Tag Archives: Denman

King George Tips

A big days racing today with the highlight being the King George Chase.

Tomorrow we have the Welsh National to look forward to.

Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) looks at both races and gives his selections.
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Last week we landed 2 winners from 4 selections at SP’s of 15/2 and 7/4.

This week we turn our attention to the two big races over the Xmas period – the King George VI Chase and the Welsh National.

I have covered both races in detail in the latest issue of the Betting Insiders Magazine and my opinion for the King George has not changed in that Silviniaco Conti is the best staying chaser in training right now.

I put him up as an ante-post tip in the Betting Insiders December issue @4/1.

He is now a best priced 5/2 and if you think that is value then back him.

Cue Card has disappointed this season and was out-stayed by Silviniaco Conti in last year’s King George and I cannot see him reversing that form. Champagne Fever had a hit-and-miss novice season. He was beaten in both the Leopardstown Xmas festival and Punchestowns Festival and arguably his best performance was his 2nd place finish in the Arkle. He was impressive on his seasonal reappearance when he beat Alderwood over 2 ½ miles.

The King George is much tougher and he is too short in my opinion at 10/3.

Al Ferof easily won the Amlin Chase over 2m 3f at Ascot in November and was third in the King George last year (beaten 14 ½ lengths). He has won 5 of his 11 chase starts but has come up short tackling 3 miles in the past. He was slammed 25 lengths by Harry Topper in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury last February over 3 miles and followed that up with a disappointing 5th in the Ryanair.

I think his form flatters to deceive and I cannot see him winning this year’s King George.

I think Dynaste is a much better each-way proposition as he definitely gets the 3 mile trip and ran Silviniaco Conti to within 1 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at Aintree in April. Beaten 10 lengths by Silviniaco Conti in November’s Betfair Chase was a decent effort first time out this season and I think he rates a danger to the favourite.

He is one for the each-way backers @14/1 or those who want to play the place market.

King George VI Chase:

Selection: Silviniaco Conti @5/2
Each-way alternative: Dynaste @8/1

The Welsh National is a great race for trends analysis and this is the typical profile:

• Aged 7yo or 8yo
• A top 4 finish LTO
• Carrying 10-09 or less (10-0 or 10-01 if the going is heavy)
• Had last raced 16 – 60 days previously
• Had 1 or 2 runs in the current season
• Had previously raced over 3m 5 ½ furlongs of further (preferably 4+ miles)

Those that currently fit the profile are Global Power, Amigo and Emperor’s Choice.

It remains to be seen if any make the final cut.

Amigo for David Pipe was runner up in the trial race 3 weeks ago and finished 7th in this last year. He has winning form at Chepstow over 3 miles and acts on the ground.

Oliver Sherwood’s Global Power has bits and pieces of form over staying trips including a 4th place finish in 2013 Midlands National and a win in the Cumberland Handicap Chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground in 2013 and a 2nd place finish in the same race 12 months later.

Emperor’s Choice for Venetia Williams won the 2013 Surrey National over 3m 4f on heavy ground and followed that up with a win in the West Wales National in 2014 over 3m 4f. His chase form on heavy going reads 2111612. A thorough stayer if ever there was one.

Welsh National trends horses:

Global Power @25/1
Emperor’s Choice @25/1
Amigo @14/1

Aintree Grand National Meeting Tips

Today we have an interesting article from Mark Foley of Trainer Trends about the Aintree Grand National meeting that kicks off tomorrow.

But before we get to the article I just want to tell you about the big race trends service that Mark is offering for the three days of the Aintree festival.

If you joined Mark for Cheltenham then you will know that he had a very profitable Cheltenham. The highlight for me was using the Free £50 bet that Bet Victor gave on Champagne Fever at 7/1.

Mark is doing exactly the same for Aintree for just £14.99 for the 3 days – Click Here to secure a place for this.

Ok, over to the article which will hopefully steer you away from some losers…

How does Cheltenham form hold up at Aintree?

Backing favourites isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but knowing whether a favourite is strong or weak is fundamental to having a bet. It’s impossible to ignore Cheltenham form when it comes to forming the market at Aintree and the bookies have often got it horribly wrong, horses that looked invincible at Cheltenham a few weeks earlier have looked a shadow of themselves at Aintree.

In the past 10 years you would have made a small 3% loss following the 147 Aintree favourites who earned their market position on the back of their run at the Cheltenham festival. Two completely different tracks; left handed; right handed; undulating; flat; stiff finish; flat finish, long run in. So is it worth backing a Cheltenham horse that goes off as favourite at Aintree?

