Tag Archives: excellent record

Nick Hardman Free Racing Tips

It’s Friday and here’s Nick Hardman from the Betting School Insiders Club.
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We had another terrific Friday last week courtesy of Nicky Henderson’s hurdlers and he rattled up a hat-trick across the cards with winners at 6/1, 4/1 and 9/4. With Chepstow abandoned and nothing making any appeal at Musselburgh, we turn out attention back to the AW and some qualifiers from the systems we are road testing over at the Betting School Insiders Club which are ticking over nicely.

There are no qualifiers from Lingfield but we have a few from the evening card at Wolverhampton below:

5.15pm Solar Deity & Linton
5.45pm Harwoods Star
6.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45 Go Packing Go & Sciustree

Solar Deity looks to have a good chance to get off the mark in 2015 after a string of placed efforts. He is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival on official ratings but is well-in under these weights. He rates a solid bet and I expect him to shorten so take the best morning price with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker.

Stablemate Linton needs to recapture the form that saw him win plenty of races in Australia and compete in a pair of Listed races on the flat last year. I would be as surprised as anyone if Linton were to take this from his stablemate but he is one that may tempt the each-way backers at a price.

Harwoods Star got turned over at 4/9 on his last start but has a chance of making amends here back up in trip and with7lb claimer Aaron Jones back on board. The yard are in excellent form too so he is worth another chance.

The same trainer and jockey team up on Little Lord Nelson in the next and he also has decent chance on handicap debut. The final race will most likely see Charlie Appleby’s New Approach colt Symbolic Star go off a warm order. If he takes a chunk out of the market that could see our two qualifiers go off at an each-way price.

Sciustree is related to plenty of winners and was 6th of 12 on debut and should improve for that experience. Go Packing Go is also well related and makes her debut here.

Saturday’s feature race is the Clarence House Chase which sees the return of the mighty Sprinter Sacre. I for one will be hoping he doesn’t just win this, but wins in the manner of a horse that totally dismisses his rivals. Racing needs superstars and we want this one back. With that in mind it is a watching race and not a betting race for me.

For a selection on Saturday I have run the rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock from a trends perspective.

We have a shortlist of 4 qualifiers in Vintage Star, Benbens, Amigo and Toby Lerone. Benbens had Amigo some 20 lengths behind in the Welsh National and I cannot see any reason why Amigo should turn the tables here.

Toby Lerone put in a career best last time when finishing second to Broadway Buffalo in the Tommy Whittle Chase at this venue. He is up 6lbs for that and could still be improving. That was on heavy ground too, which he will likely get again on Saturday.

Vintage Star is 4lbs lower than when runner-up in this race last year. He is also back down to his last winning mark that saw him win a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on heavy ground over 3m 1f.

He has not performed that well in 3 starts this season but he has yet to see really testing ground which he may well get on Saturday. Trainer Suzy Smith has an excellent record in the race having trained 2 winners, a runner-up and two third placed finishers since 2000.

It’s a leap of faith but I am willing to make him one of my selections from the shortlist in the hope this is a true test of stamina.

I am torn between Benbens and Toby Lerone for my second selection but I will side with Benbens as the father & son Twiston-Davies combination has been in fine form recently. In addition he was travelling as well as anything in the Welsh National until running out of gas about three flights from home. Back down in trip I think he can go well.

Saturday Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Star e/w
Benbens e/w

The one runner who does interest me on Saturday’s cards is super-tough mare Carole’s Spirit in the Mare’s Hurdle race at Ascot.

A winner of 4 of her 5 starts her only defeat came at the hands of Highland Retreat who has gone on to be an exciting novice chaser for Harry Fry.

Against her own sex and proven over track, trip and ground I expect her to go very close.

Saturday Ascot 1.50pm
Carole’s Spirit

Good Luck
Nick Hardman
Betting School Insiders Club

Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://bettinginsiders.com )is back with us for a look at the racing action today and Saturday.

Racing Tips

Donald McCain Jr provided us with a couple of winners up at Musselburgh a fortnight ago and this Friday we hope for more of the same from a trainer with an excellent record at Ffos Las.

Rebecca Curtis has sent out 20 winners from 81 runners at the South Wales track in the last 2 years at a strike rate of 25% and a level stakes profit of £12.00.

She has decent prospects of adding to that tally today, especially with Davy Russell booked for four of the five rides

Rebecca Curtis runners at Ffos Las, Friday November 21st:

12.40 Vintage Vinnie
1.10 Binge Drinker
2.15 Tara Road & Champagne Rian
4.00 Veripek

Elsewhere on Friday’s cards, Virak looks a novice chaser of huge potential and he looks good value to follow up his seasonal reappearance win when easily beating subsequent winner Deputy Dan.

Haydock 2.30pm Virak @11/8

Saturday sees top class racing from Haydock and Ascot with the highlight being the Betfair Chase. The race itself is not a great betting race with Cue Card, Silviniaco Conti and Dynaste all around 10/3. Double Ross looks hugely overpriced at 25/1 considering he was beaten 4 lengths by Menorah and a short head by Taquin Du Seuil in the Charlie Hall Chase.

