Tag Archives: early price

Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

Sometimes in life we need to remind ourselves of the fundamentals of whatever we are striving to be successful with in order to get our ship back on course.

With betting the biggest fundamental is value and the easiest way to make money from betting is to make your bets at odds that are better than starting price.

And beat starting price when it is adjusted down for a true market IE the prices make up a 100% chance when all possible outcomes are added up.

Starting price, especially these days with the betting exchange markets is an easy and reasonably reliable indicator of the true price/chance for any runner.

And the easiest and most efficient way to do that these days is to beat Betfair SP.

Betfair SP makes up to 100% and the prices are fair to both backers and layers.

If you can beat the Betfair SP consistently then you will make a profit.

There are tipping services that base their whole selection criteria around betting on horses that are showing signs that they will shorten in price from the morning bookie price to the starting price.

Although that is a winning strategy in itself, a better strategy is to study form and make your own selections, determine your own prices and bet where the early prices are bigger than your assessment.

That can be hard work though and you may want somebody to tell you what to bet to beat the market and if you want to be a winner without the work I would recommend Rory and David of the http://racingconsultants.co.uk

These guys are regularly beating Betfair starting price and consequently they make steady and consistent profits.

They also give a full analysis of every bet they give so you know exactly why they have made each bet.


Today's Selection

7.40 Windsor L´Orfeo – win bet – 2/1 Ladbrokes

Big Big Winning Factor

Have you noticed that a lot of tipsters have had a rough patch in the last week or so?

Maybe your own selection methods have taken a turn for the worst?

The reason is plain for all to see!

It is the changeable weather. With scorching sun one moment and thunder storms and flooding the next.

The fact is that when the going is softer than Good that the chances of many horses change and so we get surprises in the results.

Here's a simple example I pulled out of Horse Race Base.

I looked at horses running in UK Flat races on Turf.

And then I chose Stall 1 runners, just so I only looked at one horse per race and I looked at races where the going was Good to Soft or Soft.

I then looked at horses that had one win on the going compared to horses that hadn't won on the going.

You can see from the table that a Going Win bumps the strike rate up from 12% to 14% and takes the Return on Investment from -13.74 % to a small profit, 0.14%.

Horses with Going Win

Now obviously that system is not going to make us rich, but I bet that at early prices or even Betfair SP it would do a lot better than money in the bank.

What we need when the going gets, er, soft is a more sophisticated system than this.

What I'm using now is a system that can't be managed through a Database like HRB but which is finding huge winners and that's the Value Backing Weatherman system.

(Find out more about that here http://www.valuebacking.com/99-of-betting-systems-are-doomed/ )

Today's Selection

17:00:00 Lingfield Fort Berkeley – win bet – 5/1 Bet Victor

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