It would have taken a brave man to oppose the following horses after their scintillating performances at Cheltenham Denman (twice; Evens and 5/4); Imperial commander 11/8; Master Minded 2/5; Albertas Run 6/4; Kauto Star 4/7. They all got turned over at Aintree of course despite their short prices, so how do you find a reliable favourite at Aintree?

The first point to note is that runners that finished in the first 2 at Cheltenham tended to do well at Aintree; add in the runners that didn’t finish their race at the festival but still went off as favourites and the results are transformed.

All but 7 of the 43 winners either finished in the first two at Cheltenham or failed to finish and as the table below illustrates they were profitable to follow:

Grand National Aintree Trends


Impressive figures and following such runners would have seen you make a profit in all but 2 of the last 9 Aintree festivals. 

The next salient point is that the favourites over the shorter distances had the best record; it would appear that the speedsters don’t have quite as much taken out of them as the runners over longer distances. Seventeen winners from only 28 runners for a 107% return in races over 16 and 16 ½ f.

Aintree Favourites

The following trainers did particularly well:

(Runners who went off as favourites at Aintree having run at the Cheltenham Festival).

Aintree Profitable Trainers

The above four trainers have provided over 50% of the 47 winning favourites who also ran at the Cheltenham festival in the past 10 years and Nicky Henderson’s record in recent years has been particularly impressive.

In conclusion, following the runners who went off as favourites at Aintree who finished in the first 2 (or failed to finish) at the Cheltenham festival; runners over the shortest distances and runners trained by the above trainers proved to be reliable favourites and were profitable to follow.

All the best Mark.

Today's Selection

Wetherby 4.40 Musnad – win bet – evens Paddy Power

Gold Cup – Oppose Long Run

We've got a piece from Mark Foley today on the Gold Cup but before we get into that I want to tell you about a special offer for Mark's Cheltenham service.

Mark will be running his trends eye over all the Cheltenham races and giving his analysis along with details of the selections he will be backing.

As a bonus to his Cheltenham service Mark is giving full access to his Trainer Trends service up to the end of April all for just £14.99.

Click Here

Why I won’t be backing Long Run in the Gold Cup:
(figures since 1997 unless otherwise specified).

A quick question. How many multiple winners of the Gold Cup have there been in the past 40 years?

The answer is two.

Best Mate won at a time when staying Chasers were at rock bottom and Kauto Star is the best staying Chaser since the great Arkle in the sixties.

No other Championship race at Cheltenham comes close to being as difficult to win on more than one occasion.

Multiple winners of this race are a rarity, it is hard to continually run over 3 miles over fences, which takes its toll as runners reach the limits of their endurance, meaning injuries are inevitable in the long run.

The extra 2 furlongs, the frantic pace and the stiff finish take a lot out a horse. Paul Nicholls mentioned in his Autobiography that Denman was lifeless for three weeks after his win.

Since 1990, all but 2 of the Gold Cup winners were 7-9 year olds.

Only one of the forty one 10yos won and only 4 made the frame. (11yo and older were 0 from 30 and only 4 placed)

French bred Long Run was a freak at 6yo, the first 6yo winner since 1962.

Long Run and Kauto Star were French Breds; they have a much better record as youngsters. 6 and 7 yo French bred runners were 2 from 13 and 4 were placed; 8yo French Breds were 1 from 35 and only 4 made the frame.

Even Kauto Star failed to dominate here once age caught up with him.

Kauto Star at 8yo and older in Gold Cup: Kauto Star was the French exception as he retained his title as a 9yo, but had a 1 from 5 record in the Gold cup once he reached the age of eight.

Still a wonderful record but the dividing line at the top is remarkably fine.

He may still have been able to do it as an older horse at Kempton but not Cheltenham. Remember we are talking about a freak of a horse, the best staying chaser since Arkle.

It’s not just Kauto Star:

Date Horse Odds Position

2012 Kauto Star (FR) 3/1 PU/14

2011 Kauto Star (FR) 5/1 3rd/13

2010 Kauto Star (FR) 8/11 F/11

2009 Exotic Dancer (FR) 8/1 3rd/16

2009 Kauto Star (FR) 7/4 1st/16

2009 Neptune Collonges (FR) 15/2 4th/16

2008 Exotic Dancer (FR) 17/2 5th/12

2008 Kauto Star (FR) 10/11 2nd/12

2006 Monkerhostin (FR) 13/2 6th/22

2003 Hussard Collonges (FR) 8/1 PU/15

The winners aged 8 or older tend to be Irish Bred runners; 5 from 34 with 9year olds.

Silviniaco Conti (7yo) and Sir De Champs (7yo) are both French Bred, whereas Bobs Worth (8yo) is Irish bred and as Cheltenham specialists look like far better bets to me than Long Run.

All the best Mark.

Today's Selection

Southwell 2.40 Hot Sugar – each way bet- 8/1 Will Hill

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