Hopefully a few of you were on Bronze Angel (14/1) in the Cambridgeshire last weekend after our trends article picked him out along with Velox (2nd) and Big Johnny D (7th) who returned a massive 50/1 for William Hill customers who got 7 places.
This week we turn our attention to the jumps and highlight three trainers who are literally on fire right now with their National Hunt horses:
It’s always useful to take note of which trainers have their string in top order at the start of the National Hunt season and I have picked out three who have an exceptional strike rate in the last 30 days.
Trainers To Follow
Charlie Longsdon (last 30 days)
Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 13.75
Mrs Dianne Sayer (last 30 days)
Runs = 15
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 47%
Profit at SP = 20.50
Kim Bailey (last 30 days)
Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 10.04
At the time of writing they have the following entries on Friday and Saturday:
Friday
Fontwell 3.15pm – Pure Style
Fontwell 5.00pm – Little Chip
Fontwell 5.30pm – Glowinginthedark
Hexham 4.05pm – Bell Weir
Hexham 4.40pm – Sergeant Pink
Hexham 5.10pm – Patsys Castle
Hexham 5.40pm – West End
Saturday
Fontwell 2.50pm – Viking Ridge
Fontwell 3.20pm – Pure Style
Fontwell 3.55pm – Up For An Oscar
The Totepool Challenge Cup from Ascot is the big handicap of the weekend and William Haggas’ Prince’s Trust is a worthy favourite. He looks well ahead of his handicap mark but the value in his price has long since evaporated.
American Hope is vying for favouritism and has good Ascot form. I would give him every chance, but again there is not much juice in his price.
At the prices, the one I like is Bunbury Cup winner Heaven’s Guest. He is very consistent, goes well in big fields and has course form to boot.
He won this race off a mark of 100 last year and is now rated 105. George Chaloner takes off a useful 3lbs so Heaven’s Guest is effectively just 2lb higher than when successful in this in 2013.
At 12/1 he would be my idea of an each-way bet if you fancy taking on the favourites.
Saturday Ascot 3.50pm – Heavens Guest @12/1 each-way
This year’s renewal of the Arc looks very competitive and you can probably make a decent case for most of the field.
It certainly looks like a race to watch rather than bet on.
However, given the global appeal of the race, it is nice to have an interest even if it makes little appeal as serious betting proposition.
One thing to bear in mind is the importance of the draw. Essentially you do not want to be too wide coming around a sweeping bend that seems to last forever, before the horses straighten up for home.
With that in mind I’ll keep it simple and side with a couple of 3yo fillies, the exact types who have done so well in this race in recent years.
I also want to be in the low half of the draw so I will have to wait and see on that score.
If the draw is kind I’ll be having a couple of quid each-way on Japan’s Harp Star and France’s Avenir Certain, even if it’s just to add a little spice to the enjoyment of watching Europe’s most prestigious flat race of the year.
Sunday Longchamp 3.30pm – Harp Star @8/1 and Avenir Certain @9/1
Nick Hardman
Betting Insiders
