Tag Archives: ears

Sire Systems

Back in February this year I loaded some system rules into Horse Race Base around the sire Dom Alco (FR)*.

Basically the system rules were just to bet the 5 to 8 year old progeny of this sire when running over distances of 2 mile 6 furlongs to 3 mile 1 furlong.

A simple little system to capture the runners of a sire who is starting to have more runners and whose runners seem to be outperforming the market over recent years.

Here are the returns since I created the system…

Runs = 21
Wins = 5
Strike Rate = 23.8%
Profit 1 point level stakes at iSP = 18.25
ROI at iSP = 86.9%

There could probably be more rules added to this to increase the strike rate, but there isn't a huge amount of data to work with.

Anyway the reason I mention this today is because the system has a qualifier and I'm going to have a little each way bet on it…

Today's Selection

3.40 Exeter Sixty Something – eachway bet – 15/2 Bet 365

* Of course with the death of Dom Alco in 2010 this is only a short term angle 🙁

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Up In Class by Trainer Nicky Henderson

So today I am getting started on the job of researching individual trainers at individual courses when their novice hurdlers step up in class.

I'm going to start off with Nicky Henderson, simply because he has the most runners of the trainers that we have selected for this system.

It may be a case the Nicky's charges are over-bet because of his status, but we'll look at the data and see what we can find.

Because we are drilling down deeper and deeper the number of runners meeting a set of criteria will be less and less and it may be tricky to determine if a strike rate and profit is significant or not.

When looking at which courses are most profitable for Nicky Henderson, novice hurdlers that are upped in class, I have only looked at courses where there have been at least 10 qualifiers in the last 10 years.

Here's the table…

Nicky Henderson Novice Hurdlers Table

 

What jumps out is the huge profit (ROI) and strike rates at Huntingdon, Kempton and Ludlow.

Nicky Henderson is based in Upper Lambourn which is on the M4 and relatively convenient for the top class venues of Newbury, Cheltenham, Ascot, Kempton and Sandown.

Of the courses listed above Huntingdon is the furthest at around 100 miles from base.

I'm not sure if we should read something into the class of the tracks, I suppose I'm surprised that Towcester isnt in the profit list, but the stats don't lie. This is definitely how it panned out in the past, let's hope it can steer us towards some winners in the future.

Today's Selection

5.10 Pontefract Dark Ruler – win bet – 5/1 Bet Victor

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Big Profit from Multiples

Do you bet in multiples?

Doubles, trebles or acca's (accumulators)?

I have always been of the opinion that these types of bets are just for the bookies benefit and have always avoided them, even though there is a promise of huge profits if they come off.

I do remember a few years back reading an article about how if you are making value bets, if you combine them into doubles or trebles that you magnify the advantage that you have because the value multiplies. But that didnt change my methods.

The results from yesterday's Racing Consultants tips have caused me to think again.

Yesterday they gave three selections to be combined into a half point each way Trixie.

A Trixie is 3 doubles (eachway doubles in this case) and a treble, so four bets.

The guys managed to land 2 of the bets, the advised prices were 6/1 and 9/1 (there was a 10p rule 4 on the 6/1)

A £5 eachway Trixie where only two of the horses won paid £376, which is a £336 profit!

That's a big return from getting just two bets home.

But the thing that really surprised me is that if they had got all three home the return would have been £5,620 for a £40 outlay.

(The non runner was 11/1)

I need to re-think my betting and staking strategy.

Do you bet in multiples? Tell me in the comments, if you've had any big wins tell me that also.

Find out more about the Racing Consultants here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.00 Newcastle – Lady Bingo – win bet – 4/1 Bet 365

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