Tag Archives: excuses

Football and Racing Tips

I had a bet last night for today's Cheltenham meeting that demonstrates how far you can beat the market by following tipsters who do their own race assessments rather than waiting for markets to form and letting those markets influence their decisions.

At 5pm yesterday the Racing consultants sent their members a note telling them to get on a horse that was available at 8/1 and that on their assessment should be much shorter.

I had my little tenner on with Bet 365 and now the horse is 5/1 with Bet 365 and best priced 11/2.

This horse might lose, but to me it will be remembered as a good bet whether it wins or loses because it is my strong opinion that you should judge your bets by how much you beat starting price not by whether they win or lose.

This might sound crazy to some readers. But others will know that if you keep beating starting price by big margins that the profits will take care of themselves.

I'm going to give you the bet and the full assessment in a minute, but first I'd like to recommend that whether it wins or loses that if you are serious about winning that you join the Racing Consultants service.

These guys send out bets like this one on a regular basis and they beat the market.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

By the way they sent another one at 5.20, but I'm not allowed to give that one, but if you join them you can get immediate access.

Here's the race assessment and bet…

2.25 FREEBETS.COM TROPHY CHASE (2M5F)

“Little Jon impressed me enough as a hurdler last year despite his build and background suggesting he’d be much better over fences, and he proved the point at the first time of asking at Newton Abbot in October, giving weight and a beating to the Paul Nicholls-trained Solar Impulse.

That preceded a trio of runs in higher company here, and the bottom line is that the long-striding son of Pasternak hasn’t beaten another rival.

That said, he actually ran a cracker when a close third over 2m in November, and has crashed out when leading on his next two starts.

Despite those aberrations, he appeals as a pretty sound jumper, if inclined to take the occasional fence (or indeed wing) on.

The upside of his failures is that he’s not revealed the full extent of his ability, and therefore the handicapper hasn’t been as severe as he might have been, accepting that an opening mark of 140 is no gimme.

Main opposition comes primarily in the shape of Easter Day for Paul Nicholls, and he can’t be ruled out of calculations, for all his odds will be skinny enough.

More interesting at the forecast prices is Annacotty, who was second in the novice handicap on this card last year. He was another who couldn’t cope with the demands of the Hennessy first time out, but he’s reportedly been perked up by a spell hunting, and also has cheekpieces fitted, so should have no excuses.

He was a Grade 1 winner last year, and that fact shouldn’t be overlooked.

2.25 Chel – 2pts win Little Jon @ 8/1 (Bet365)”

As mentioned above current best price is 11/2 with Skybet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power

Football Perm

We had a win last week with The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Free Trial Here)
and this week I've gone with their home wins perm…

Top Rated ‘Best 6 Homes'
(Perm any 5 from 6 plus all 6 = 7 bets)
TOTTENHAM
NORWICH
WATFORD
WOLVES
MK DONS
BARNET
The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 6 Homes' are available with…

Coral

5/1 Selection Today

I hope you had a little bet on Hernando Torres yesterday and got the 11/2 that was available when I mailed you.

Even better than that I hope you joined Gary for the full Trixie!

The other two selections both placed and overall 19.78 points were made by members to advised prices, with SP producing over 10 points profit on the day.

There's still time to join Gary at http://bookiesenemyno1.com

Today I've snaffled you a selection from another top tipping service to see if I can repeat the feat.

The Racing Consultants is the joint name of the team that is David Massey and Rory Delargy.

These guys are proper old school form students and know the form book inside and out.

Since they started sharing their tips back in June last year they haven't had a losing month.

They have three bets for today's racing and the one I've taken is a 5/1 shot in a 6 runner race…

Sedgefield 2.30 – 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (class 3)

The last time James Ewart’s UN GUET APENS saw Sedgefield was in a handicap chase just over a year ago. On that occasion he jumped well and never gave his supporters  a moment’s worry, coming right away from three out.

He improved on that when beating the 130 rated Supreme Asset at Carlisle in April, which saw his rating go to 133 over fences. There have been excuses for two of his three runs since then, as they were over a trip that looks too far (and the cheekpieces he seems to need were missing on one occasion too), but if judging him on the run in between, when getting beaten a short head by Indian Voyage back at Carlisle off 132, it’s not difficult to see he’s well handicapped today back over hurdles on a mark of 128.

