distance Archives • Daily Punt

Create your own speed ratings

Posted on February 18, 2015 by Dave French • 1 Comment

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

Filed Under: Systems
... ..., accuracy, article, average speed, bet, Bet Victor, bot, boxes, calculation, calculations, card, chance, comments, comments boxes, constant speeds, course, data, different ratings, distance, Doncaster, Doncaster Rathlin, fact, form, furlongs, Great, great deal, Grey Horse Bot, guess, head, Head  NK, horse, Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com, horses, horses chance, http://greyhorsebot.com, ideas, information, lengths, mile, miles, neck, need, nose, Nose  SH, notice, number, pace, people, potential winners, question, race, race card, race distances, race pace, Race Times, races, racing, ran my calculations, ratings, reading, real way, run, runner, runners, runs, selection, short head, Short Head  HD, shorter distances, shorter races, simple, speed ratings, thanks, Thanks Malcolm, things, thoughts, time, US., way, win, Win bet, winner, winners, work, yards, |Winners |Strike Rate

Henderson Profit

Posted on December 2, 2014 by Dave French • 1 Comment

So every Tuesday Horse Race Base send out an email that details how the systems that you have saved have performed since the day you saved them.

This morning as I do every week I reviewed the list to see what's working and what's not.

The first pleasing result was from the Nicky Henderson Debutant system we published at the beginning of November.

As you'll recall this was sent in by a reader, Derek.

Here are the results since we published the rules…

Runs = 9
Wins = 4
Strike Rate = 44%
Profit at industry SP = 12.25
ROI = 136%

So today's message is short and sweet, keep an eye on this system for more winter profits.

Here's a recap of the rules…

Run at one of these courses: Ascot, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Doncaster, Exeter, Ffos Las, Fontwell, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown, Stratford, Towcester, Uttoxeter, Wincanton

Race Distance is 2m6f or less

Horse is have it's first run and is trained by Nicky Henderson.

It's price is between Evens and 16/1.

It is 6 years old or younger.

And we only bet in the main season between October to March inclusive.

Today's Selection

3.40 Wolverhampton Sioux Chieftain – win bet 11/4 Bet Victor

Filed Under: Systems
... ..., Ascot, bet, Bet Victor, Cheltenham, Chepstow, courses, Derek, details, distance, Doncaster, email, evens, eye, Ffos Las, Fontwell, horse, horse race, Horse Race Base, industry, industry SP, Kempton, list, main season, message, morning, Newbury, Nicky Henderson, Nicky Henderson Debutant, pleasing result, price, profit, profits, race, race distance, recap, result, results, ROI, rules, run, runs, Sandown, season, selection, SP, strike rate, systems, Towcester, Tuesday Horse Race, Uttoxeter, win, Win bet, Wincanton Race Distance, wins, winter, winter profits, Wolverhampton, Wolverhampton Sioux Chieftain, |Winners |Strike Rate

Long Distance Jockeys

Posted on November 25, 2014 by Dave French • 3 Comments

I've just been reading an article by Josh Wright where he shares a jockey angle to profit from.

Basically he's uncovered three jockeys that do exceptionally well in races of 3 miles and longer.

…all three are clearly superb judges of pace, either winding up their mounts from the front or pouncing at the right time to take the prize. They also give their horses confidence at their fences as well as getting the firepower to go to war with.

The three jockeys are James Reveley, Paul Moloney and Paddy Brennan.

James Reveley

Rules:-
Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
September-April Inclusive
Class 2,3,4,5
20/1 or below
Results (2010-) :-

James Reveley has had a consistent record for some time in these types of races and is a superb horseman as well as a great judge of pace. His mounts should always be kept onside during main National Hunt season over these marathon trips.

Paul Moloney
Rules:-
Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
November-April inclusive
Class 1,2,3,4
20/1 or under
Results (2010-):-

Paul Moloney is renowned for waiting out the back on his mounts and timing his challenge perfectly. To perform 77% above market expectations says everything about his ability to win on horses that the market has not given a chance to. His rides in long distance handicap chases are always worth a second look.

