Tag Archives: factor

Greyhound Baulking

So last time we looked at which dog had the fastest sectional times and was likely to lead.

But times don't tell the full story. There are other factors that effect the run up to the first bend and they can all be grouped together into one question.

That is will the dogs, or at least the one we are interested in, get a clear run to the bend and that's what we'll look at today.

Greyhounds run in a number of distinct styles and track positions.

There are those that want to run close to the rail and those (usually bigger dogs) that prefer to run out wide where the bends are easier to negotiate. Generally speaking when a dog leaves the trap he will aim to get in the position that he prefers.

This will be clearer if I use an extreme example.

If we have a dog that is too big to negotiate the bends near to the rail and needs to run wide around the bends then somewhere between the traps and the first bend he will want to get into the position that is most comfortable.

If that particular dog was starting in trap one then somewhere along the way he will cut in front of, or behind the dogs in traps two to six.

He will most likely bump into or impede some of these other dogs on his way to the bend.

This means that the sectional time that we expect from any other dog that is impeded will not be what we expect it to be. So for example in our screen shot from the last message our trap five may not have had an advantage if he was impeded by others along the way.

To assess the likelihood of any dog getting to the line as quickly as we expect we need to look at its previous races and those of the dogs around it to predict any problems.

Predicting likely trouble from the traps is more of an art than a science but there are clues a plenty in the race card.

First off you want to look for comments in the previous races of the runners. If a runner is slow or very slow away consistently then this is an advantage for the adjacent runners as they will have clear space around them.

Also look for comments regarding a dogs position at the start. You might find an indication that a dog heads for the rails at the start or heads wide at the start EG RlsStt would indicate that the dog in question headed for the inside rail at the start.

When you see comments like this you have to put them into the context of todays race. For example if a dog earns the comment RlsStt but is in trap one today then the comment is not relevant. However if he is in trap two then it may have negative consequences for trap one but be a positive sign for trap three.

Also look at what trap each dog has been running from if a dog is used to trap one but is today in trap three then it may be that he will head to his regular position near the rails.

Use all of the relevant comments and information to build a picture in your mind of how the run to the bend will pan out.

Tongue Tie Research

You'll remember that last week I mentioned the Geegeez article that talked about the use of tongue ties and how a horse needs a few runs with a tongue tie before they will let them self go.

The theory being that the horse still thinks that it's tongue will get in the way and is worried it won't be able to breathe and so doesnt give all.

But after a few runs with a tongue tie it starts to realise that it doenst have tongue problems anymore.

So I've been doing some research.

First off some facts. All horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time in 2013 & 2014 produces the following big losses.

Runs = 3959
Wins = 319
Strike Rate = 8.06%
Loss at iSP = -1335.24
ROI = – 33.73%

So it seems that wearing a tongue tie for the first time is a negative factor and the losing ROI is such that maybe it has the makings of a lay system.

Then it occurred to me that the reason that the horse doesnt perform well first time out with the tie is because it is still worried about a previous experience with breathing and doesn't realise it will be ok with the tie.

But surely there are some trainers that use the tie at home and get the horse used to it and trusting it before they ever go racing with the tie on and that maybe there are trainers that win first time-out with a tongue tie.

So I had a search for trainers who are profitable with first time tongue tie wearers.

And I found some.

For example Rebecca Curtis had 22 starts over the two year period that ran with a tongue tie for the first time.

Seven of those won for a 32% strike rate and they made an industry SP profit of 5.86 which is a 27% ROI.

Charlie Longsdon had 32 starts and 8 wins and an industry SP profit of 20.3. Which is a strike rate of 25% and an ROI of 63%.

I've selected the best performers from 2013/14 and checked their 2015 performance and a good profit has been made so I'm going to run this as a system live for a while and see if we have something worth following long term.

Today's Selection

2.30 Wolverhampton Kalimantan – win bet – 11/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

The Shortlist Report

I'm still playing around with all the features and reports over at Geegeez.

And what I've found out is that if you just register with Geegeez for free that you get access to a different feature each day, so you can try out the various features at no cost.

On a Tuesday it's the shortlist.

The Shortlist is a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report that day.

Currently, it covers win stats only, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

Here's an example:

GeeGeez Shortlist

Click to Enlarge

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate)
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate)
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate)
‘-‘ means there is no available data for that factor.

Here's how you can get today's shortlist for free.

Go to www.geegeez.co.uk

On the right of the page is a log on box, and just under that is a register link, click that, and register.

Once you're registered you'll be redirected to your profile page and you'll be logged in.

Next click Race Cards from the top menu.

You'll then have access to all of today's race cards, which frankly are easier and faster to use than the Racing Post ones and you'll also see the Report Selector box just above the race cards.

Pick The Shortlist from the report selector and you can see what horses made the shortlist today and why they made it. Simples!

Today's Selection

Fontwell 2.10 Theatrical Star – win bet – 15/8 Paddy Power

 

 

Tony McCoy OBE

Following on from Monday's article today I'm going to look at some stats from Champion Jockey Tony McCoy.

By the way yesterdays eachway bet that placed second was from the system we created on Monday.

Ok, so backing all of Tony's mounts would as you'd expect returns a loss, but not as a big a loss as I expected at 15% of stakes lost.

If we break that down by race type we see that Hurdles perform best with an excellent 27% strike rate from all hurdle start and a loss of just 11%.

Tony McCoy by Race Type Table

At this stage of my research I was pondering where to go next and looking down the list of factors and say ‘Going'.

My first thought was that, that is a factor that depends more on the particular horse than the jockey, but then I pictured AP pumping away, driving a tired horse home and thought I bet he does better in Heavy going than other jocks. And he does.

Over the last two years backing all of McCoys Hurdle rides on Heavy going has produced a 25% ROI and a 31% strike rate.

However over the long term this strategy has been pretty much break even, so maybe something to keep in mind rather than to bet blindly.

For today I'm going to wrap up with a look at how he performs for different trainers.

My thoughts are that as I've said for previous jockeys that I would expect them to be a losing proposition for their own stable rides, just because they have to ride everything and that seems to be the case with Jonjo O Neill rides showing a loss.

The table below shows every Hurdle ride since January 1st 2013 and I've sorted it by ROI to help spot the trainers who make a profit when they book the real McCoy.

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

 

Today's Selection

2:00 Ludlow Sin Bin – win bet – 4/1 Bet Victor

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