With trip, ground and track all ideal, and the cheekpieces returning,  there seems little reason why he shouldn’t run his race.

2.30 Sedgefield – 1pt win Un Guet Apens (5-1 Hills, Bet365, Corals)

For immediate access to the other two selections today join the Racing Consultants here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

 

 

Trainer Trends Selections

There's a lot of talk at the moment about using Trainer Trends to find selections and we have been recommending the method here since we launched 16 months ago.

Mark Foley is our ‘go to guy' for Trainer Trends and he is in great form with another winner yesterday at 9/2.

This brings his profit since the start of this years flat season to 46.37 points profit, that's in just 20 days.

Mark has two selections today and an additional one that might qualify if the price shortens. as an example of what members of Mark's Trainer Trends service receive each day he has allowed me to publish the two main selections for you, here.

As we saw the other day, previous good course form over Goodwood’s twists and turns is a big bonus, some horses just don’t act on the track and Pearl Castle has already won over a mile at glorious Goodwood. Pearl Castle’s sole win in 4 outings came on ground similar to today, there have been valid excuses for the two runs since; it would come as no surprise to see a much improved performance today.

The Dascombe stable won last year’s renewal of the 3.50 race and had runners make the frame in the 2010 and 2011 renewals. This is their local track and Fine n Dandy ran well on debut and is well drawn in Stall 3.

Personally, I will be backing Pearl Castle and Fine n Dandy to win today.

————————————————————————————————–

Pearl Castle 2.30 Goodwood (5/1 with Bet365/Powers): Off the mark at second attempt when making all in 1m maiden here in August before well held in a heavy-ground Ayr nursery; again down the field on seasonal debut at Windsor on reappearance (led) and though it´s still very early days for him and he has been dropped 2lb since, others appeal more for win purposes.

Andrew Balding:
Runners in 3yo plus races priced 9/1 or shorter:
Runners at Bath, Chepstow, Newmarket and Windsor had a good record.
The runners aged 5 or younger performed well.
Runners ridden by William Buick, Jimmy Fortune and David Probert had a good record.
———————————————————————————————————–

Fine n Dandy 3.50 Chester (9/4 widely available): Could not get to grips with more-experienced Limegrove in four-runner Lingfield 5f AW maiden on debut a fortnight ago; should improve with that experience under his belt, has good draw and trainer won this last year.

Tom Dascombe
2 yo runners priced less than 9/1:
The runners priced 4/1 or shorter performed well.
The Fillies had an impressive record.
Runners having their 2nd run did well.
Runners ridden by Richard Kingscote had a good record.

You can join Mark's Trainer Trends service for just 50 pence per day if you select the Annual option, at that price it is a bargain. http://trainertrends.co.uk/

A Value Bet

I don't know what percentage of the articles on this site are about value betting, but I'm guessing it's quite high. I make no excuses for that because the fact is value is everything if you want to win.

Today I've been prompted to write about value betting by a bet I had last week.

This was a typical bet from Carl Nicholson's Value Backing service. Cool Friend was the only selection from the Value Backing main service and was advised as an each way bet at 50/1.

In the early days of following Carl I would have shied away from having my full stake on a 50/1 shot, but I've learned that they can win and that if any one can pick them at these prices then Carl is that man. (Carl had a 50/1 winner at the end of the last flat season)

So the first thing I did was to get my bet on and secure my price. Step two in my thought process was how the heck did he pick this and why. So I took a close look at Cool Friend.

What I found was that Cool Friend had won at Aintree, which was where it was running today, and had won over a 9lb higher mark and today it was also getting a 7lb mares allowance.

So essentially this horse was well in and a contender but for some reason it was priced at 50/1.

Now that is a value bet.

And that is today's message, don't look for nailed on winners, look for horses that can win given the breaks but that are priced so big, at such a value price, that should it win that it will pay for a lot of losers.

I don't know what true odds Carl assessed this mare to be but I would guess around 16/1, if you can get 50/1 on a 16/1 chance then you should be betting these as often as you can.

Did it win?

Amazingly Cool Friend started at 33/1 and was beaten by a neck into second on the line by a 100/1 shot. It was still a great return but could've been a big big win.

It's been a good week for Value Backing followers with an 18/1 winner yesterday and a 20/1 winner last Monday.

Today's Selection

Kelso 3.30 Jack the Gent – eachway bet – 9/2 Bet 365

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