rouse themselves enough to ward off Everton’s challenge to their fourth place in the league?
I’m not so sure they will since the Citizens like Chelsea are in fantastic form. Their last five games has seen them score 11 and concede no goals at all. The form of Champions, surely?
This remains the most interesting game of the weekend – Arsenal have the ability to damage City’s challenge but do they possess the self belief? I see a narrow win for City but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Gunners snatch a draw.
Brendan Rogers and his Liverpool side must wait until Sunday to resume their challenge. I have to admit I suspected that their attempt at the title would have faltered by now – like Arsenal – but they continue to steam roller sides and score with delightful aplomb.
They play a Tottenham side who have performed very poorly against the top sides this season and will no doubt remember the 5 goal drubbing at the hands of Liverpool at White Hart Lane back in December.
The Reds have now won seven league games on the bounce and with the Lilywhites form very much Jekyll and Hyde I expect a home win and wouldn’t be surprised to see Spurs keeper Hugo Lloris getting a severe back ache after picking the ball out of the net several times.
It has to be said that I never thought I would be commenting on a Manchester United side that had lost six times at Old Trafford in one season and that those defeats would have been so comprehensive.
Last weekend David Moyes and his men lost in the Manchester derby by another three goal margin and one does have to wonder just how much longer the owners of the club will keep faith with their choice of manager.
Of course when Sir Alex took control of the Red Devils his first few months were poor. He was it is rumoured on the verge of the sack more than once but came through and I’d bet those in charge were glad they game him the time to get it right. However, the two United’s we are looking at are quite different.
Sir Alex’s first players were not world class – David Moyes’s are or at least were last season. Their total dominance over everyone last season was remarkable in that the same set of players this season seem so hapless.
They get the chance to resurrect their season tomorrow against Aston Villa and even though a Champions League place is probably out of reach I fear for Moyes’s position should they be unable to qualify for any form of European football next season.
As for their opponents Aston Villa, one would do well to be aware that they are not going to be a pushover. They have already this season defeated Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City and it wouldn’t surprise me if they added Manchester United to that list.
Once more as seems to be the case every week we see a couple of six point games at the foot of the table. Swansea have been in freefall of late and they need to get a win under their belt and get it quickly.
This weekend they play Norwich and if any side can emerge a winner then the three points gained could prove vital come the end of the season. A draw is the likely result given the lack of a cutting edge on display from both sides at the moment but this will do neither of them any favours.
Fortune as they say favours the brave and at this stage of the season some of these clubs facing relegation must start to play some good attacking football and try to force results rather than retreating into their shells and hoping a point will be enough for them.
The other relegation six pointer is at the Hawthorns as West Brom take on fellow strugglers Cardiff. A loss for Cardiff could prove terminal as they have in recent weeks begun to drift away from the pack at the bottom.
Although they are only three points from fourth bottom Crystal Palace they have played more games and with opportunities to win points becoming few and far between now they must start to win some games.
A loss this weekend and a win for their opponents West Brom will stretch the gap to six points and with a vastly inferior goal difference and having played one more game it could be curtains for the club from South Wales.
Top Tips
Once again there seems to be some easy money to be taken from the bookies this weekend as I expect both Chelsea (4/9) and Liverpool (5/11) to win and win comprehensively but for a slightly better return on your stake why not cash in on some more Moyes misery as I’d go for an away win for the Villans at Old Trafford at generous odds of 15/2.
If Villa do win it might be worth a quick punt on David Moyes to be the next manager to get the sack at 8/1.
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Today’s Selection
4.15 Newcastle – Robbie – 10/1 Boylesports
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