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Hutching Calculator – Hutching Profits

Following from yesterdays introduction to Dutching, today I want to tell you about Hutching and the Oddschecker Hutching calculator.

The Hutching calculator can be used like the Dutching calculator but instead of taking an equal profit whichever of your selections win. You can instead bias your bet towards a particular outcome.

So you could take all your profit from what you consider to be the most likely outcome and break even on other selected outcomes.

So you are hedging your bet, you have a bet, you expect it to win, but you want to cover some other outcomes so you hedge, hence the hutching calculator.

As an example Chelsea are 1.19 to beat West Ham tonight, so they are expected to win. If we think that West Ham are unlikely to score and Chelsea will win we could frame a bet using the hutching calculator.

If we decide to bet the correct scores of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 & 4-0 which are priced up at 9.6, 7.2, 8.2, 11.5 respectively.

By adjusting our stakes we can pretty much break even on 1-0, 3-0 & 4-0 and take a profit of £38.60 on 2-0, for a total stake of £10.

If we've judged things correctly then that return compares favourably with the £1.90 profit from a straight win bet.

The image below shows the calculator and the stakes required.

The trouble with this hutching calculator is that you have to manually play around with the stakes to get your desired result.

And if all your bets were in the same market, then it's probably just as easy to do this directly into Betfair. But in this case our bets are spread across 2 markets.

Nevertheless this is a a useful way to frame bets to get better value and to bias bets towards what you consider to be the most likely outcomes.

Don't follow the crowd and just bet what is offered to you, hutch your way to profit.

Hutching Calculator Chelsea West Ham

Longest Losing Run

Smart SiggerI've just been catching up with my reading, with this months Smart Sigger magazine.

This months issue includes Ebor Handicap Trends, a piece on the wisdom of crowds that looks at why starting prices reflect the true chance of a horse, a continuation of their implementation of a Bayes Theorem method. A system for betting debutantes in handicaps and an interesting piece about why you shouldnt always use past results as an indication of future performance.

But the piece I want to talk about today is a discussion of whether you are a gambler or an investor, which provided a reminder of the formula that you can use to calculate your longest expected losing run.

I think we have published this formula before but it's always worthwhile to revisit important fundamentals.

The gist of the article was that if you dont stake your bets consistently with your longest expected losing run then you are a gambler not an investor.

The formula for working out the longest expected losing run for a given strike rate is

LOG(Number of selections)/-LOG(1-Strike Rate)

If, like me you no longer have your log tables to hand, then you will need to use Excel or something similar to make the calculation.

By way of an example lets assume that we expect to make 400 bets this season and that the methods we use have a strike rate of 20%.

The 20% has to be converted to a decimal number, so we divide by 100 to give 0.20.

So the calculation is

LOG(400)/-LOG(1-0.20) = 26.85

So with a 20% strike rate over 400 bets we can expect a losing run of between 26 and 27.

Eddie Lloyd who wrote the piece goes on to state that if you intend to be an investor and not a gambler you had better have a bank and a stake size that can cope with the losing runs you can expect.

You can get your first issue of Smart Sigger for free – Click Here

Today's Selection

Lingfield 6.35 O Gorman – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet Victor

 

Back or Lay

A question I'm often asked is should I be a backer or a layer?

The fact is it doesn't make much difference because in any bet you are actually backing one outcome and laying the other.

IE If you lay a horse you are actually betting all the others and just need one of them to win.

I don't want to go to far off track here but in the old days before betting exchanges. People would bet against a bad favourite by dutching the other contenders. Probably not the whole field but those that held a chance.

So I say backing and laying are just the same the only difference being the way we think about the profitability of our selections.

You see the big danger with laying is that a lot of punters think there method is more profitable than it is.

As an example let's say we lay 10 selections at 8.0 and one of them wins their race.

We have won 9 points (I'll ignore commission for this example) and we have paid out 7 points.

So we make 2 points profit on 10 bets. Now a lot of people new too laying think they have made a 20% return on investment (ROI) with these bets.

Thinking they have layed out 10 points and made a profit of 2 = 20%.

But in fact they need to look at how much they have risked, which is 10 time 7 points (the liability on each bet).

So the ROI calculation is actually 2 points profit for 70 risked which is actually 2.8% ROI.

There are other considerations when deciding whether to be a backer or a layer. Like strike rates and losing and winning runs and how you cope with them.

But the point I want to make today is that it's easy to think that a laying method is more profitable and a better use of your bank than a backing method.

But in reality it often isn't. As long as you understand the true ROI of your bets then you can make an informed decision.

Today's Selections Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club

Speed Steed 1pt win (4.15 Plumpton) 11`2 with Stan James

Interesting that Richard Johnson takes the ride for the first time for a yard that when this happens can be a good sign.

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