Tag Archives: fair price

Greyhound Racing Videos

Before I get into the specifics of finding winning dogs by reading the form I want to just give a bit more background info and talk about a method I used to use when I was full time betting the greyhounds…

Finding the winning greyhound in a graded race is about a lot more than the times it has achieved in the past.

Graded racing is the greyhound equivalent of a handicap race except that greyhounds are not allocated any sort of handicap to slow them down.

Instead they selected to be as closely matched as possible.

The Racing Managers job is to put together races that are as closely matched as possible and to, if you like, create a puzzle for the punters.

On course bookmaking at greyhound tracks is notoriously hard, mainly because when money talks in a small market there are not the opportunities to balance out a book. This is the reason that on course overrounds are huge at greyhound tracks and the reason that the Racing Manager does his best to make the races as decipherable as possible.

Don’t let any of this put you off, though, because winners can be found if you are selective and if the meeting is covered by Betfair then fair prices can be obtained also.

As with any activity knowledge equals power or in this case the more you know the more profitable you can be. The ultimate level of knowledge is to have watched every race ever run by every dog in the race to hand and to know how each has been performing at home. (Many trainers these days have some sort of track at their own kennels).

It is unlikely that you can get inside info on every dog in a race but you can often get to see every race a dog has run. For some years now tracks have supplied videos of all races run to those prepared to pay for the privilege. And the backer who focuses on one particular track can, given time, watch every run of a particular animal. However this is an expensive, although ultimately profitable, approach.

I will briefly touch on the things to watch out for when race watching here and next time we'll get on to a more form based approach.

Racing Videos

When watching greyhound racing in the main what you are looking for is

• Dogs that have had a hard race (bumped and blocked) but still performed well indicating they are faster than the time recorded. They are likely faster than the bare form suggests. If you are in the bookies watching the BAGS racing and you see a dog that had a hard race make a note of it and check the results to see what tine it did and estimate what time you think it should have done,. It may be a good bet next time out.

• How a dog breaks from the traps EG do they run straight to the rail, which would cause trouble for the dog inside them but hand an advantage to the dog on their outside. This info can be useful in assessing the chances of the dog in question and other dogs.

• Are they on the bunny! IE doing everything in their power to get in front and win or did they give up easy & just follow the pack home. Chasers, who are not really up for it will win less than their share of races because they don't like to be in front.

Breeders Cup Tips

It's Friday and so we have our regular look at the weekend racing from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman )

We had another decent return last week with Kleo faring best of our Cumani runners at Doncaster, winning her race at 11/2. Wishfull Thinking (adv 14/1) was one of our each-way alternatives in the Old Roan Chase with the caveat his chances would increase with the arrival of any rain.

As it happens he bolted up on good ground with not a drop of rain in sight. This Friday we will take a look at the Breeders’ Cup and we have a selection from the Charlie Hall Chase meeting from Wetherby.

To me the Breeders’ Cup is one of those meetings where a small wager can increase your enjoyment of watching it, rather than it being a serious punting mission like Royal Ascot or the Cheltenham Festival. The main action takes place on Saturday but one horse I like runs on Friday in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Much is often made of the European runners being better on turf than their American counterparts but on this occasion I am siding with the home filly Lady Eli. Unbeaten in two starts she has had the same prep as her trainer’s previous winner in this race, namely Maram in 2008, including a win in the recognised trial race The Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont. She has the finishing kick to go close here. Osaila looks the best of the Europeans.

Goldencents looks to have a massive chance in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and I am happy to have him onside at 5/4. He has most things in his favour here and for once I will side with a favourite as he bids to defend his crown.

Breeders Cup Friday
Juvenile Fillies Turf – Lady Eli @13/2
Dirt Mile – Goldencents @5/4

On Saturday Silviniaco Conti should win the Charlie Hall Chase in what is an above average renewal, but 5/4 is plenty short enough for what is essentially a prep run.

Earlier on the card I will have a couple of quid on Aurore D’Estruval in the mares hurdle. She is a course and distance winner and acquitted herself well in two subsequent starts at Haydock (subsequent Fred Winter winner Hawk High tailed off in last place) and at Aintree when 5th in a Grade 1 won by Guitar Pete. This is a Listed race and back against her own sex she can go well.

Back to the USA and I make Dank the standout bet in the Filly and Mare Turf. She has been kept in training this season with this race her prime objective. Not only will she get her firm ground but she will once again have the services of Ryan Moore, undoubtedly the best jockey on the planet right now. Add to that the positive vibes from the Stoute yard about her well-being and she has to be top of most people’s shortlist. I make her my NAP for Saturday’s action.

