Tag Archives: discussion

80% Strike Rate So Far This Year

Last week I read an article on Geegeez website that blew my socks off.

So today I want to encourage you to read it.

The article is Matt Bisogno's review of the London Racing Club get together, which might sound like a dull report on some trainer or other being interviewed.

But it also includes some excellent insights that were shared by this months interviewees, who were the Hill family (Lawney et al…).

It includes the bones of a system that has seen 4 winners from 5 so far this year.

I know it's only January  26th, but even so there is some potential for a decent system based on Paul Nichols horses that wear headgear for the first time.

I've added this to my notebook for future research.

There's also a discussion about the use of tongue ties which could also lead to a profitable system with some further research.

Go and have a read and later in the week we'll see if we can boil this idea down into a system that we can use for the rest of the season.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/

By the way if you are fed up with the Racing Post racecards and you want something faster and easier to digest try the Geegeez Gold racecards – Click Here

Today's selection comes from the Geegeez Shortlist report which is normally available to Gold members only, but on a Tuesday is available to all. (There are another 7 selections on this free report today – Click Here)

Today's Selection

Southwell 2:10 Abi Scarlett – win bet – 5/4 Will Hill

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Longest Losing Run

Smart SiggerI've just been catching up with my reading, with this months Smart Sigger magazine.

This months issue includes Ebor Handicap Trends, a piece on the wisdom of crowds that looks at why starting prices reflect the true chance of a horse, a continuation of their implementation of a Bayes Theorem method. A system for betting debutantes in handicaps and an interesting piece about why you shouldnt always use past results as an indication of future performance.

But the piece I want to talk about today is a discussion of whether you are a gambler or an investor, which provided a reminder of the formula that you can use to calculate your longest expected losing run.

I think we have published this formula before but it's always worthwhile to revisit important fundamentals.

The gist of the article was that if you dont stake your bets consistently with your longest expected losing run then you are a gambler not an investor.

The formula for working out the longest expected losing run for a given strike rate is

LOG(Number of selections)/-LOG(1-Strike Rate)

If, like me you no longer have your log tables to hand, then you will need to use Excel or something similar to make the calculation.

By way of an example lets assume that we expect to make 400 bets this season and that the methods we use have a strike rate of 20%.

The 20% has to be converted to a decimal number, so we divide by 100 to give 0.20.

So the calculation is

LOG(400)/-LOG(1-0.20) = 26.85

So with a 20% strike rate over 400 bets we can expect a losing run of between 26 and 27.

Eddie Lloyd who wrote the piece goes on to state that if you intend to be an investor and not a gambler you had better have a bank and a stake size that can cope with the losing runs you can expect.

You can get your first issue of Smart Sigger for free – Click Here

Today's Selection

Lingfield 6.35 O Gorman – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet Victor

 

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Draw Bias

Beverley is a course that is known for it's draw bias.

And my research does confirm that there is an advantage to a low draw (1 or 2) especially at 5 furlongs.

But there has been lots of discussion and attempts to balance this out over the years.

So although there is an advantage and it is a positive if the horse you fancy is drawn 1 or 2 I don't see a profit from simply following low drawn horses here.

As with all these things you're more likely to find profit where others don't look.

While looking at the course layouts for todays meetings I noticed that at Hamilton the 1 mile and 1 mile 1 furlong starts are on a bend.

Often a draw bias comes about as a result of the way the water drains from the course and it is hard to correct. And is usually believed to only effect shorter distances.

But to me the draw advantage that gets overlooked is when it effects longer distances and that usually happens when the starting stalls are on a bend and a lead is an advantage.

So I've looked at the figures for Hamilton.

If you just backed runners from stall 1 over 1 mile or 1 mile 1 furlong then over the last 11 years you would have made an 8% return on investment at industry SP.

I suspect those profits would be much larger at Betfair Sp because there are some big priced winners in the list.

The strike rate for stall 1 over these distances has fluctuated greatly over the years and I have an old Raceform book from 2004 that declares that high stalls are favoured over these distances.

So it might be that work has gone on to change the bias and it has switched.

But looking at 2012, 2013 and this year shows a huge profit for stall 1 with a 70% ROI and a strike rate up to 20%.

So this seems to be a current bias and one worth taking note of.

Today's races at the distance are 2.40 & 3.40.

Today's Selection

Hamilton 2.40 Incurs Four Faults – win bet – 7/2 Bet Victor

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Rolling Doubles Staking Plan

This idea started off as an argument in a pub, but I'm sober now and it still seems to make sense!

So the conversation started with a discussion about how doubles, trebles, accas etc were mugs bets and bookie benefits.

Then it moved onto examples of where a double was a solid bet because it multiplied the value and it ended with me promising to test a theory out on one of our odds on systems.

You'll remember a while back we published a system for backing odds on shots when certain jockeys were on board.

Well I've taken the results for that system back to March 2011 and compared level stakes back betting at SP with betting a rolling doubles staking plan.

The theory being that because it is a high strike rate system that there will be lots of winning runs. And more winning runs than losing runs, so it makes sense to bet the selections in doubles instead of singles!

So here's how I've calculated this…

Race 1 Horse 1
Race 2 Horse 2
Race 3 Horse 3
Race 4 Horse 4

We bet a double on Horse 1 with Horse 2, we also bet a double on Horse 2 with Horse 3 and so on.

So the next bet will be a double on Horse 3 with Horse 4.

Sometimes these horses will run on different days, in which case you bet a single and if it wins you place the whole return on the next qualifier on the day that it runs.

How did that work out?

Well level staking over the 449 bets produced a profit of 46.79 which is a 10.4 % Return on Investment (ROI).

Rolling doubles staking produced a profit of 96.26 which is a 21.4% ROI which is almost double! Spooky!

Today's Selection

3.00 Leicester Kodafine – win bet – 4/1 Bet 365

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