festival Archives • Daily Punt

20/1 Cheltenham Bet

Posted on February 15, 2015 by Dave French • 5 Comments

Today I have a Cheltenham bet from a tipster who made 65 points profit at last years festival and who set up the year for many of his members.

The bet is one leg of a yankee and if you want the other three legs there are details of a very special and cheap offer at the end of this post.

The four bets together will pay £29,248 for a 50 pence each way yankee if he pulls this off!

The Value Backing service is in great form at the moment and is already 33 points up for 2015 with a 118% ROI.

There have been winners this year already at 20/1, 18/1, 12/1 and shorter.

Here's the selection from Value Backing…

UPDATE – See The World will not run in the Champion Bumper 🙁

Champion Bumper Wednesday 11th March – See The World 1pt win @ 20’1 Betfred

When it come to ante post betting at Cheltenham one of my favourite angles is to look for something out of the ordinary in a previous performance. Way back in 2005 I remember watching the great Kauto Star on just his second start for Paul Nicholls. He went through the race cruising in second gear only to fall at the second last. Back then a jockey could remount and Walsh having seen the winner go past him got back onboard and only just failed to win in a photo. Now the opposition may not have been world beaters, but that dramatic race indicated to me that Kauto could be something special and so it proved !

Now back in January this year at a cold damp day at Wincanton See The World put up something akin to that Kauto performance. He basically stopped to a walk 2 furlongs from home having taken up the lead and then hung left. What happened next is something I have never seen in a race. He started running again having given the ones that went by him 15 lengths start, caught them up and then breezed on by the runner up in the final 100 yard to win by 4 plus lengths and I was gobsmacked ! It is all well and good giving a few lengths or so away at the start of a race, but 2 furlongs out, that should not have been possible.

Now again he may not have beaten much, but that performance was something out of the ordinary and as such I had to back See The World. He may well be a world beater only time will tell. But whatever happens at Cheltenham that performance at Wincanton is something I doubt I or anyone else will see again any time soon.

Carl Nicholson and Value Backing members cleaned up at last years festival with a whopping £653 profit to £10 stakes, with many members staking and winning much more.

This year you can join him on a special package for Cheltenham 2015.

Here's what you get…

A selection in every race at the 2015 festival
Access to all the Value Backing main service and Value Backing Extra selections from now until the festival
Access to all the Value Backing Daily selections every day from now until the festival
The sooner you join the more bets you get 🙂
The Value Backing ante-post Cheltenham Yankee, pays £29,248 for a 50 pence each way stake – the sooner you join the bigger the prices you can get!
Optional – discounted ongoing membership to Value Backing

The price is just £20 – Click Here to secure your place now.

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Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Posted on February 13, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

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Nick Hardman Racing Tips

Posted on February 6, 2015 by kelly • 0 Comments

Today we have an ante-post pick for the Triumph Hurdle and the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, together with a trends analysis of the Betfair Hurdle on Saturday. We finish off with a look at the prospects of Donald McCain Jr’s runners at Newcastle this afternoon.

We are building up a portfolio of ante-post selections for the Cheltenham Festival on the Members Community Forum over at the Betting School Insiders Club and I can share our latest one with you today. Gordon Elliot has an interesting runner in the Gala Retail Spring Juvenile Hurdle on Sunday and an eye catching performance could see his price contract for the two Cheltenham festival races for which he has an entry.

The horse in question is Vercingetorix and he was trained last year on the flat by none other than Andre Fabre in France. He ran four times, twice in Listed events, but failed to win. He won a maiden hurdle as easy as you like on racecourse debut and could have any amount of improvement in him.

The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is an excellent trial for the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival. Unaccompanied won this race in 2011 before finishing second in the Triumph Hurdle, Hisaabaat did exactly the same in 2012, Our Conor won in 2012 and won the Triumph Hurdle a month later and last year Guitar Pete won this before finishing third in the 2014 Triumph Hurdle.

Vercingetorix has entries in the Supreme Novice and the Triumph Hurdle. I think he will go to the latter but I am happy to have a speculative £1 @33/1 for the Supreme in case he ends up running there instead.