Elsewhere, Daredevil could take some pegging back in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3/1 looks a fair price.

Saturday

Wetherby 2.05pm – Aurore D’Estruval

Breeders’ Cup
Filly and Mare Turf – Dank @9/4
Juvenile – Daredevil @3/1

60 Points Profit in One Day

Rory DelargyWhat a day that was.

The people that took the £5 trial of the Racing Consultants service made over 60 points profit on Saturday.

So even the modest £10 bettors came away with £600 profit.

On the day they had winners at  7/2,  9/1 &  11/1. Along with an eachway Trixie with winners at 4/1 and 12/1 and a placed horse at 11/2.

I've got a selection from the guys for you below.

Another part of the service that I want to tell you about is the evening message.

When Rory and David assess the racing in the evening, occasionally they will spot a fancy that has been way over priced by the bookies.

When you get on at these prices you have locked in value and the option to trade out a bit of the bet for guaranteed profit.

They found one such bet last night and I got the mail at about 8:00 pm and I got my bet on at 16/1.

Most books have now cut the odds to 14/1, but as I type there is still a bit of 16's about (Boylesports)

Here's the Racing Consultants message sent out last night by Rory…

We hope to have more early messages now that the service is up and running, and those who've been trialling it for a while will be aware that we put Love Marmalade up as an overnight bet in May when he won at Musselburgh. On that occasion his SP was 3/1, but he was available to back the night before at 10/1 with a couple of firms.


This time the horse in question is Concrete Mac in the 4.10 at Chepstow.

The selection was a good fourth behind Fear Or Favour at Bath 2 starts back, and wasn't disgraced in mid-field last time. Both those runs came in higher grade, and when Hughie Morrison's charge was ridden by the inexperienced Charlie Bennett.

Dropped into a 0-70 tomorrow, and with the underrated Pat Dobbs on board, he's capable of going well, and is completely the wrong price with those firms who have chalked the race up.

He's far from a gimme (I was originally looking at Llyrical in the contest as he was a good second when advised at a Betfair price of 55 last time.), but I would have him in at no bigger than 7/1, and he's been chalked up at 16/1 with both Paddy Power and Bet365.

Paddy Power are also offering money back if your horse finishes second or third in this contest, which merely enhances his appeal. I'm happy enough to make him my Irish Field Nap, and will be stunned if he's not 10/1 or shorter by noon tomorrow.

The £5 trial for one months access to this service is still available and I recommend you jump on board before the entry fee increases.

Click Here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Racing Consultants Free Tips

Today we are able to share a bit of the expertise available to Betting Insiders club members.

The analysis and selections come from David Massey and Rory Delargey.

Two guys that you will no doubt of heard of if you listen to any of the bookmaker/timeform radio channels.

Below you will find their selections for today's racing along with their reasoning and analysis for each bet.

This information is posted in the Betting Insiders Club members only forum where Rory and David are currently providing daily analysis and selections to all Betting Insiders members.

Today’s Selections:

1pt e/w Silver Roque 4.20 Perth @ 11-1 (general)
0.5 pts e/w Apache Glory 4.00 Beverley @ 12-1 (general)
0.5 pts e/w double

Silver Roque looks a very fair price for what, at first glance, looks quite an open handicap at Perth but a few of these have been disappointing this year and one or two are probably running at the wrong trip too. The key to Silver Roque is simple – he goes particularly well after a break, with his last three wins all coming after breaks of 4 months or more. His last win, over Tahiti Pearl, may only have been at Sedgefield but he was hugely impressive, having the race won a long way out, and travelling strongly throughout. Add in the recent rain that has fallen at the track and the fact his trainer is back amongst the winners and the morning price looks a decent one.

Apache Glory is more speculative but there are good reasons for thinking he’s overpriced. Genius Boy will go off favourite here, and whilst it would be wrong to say he’s a false favourite as he was punted off the boards for his debut at Wolverhampton and raced throughout like he knew his job, and clearly there will be more to come, but the form as it stands is ordinary and Beverley is very much a specialist track. But his presence will mean others go off overpriced (Maybeme was also looked at as a possible e/w selection too, he could go off a 33s chance if the favourite gets punted in again) but at the morning prices Apache Glory is the one that makes the most appeal.

Winner of this race last year, this has clearly been the target again, and although he is 4lb higher than his victory last year he has also run well here in a better race from 4lb higher than this mark, so he’s handicapped to win again.

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close