That day he had Medermit, Silviniaco Conti and the Giant Bolster in behind and they all re-oppose on Saturday. Clearly he lacks the class of the market leaders but if a couple of them fail to fire then I can see him sneaking a place. He is also fairly unexposed as a chaser over staying distances with his run in the Charlie Hall Chase being his first chase run beyond 2m 5 ½f. The Betfair place market would be the way to go as they will still pay 3 places if one or more of the 8 are withdrawn on the day of the race.

The one race on Saturday that does appeal is the Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock and the horse I want on my side is Trustan Times. He won this 2 years ago and was not disgraced in finishing 8th last year. His last run over hurdles saw him finish 4th in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, beaten just ¾ length. He followed that up with 3rd in the Scottish National so we know he stays every yard of the 3m trip and looks a cracking each-way bet.

Saturday bets from Haydock:

Betfair Chase – Double Ross to place (Betfair, 3 places, currently 5.5 but look to get around 6.0 to 7.0) or if you are feeling brave back Double Ross @25/1 e/w with the bookmakers.

Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle – Trustan Times @20/1 each-way

Haydock Tips

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Nick shares Haydock tips and pointers for this evening and tomorrow afternoon.

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There is some excellent racing at Haydock this weekend as the course holds its three day meeting with the highlight being the Lancashire Oaks on Saturday. Before I get to that race, here are a few pointers for a trainer with an excellent record at the track.

Tom Dascombe

Tom Dascombe has had 41 winners from 181 runners at the course since 2010 at a strike rate of 22.65% and a level stakes profit of £63.62. Over 1 in 3 of his runners reach the frame with 67 placed horses from those 181 runners at a place strike rate of 37.02%.

21 of his winners have come in non-handicap races (from 81 runners) for a level stakes profit of £54.21 at a strike rate of 24%. Of greater significance is the fact he has had 4 runners in non-handicaps at the course this season and they have finished 4111.

His entries at Haydock over the weekend in non-handicap races are:

Stec (Friday 8.15pm) 7f maiden
The Character (Friday 8.45pm) 1m maiden
Bear Behind (Saturday 2.20pm) 6f conditions race
Wall Of Sound (Saturday 2.55pm) Group 2 1m 4f

His handicappers are 20-93 (SR 21.51%, £9.41 level stakes profit) since 2010 at the course. In the last 2 years those figures read 17-69 (SR 24.64%, £17.91 level stakes profit). In 2014 he has saddled 4 winners from 14 runners in handicap races at Haydock.

However, if we remove those runners who went off bigger than 16/1 he has a 50% strike rate (4 winners from 8 runners) and a level stakes profit of £21.50. His handicap entries over the weekend are:

Captain Whoosh (Friday 6.45pm) 5f hcap
Celestial Vision (Friday 7.15pm) 2yo hcap (nursery)
Dreams Of Reality (Saturday 1.45pm) 5f hcap
Capo Rosso (Saturday 4.40pm) 7f hcap

Any of Dascombe’s horses ridden by Richard Kingscote are worth a second look. They form a great partnership and have teamed up for 31 winners already this season. This partnership has produced figures of 211311 in their last six rides. At Haydock in 2014 they are 4-10 for a level stakes profit of 16.88pts.

Lancashire Oaks

It is no secret that John Gosden is having a terrific season and his fillies in particular have been in cracking form.

When competing against their own sex, Gosden’s fillies are 13-82 to a level stakes profit of £9.90.

A win strike rate of 15.85% does not stand out as being exceptional, but on closer order you will find that 45 of those 82 runners finished in the places at a huge strike rate of 54.88%.

If we dig a little deeper we find that all 13 winners competed in non-handicap races (from 67 runners). Again, a massive 41 of those 67 fillies filled the places at a place strike rate of 61.19%.

With the Lancashire Oaks in mind, we can look specifically at the race distance 1m 4f.

This season he has sent out 9 fillies over 1m 4f (non-handicaps) and they have finished 331112130.

That’s 4 winners and 8 placed horses from 9 runners.

He runs Pomology and Sultanina in this year’s renewal and both can be given solid chances.

Pomology seeks to defy an absence of 328 days but cannot be discounted, especially as her trainer has won this race 5 times since 1997 and has won 3 of the last 11 renewals.

John Gosden also trained Place Rouge to win this on her debut in 2003, so the lengthy absence of Pomology is considered a slight concern rather than a big negative.

Sultanina and Freedom’s Light finished 1-2 in the Pinnacle Stakes over C&D in May with Silk Sari, Special Meaning and Astonishing in behind.

Freedom’s Light won a Listed race over 12f next time out to frank that form.

Sultanina was unraced as a 3yo but is 2-2 as a 4yo and is open to bags of improvement having only her third run. This is a better race than the two she has won but she is largely unexposed.

There have been seven 3yo and seven 4yo winners since 1997 and the 3yo horses get a hefty allowance of 13lb. However, only one 3yo has managed to win in the last 7 renewals.

The sole 3 year old lining up here is Richard Hannon’s Lustrous. She loved the step up to 1m 4f when finishing a staying-on second to Bracelet in the Group 2 Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot.

As long as that has not taken too much out of her she should have a great chance here in receipt of 13lbs.

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Dr Nick Hardman is a regular contributor of winning systems analysis and tips at the Betting School Insiders Club. Find out more about the Betting School Insiders Club here

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

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TV Racing Selection

Sandown 2.10 Ceasar Milan – Eachway bet – 10/1 Bet Victor

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