Paddy Brennan

Rules:-
Handicap Chases, 3 miles to 3 miles 4 furlong inclusive.
Class 3,4,5
12/1 or under
Results (2010-) :-

Paddy Brennan is a superb rider over 3miles-3m4f in the lower classes of racing. He is best known in recent years for his association with Tom George, however he also gets plenty of rides for Fergal O’Brien and the odd ride for other trainers. Definitely a rider who gives confidence to his mounts and who judges pace superbly. He is still underestimated by the market.

These 3 have won nearly 400 points to BFSP since the beginning of 2010 and they are showing no signs of stopping anytime soon.

Read the original article and others at http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/

Today's Selection

12:10:00 Southwell Company Secretary – win bet 15/8 Bet 365

Filed Under: Systems
... ..., ability, angle, article, bet, BFSP, challenge, chance, Class, classes, consistent record, distance, distance handicap chases, fences, Fergal O’Brien, Great, great judge, handicap chases, horses, horses confidence, Inclusive Class, James Reveley, James Reveley Rules, jockey, jockey angle, jockeys, Josh Wright, long distance, look, lower classes, main National Hunt, marathon trips, market, market expectations, miles, mounts, National Hunt, National Hunt season, November-April inclusive Class, odd ride, original article, O’Brien, pace, Paddy, Paddy Brennan, Paddy Brennan Rules, Paul Moloney, Paul Moloney Rules, plenty, points, prize, profit, races, racing, reading, results, rides, right, right time, rules, season, selection, September-April Inclusive Class, signs, Southwell, Southwell Company Secretary, superb horseman, superb judges, superb rider, time, Tom, Tom George, trainers, trips, types, UK, war, win, Win bet, Won, worth, |Winners |Strike Rate

Henderson Debutants System

Posted on November 5, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

We have a fellow Daily Punt reader to thank for today's micro system.

Derek posted the following micro system in the comments yesterday.

Here's what Derek said…

I use a micro system for Henderson and it’s based on debutants having first run under UK rules. It is based mainly on NH flat and hurdles. I know you use horseracebase so I’ve just cut and pasted my rules.

Here are the rules in plain English as opposed to HRBish!

Henderson Debutants System

National Hunt races.

Run at one of these courses: Ascot, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Doncaster, Exeter, Ffos Las, Fontwell, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown, Stratford, Towcester, Uttoxeter, Wincanton

Race Distance is 2m6f or less

Horse is have it's first run and is trained by Nicky Henderson.

It's price is between Evens and 16/1.

It is 6 years old or younger.

And we only bet in the main season between October to March inclusive.

Heres the overall performance since 2003.

And here's the breakdown by year

Back to Derek…

You will see that it has performed steadily year after year since 2003.

Henderson repeats the same training routine year after year and this has allowed me to have the above and two other micro systems (handicap hurdles and mares) on the man from severn barrows.

Regards

Derek

Excellent, thanks Derek 🙂

Today's Selection

2.10 Chepstow Jumps Road – win bet – 5/1 Bet 365

Filed Under: Systems
... ..., Ascot, bet, breakdown, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Chepstow Jumps Road, comments, courses, cut, Daily Punt, Daily Punt reader, Debutants, Derek, distance, Doncaster, English, evens, fellow Daily Punt, Ffos Las, Flat, Fontwell, Handicap Hurdles, Henderson Debutants, horse, horseracebase, hurdles, jumps, Kempton, main season, man, micro systems, National Hunt, National Hunt races, Newbury, Nicky Henderson, overall performance, performance, plain English, price, Punt, race, race distance, races, regards, Regards Derek Excellent, road, rules, run, Sandown, season, selection, severn barrows, systems, Thank, thanks, thanks Derek, Towcester, UK, UK rules, US., Uttoxeter, win, Win bet, Wincanton, Wincanton Race Distance, |Winners |Strike Rate

Tag Archives: distance

Create your own speed ratings

Henderson Profit

Long Distance Jockeys

Henderson Debutants System