factor Archives • Daily Punt

Tongue Tie Research

Posted on February 9, 2015 by Dave French • 1 Comment

You'll remember that last week I mentioned the Geegeez article that talked about the use of tongue ties and how a horse needs a few runs with a tongue tie before they will let them self go.

The theory being that the horse still thinks that it's tongue will get in the way and is worried it won't be able to breathe and so doesnt give all.

But after a few runs with a tongue tie it starts to realise that it doenst have tongue problems anymore.

So I've been doing some research.

First off some facts. All horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time in 2013 & 2014 produces the following big losses.

Runs = 3959
Wins = 319
Strike Rate = 8.06%
Loss at iSP = -1335.24
ROI = – 33.73%

So it seems that wearing a tongue tie for the first time is a negative factor and the losing ROI is such that maybe it has the makings of a lay system.

Then it occurred to me that the reason that the horse doesnt perform well first time out with the tie is because it is still worried about a previous experience with breathing and doesn't realise it will be ok with the tie.

But surely there are some trainers that use the tie at home and get the horse used to it and trusting it before they ever go racing with the tie on and that maybe there are trainers that win first time-out with a tongue tie.

So I had a search for trainers who are profitable with first time tongue tie wearers.

And I found some.

For example Rebecca Curtis had 22 starts over the two year period that ran with a tongue tie for the first time.

Seven of those won for a 32% strike rate and they made an industry SP profit of 5.86 which is a 27% ROI.

Charlie Longsdon had 32 starts and 8 wins and an industry SP profit of 20.3. Which is a strike rate of 25% and an ROI of 63%.

I've selected the best performers from 2013/14 and checked their 2015 performance and a good profit has been made so I'm going to run this as a system live for a while and see if we have something worth following long term.

Today's Selection

2.30 Wolverhampton Kalimantan – win bet – 11/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

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The Shortlist Report

Posted on December 9, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

I'm still playing around with all the features and reports over at Geegeez.

And what I've found out is that if you just register with Geegeez for free that you get access to a different feature each day, so you can try out the various features at no cost.

On a Tuesday it's the shortlist.

The Shortlist is a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report that day.

Currently, it covers win stats only, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

Here's an example:

Click to Enlarge

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate)
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate)
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate)
‘-‘ means there is no available data for that factor.

Here's how you can get today's shortlist for free.

Go to www.geegeez.co.uk

On the right of the page is a log on box, and just under that is a register link, click that, and register.

Once you're registered you'll be redirected to your profile page and you'll be logged in.

Next click Race Cards from the top menu.

You'll then have access to all of today's race cards, which frankly are easier and faster to use than the Racing Post ones and you'll also see the Report Selector box just above the race cards.

Pick The Shortlist from the report selector and you can see what horses made the shortlist today and why they made it. Simples!

Today's Selection

Fontwell 2.10 Theatrical Star – win bet – 15/8 Paddy Power

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Tony McCoy OBE

Posted on November 13, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Following on from Monday's article today I'm going to look at some stats from Champion Jockey Tony McCoy.

By the way yesterdays eachway bet that placed second was from the system we created on Monday.

Ok, so backing all of Tony's mounts would as you'd expect returns a loss, but not as a big a loss as I expected at 15% of stakes lost.

If we break that down by race type we see that Hurdles perform best with an excellent 27% strike rate from all hurdle start and a loss of just 11%.

Tony McCoy by Race Type Table

At this stage of my research I was pondering where to go next and looking down the list of factors and say ‘Going'.

My first thought was that, that is a factor that depends more on the particular horse than the jockey, but then I pictured AP pumping away, driving a tired horse home and thought I bet he does better in Heavy going than other jocks. And he does.

Over the last two years backing all of McCoys Hurdle rides on Heavy going has produced a 25% ROI and a 31% strike rate.

However over the long term this strategy has been pretty much break even, so maybe something to keep in mind rather than to bet blindly.

For today I'm going to wrap up with a look at how he performs for different trainers.

My thoughts are that as I've said for previous jockeys that I would expect them to be a losing proposition for their own stable rides, just because they have to ride everything and that seems to be the case with Jonjo O Neill rides showing a loss.

The table below shows every Hurdle ride since January 1st 2013 and I've sorted it by ROI to help spot the trainers who make a profit when they book the real McCoy.

Today's Selection

2:00 Ludlow Sin Bin – win bet – 4/1 Bet Victor

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Nothing Lasts Forever

Posted on October 7, 2014 by Dave French • 1 Comment

If you are a system bettor you have to be constantly monitoring your system or systems to see if they are still profitable.

Today I'm revisiting a topic from last October that discusses the lifetime of a betting system and how to tell if your system is in decline.

I guess we all have experience of systems that worked well and then went down hill.

This might happen because somebody sells a system based on the factor that you are exploiting or just because the particular angle becomes better known and understood by punters and bookmakers.

The betting world is constantly moving and angles that were once indicators of value are eventually accounted for in bookies prices and then are no longer value indicators.

This is why services like the Betting Insiders Club are constantly developing new approaches every month, so they can stay one step ahead of the markets.

Although there are many opinions the question of what is the lifetime of a betting system is unanswerable but what we can do is keep an eye on key indicators that will alert us to an imminent decline.

The key thing to watch is the strike rate compared to the return on investment.

If you have a system or angle that has been making profit for you over time and the strike rate is remaining consistent then you can be confident that the factor that the system relies upon is still relevant.

If the return on investment is going down while the strike rate remains the same then it's time to assess the average price of the selections.

If the prices are going down and the ROI is going down then it follows that the selections are now being over-bet and the bookmakers and betting public have caught on to your angle and it's time for a new approach.

It pays to keep records not only of your profit and loss but also of the strike rate and ROI of any system or method you are using.

Nothing lasts forever 🙁

Today's Selection

6.05 Kempton John Caesar – win bet 6/4 Paddy Power

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Tag Archives: factor

Tongue Tie Research

The Shortlist Report

Tony McCoy OBE

Nothing Lasts Forever