Tag Archives: each-way shout

Betfred Mile Tips

Today we are joined by Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders who has analysed the Betfred King George Stakes and the Betfred Mile.

To get access to all Nick's tips join him at http://bettinginsiders.com

The Glorious Goodwood festival is in full flow and Friday sees the Group 2 Betfred King George Stakes over 5f and the 20 runner Betfred Mile heritage handicap. I have run the rule over the entries and hopefully identified a few likely types including a 28/1 outsider for the feature sprint.

3.05pm Betfred Mile (Heritage handicap) 1m

A big field handicap over a mile and it is worth applying some trends to try and whittle the field down to a few likely contenders.

16 of the last 17 winners were all aged 3 to 5yo
14 of the last 17 winners had a previous win at the distance
All bar two of the winners since 1997 had raced in the last 30 days
14 of the winners since 1997 had run to a top 5 finish LTO

That leaves us with a short list of three – Velox, Russian Realm and Heavy Metal.

With Russian Realm doubtful we are left with the top two in the betting. These horses are those that best match the profiles of previous winners since 1997.

Trends selections: Velox @7/1 and Heavy Metal @9/1

3.40pm King George Stakes 5f

Caspian Prince looks a tad overpriced @28/1 given he has some decent form on downhill tracks including a win in the Epsom dash earlier this year.

This is an obvious step up in class but he is a speedy type who should be suited by the track and must have an each-way shout if the rain stays away (best form on good to firm).

Demora is another who brings good handicap form to the table and is worth a crack at this level. On form then Extortionist looks the one to beat but is priced up accordingly.

Tropics also has top notch Group form including a career best runner up spot to Slade Power in the July Cup.

However, this is his first attempt at the minimum trip.

Hamza has a Group 3 win to this name three starts back (Es Que Love back in 2nd) and will most likely attempt to make all. He looks a solid back-to-lay proposition.

Last year’s winner Moviesta has failed to go on this year but his figures over 5f on good or good to firm are excellent. I think he will run well.

Likeliest winner: Extortionist @9/2
Alternative: Moviesta @8/1
Each-way alternatives: Caspian Prince @28/1

Finally don’t forget to keep an eye out for the 2yo Godolphin runners at Newmarket this Friday and Saturday. We have previously highlighted their performance at the July course over the last 5 years and they have proved very profitable to follow for this column in the last 4 weeks.

Nick Hardman
http://bettinginsiders.com

Please follow and like us:

Weekend Racing Selections

Happy Saturday. Today we have a weekend racing review from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders which includes 6 selections.

Before that I should just mention that the Bet 365 free in play bet is back for the Champions League tonight.

Basically if you bet £50 pre-off then you get a free £50 in play, we've covered how to get a free £35 out of this many times before as have many others.

Weekend Racing Selections

We have some great racing this weekend with exciting cards at Haydock and Goodwood and the Irish 2000 and 1000 Guineas. I have gone through the cards at Haydock and Goodwood in search of some decent prices and some each-way value.

In the opener at Haydock, Glenard looks a solid betting proposition after a cracking 5th in the Chester Cup from a less than ideal draw. Travelling as well as any, he failed to get home that day and the drop back to 2 miles should be in his favour. The booking of in-form Ryan Moore is a big plus and 5/1 is just about value. With all bookmakers going ¼ odds, 3 places you can spread the risk by backing him each-way at that price if you wish.

The 6f Class 3 handicap at 2.05 looks wide open and one horse who is worth a second look is Out Do. He has some smart form from last year, winning twice for Luca Cumani.

Perhaps his best run was when finishing 3rd, beaten 2 ¼ lengths in a Class 2 handicap at Windsor by Tropics (now rated 115) and Rex Imperator (now rated 110 and a subsequent winner of the Steward’s Cup at Glorious Goodwood). Now rated 90, Out Do ran better than the bare result at York in a Class 2 handicap last time out and he takes a slight drop in class here. He could go well at a nice price.

The Temple Stakes at Haydock pitches the proven older horses Sole Power and Kingsgate Native against the rising stars of sprint racing in Hot Streak and Pearl Secret. With 13 of the last 17 winners coming from the top 4 in the betting and 7 of the last 8 winners returning at odds of 8/1 or less, it looks best to focus on those at the head of the market.

Hot Streak appears to be all the rage having been backed into 9/4 outright favouritism and Sole Power, an impressive winner of the Palace House Stakes, outright second favourite. Hot Streak is the one I would want to be on if the word “soft” appears in the going, with Kingsgate Native and Sole Power undoubtedly preferring a sounder surface. Of the others, Jack Dexter has never won above Group 3 level and there is little to suggest that will change judged on his two runs so far this season.

Hawkeyethenoo has done all his winning in handicap company and is priced accordingly.
At the prices the value has to lie with Kingsgate Native, winner of this race in 2010 and 2013 and runner up to Sole Power in 2011. You could argue that Sole Power had match fitness on his side in the Palace House Stakes but in reality there is not much to choose between Hot Streak, Sole Power and Kingsgate Native. As long as the ground is good or better I am happy to back the old boy each-way @7/1 with Bet365 who offer ¼ odds, 3 places.

On the same card I am going to give an each-way shout to Clive Cox’s Perfect Blessings in the 6f Listed race for fillies at 3.10pm. If the forecast rain changes the going to the soft side of good then I will be even happier. Clive Cox’s twice-raced filly scored an emphatic win over subsequent winner Penny Drops, who incidentally was 3rd on debut behind 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder. She takes a big hike in class here but she also holds a Group 3 entry in the Ballyogan Stakes at Leopardstown, so she must be held in high regard by connections.

Over at Goodwood, the race that interests me is the 4.40pm Class 4 handicap for older horses (6yo+) over 6f. Five C&D winners line up and the two I like are Slip Sliding Away for Peter Hedger and last year’s winner Mon Brav. Peter Hedger does really well with his handicappers at the track and Slip Sliding Away has recorded 3 of his 4 wins here. A return to Goodwood might just be the ticket for him to get his head in front again. Mon Brav won this race last year and has been running respectably since without winning. That has seen his mark tumble to 2lb lower than when successful here in 2013 and he ran his best race for some time when finishing 4th of 17 at Doncaster in a Class 4 handicap last week.

Earlier in the card we have a decent looking Class 2 handicap over 7f. Penny Drops is interesting on handicap debut but I will give an each-way shout to Mick’s Yer Man who is looking more and more like a very smart horse. Last time out he won a Listed race at Ascot from 106 rated (and subsequent scorer) Musical Comedy. He won’t mind if the ground softens up and he might just defy top weight at a first try over 7f.

Selections:

Haydock 1.35: Glenard @5/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Coral)
Haydock 2.05 Out Do @9/1 each-way generally
Haydock 2.40 Kingsgate Native 7/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Bet 365)
Haydock 3.10 Perfect Blessings 8/1 each-way generally
Goodwood 2.55 Mick’s Yer Man 10/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places William Hill)
Goodwood 4.40 Mon Brav @4/1 & Slip Sliding Away @8/1 generally

Please follow and like us:
Facebook
Twitter
RSS
Follow by Email
Google+
https://dailypunt.com/tag/each-way-shout/">

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close