Tag Archives: family

80% Strike Rate So Far This Year

Last week I read an article on Geegeez website that blew my socks off.

So today I want to encourage you to read it.

The article is Matt Bisogno's review of the London Racing Club get together, which might sound like a dull report on some trainer or other being interviewed.

But it also includes some excellent insights that were shared by this months interviewees, who were the Hill family (Lawney et al…).

It includes the bones of a system that has seen 4 winners from 5 so far this year.

I know it's only January  26th, but even so there is some potential for a decent system based on Paul Nichols horses that wear headgear for the first time.

I've added this to my notebook for future research.

There's also a discussion about the use of tongue ties which could also lead to a profitable system with some further research.

Go and have a read and later in the week we'll see if we can boil this idea down into a system that we can use for the rest of the season.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/

By the way if you are fed up with the Racing Post racecards and you want something faster and easier to digest try the Geegeez Gold racecards – Click Here

Today's selection comes from the Geegeez Shortlist report which is normally available to Gold members only, but on a Tuesday is available to all. (There are another 7 selections on this free report today – Click Here)

Today's Selection

Southwell 2:10 Abi Scarlett – win bet – 5/4 Will Hill

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Weekend Racing and Football Tips

There's a rollover on the Sky Super 6 this week that means you can win half a million pounds if you can predict the correct score in six matches today.

With no cost to enter this is a no brainer and even if you know nothing about football you should still have a go – http://dailypunt.com/super6

Football Bets

Last week we managed a £15 profit from our football bet courtesy of the The Alternative Punters Syndicate.

This weeks bet will pay £113 for £1 stakes if we get them all up.

Don't forget if you haven't tried TAPS before you can trial their racing and football tips for a full month for free – Click Here http://dailypunt.com/taps

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Horse Racing 
Yesterday Nick gave us his thoughts on the Old Roan Chase

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

The ground is declared as good.

 

 

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Chester Tips

Chester Race CourseYou probably noticed that yesterday's selection came from the Amateur Jockey system and it gave another win for Serena Brotherton 🙂

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders and Nick gives us some pointers for the Chester meeting which kicks off today.

Chester Tips

Affectionately known as The Roodee, Chester racecourse is a flat left handed course with tight bends.

One circuit of the course is just over 1 mile in distance.  Horses are constantly on the turn and with such a short run in off the final bend it is very difficult for horses to win coming from off the pace.

Front runners and horses that race prominently are those that typically do well here.  It takes a particular kind of a horse to win here, a jockey who knows how to ride here and also a trainer who knows the type off horse to be suited by the tight turns of the track.

One trainer who has an excellent recent record at Chester is Roger Varian.  In the past 3 seasons he has sent out 5 winners from 18 runners at the course to a level stakes profit of £16.20.

Roger Varian – Chester runners 2012 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

18

5

28

6

33

+16.20

 

However, if we dig a little deeper we can see that it pays to follow his 3yo runners in particular at Chester:

Roger Varian – 3yo Chester runners 2012 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

13

5

38

6

46

+21.20

 

On Friday evening he runs a 3yo by the name of Tears Of The Sun in 1m 2f fillies handicap (7.20pm).  A winner last time out, she is up 6lb and has a handy draw in stall 2.

She is Roger Varian’s sole runner at the course on Friday and looks sure to go well.

Since 2010, Mark Johnston has notched up 35 winners at the course from 224 runners at a strike rate of 16%.  However, he is just 2-23 this season with his horses at the Roodee.

No-one rides Chester better than Franny Norton and when he teams up with Mark
Johnston they form a potent partnership.

Since 2010 they are 13-63 at a strike rate of 21%.  This season though they are 1-10.  The Johnston/ Norton combo teams up with Disavow (6.20pm),  Alpine Storm (6.50pm),  Maracuja (7.20pm) and Crafted (9.00pm).

Crafted is the most interesting over 7 ½ furlongs, a trip that has seen the Johnston/ Norton combination bag 3 wins from 7 runners since 2010 for a healthy strike rate of 43% and a level stakes profit of £16.33.

Richard Fahey is a trainer who sends a lot of horses to Chester and it is his 2yo runners in non-handicaps who are worth noting.

They are 11-39 for a level stakes profit of £22.24 at a healthy strike rate of 28% since 2010.  Twenty-two of those runners hit the places and each-way backers would have increased their level stakes profit to £43.63.

Richard Fahey – 2yo non-handicap races Chester 2010 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

P/L (e/w)

39

11

28

23

59

+22.24

+43.63

 

On Friday he runs 2yo filly Super Quick in the 7f maiden (6.20pm) and she looks to have a cracking chance.

 

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