JCB Triumph Hurdle – Vercingetorix @20/1

Supreme Novices' Hurdle – Vercingetorix @33/1

Newbury’s Betfair Hurdle on Saturday is a great race for trends analysis. Briefly the trends point towards a 5yo or 6yo (account for all of the last 8 winners) with a top 3 finish LTO (13 of the last 16 winners). 14 of the last 16 winners came from the top 7 in the betting market.

Horses tackling this on their seasonal reappearance are 1-20 and horses with more than 4 seasonal runs are 2-58. Horses that have raced over 2m 5f and further are 0-50 and are ones to swerve. Horses carrying 10st to 10st 9lbs have won 7 of the last 10 renewals but this year only 3 of the 24 runners are set to carry 10st 9lbs or less. Perhaps a better statistic is that all bar 2 of the last 16 winners carried 11st 2lbs or less.

All that leaves us with just the one qualifier and that is Evan Williams’ runner On Tour @16/1. Ticking plenty of boxes but outside the top 7 in the betting are Chieftan’s Choice @20/1, Violet Dancer @33/1, Ballybolley @25/1, Arzal @33/1 and Forced Family Fun @40/1. The former appeals most from an each-way perspective:

On Tour @16/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)

Chieftan’s Choice @20/1 (1/4 odds, 5 places)

If trends are not your thing then the trainers with a good record in the race are Gary Moore, who won this back-to-back in 2007 and 2008 and Nicky Henderson who has saddled 5 winners since 1997. David Pipe runners have reached the frame in 4 of the last 5 renewals at prices of 15/2, 8/1, 10/1 and 14/1. Nicky Henderson runs Sign Of A Victory @12/1 off top-weight and I would not put anyone off backing him given his trainer’s record in the race.

Gary Moore runs Violet Dancer at a big price and David Pipe has two in the shape of Balgarry @16/1 and Swing Bowler @33/1. Balgarry must have a decent chance after a cracking run last time out on only his second start after a long absence. Swing Bowler has finished 5th (beaten just 4 lengths) and 3rd in the last two renewals and could give each-way backers a run for their money off a similar mark.

It’s a tough race to call especially given the strength of support for Paul Nicholls’ favourite Calipto who could be thrown in off 143 and Activial who looks closely matched with Nicholls’ runner. Add in the record of Nicky Henderson and the puzzle becomes even harder to crack.

All things considered, the trends have nailed us numerous winners over the course of this column so I will stick with On Tour, despite dropping back in trip. His trainer has said that he is worth a crack at this race and it will help that he will see out the trip better than most if they likely go hard up front. Chieftan’s Choice @20/1, Balgarry @16/1 and Swing Bowler @33/1 will complete my four against the field.

Donald McCain Jr’s last 11 runners at Newcastle have finished 13P31231113. The stable is in decent form and he has the following entries at the time of writing:

2.55pm Luccombe Down
3.25pm Lively Baron
4.00pm Whatdoesthefoxsay

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Nick Hardman Racing Tips

Posted on January 30, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

It’s usually around this time each year that I start to take a look at the ante-post markets for the Cheltenham festival and I have a couple of interesting types who I will be backing now at value prices.

We will also take a look at some of the feature races over the weekend and we have a couple of interesting runners from today’s cards.

There is a lot to like about Value At Risk and his chances in the Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle despite the fact he was beaten on Trials Day last weekend.

He made his racecourse debut when runner up to Very Wood in a bumper at Punchestowns when trained by Phillip Fenton.

He then went on to win his next two races before finishing 13th in the Cheltenham Festival Bumper.

This was followed with a fine 3rd at the Punchestowns Festival, beaten only by the Cheltenham bumper 1-2 in the shape of Silver Concorde and Shaneshill.

Value At Risk was then acquired by Harry Skelton and hacked up on his hurdles debut before going down narrowly to Ordo Ab Chao at the weekend.

He stayed on stoutly after being passed to suggest the step up to 3 miles will be right up his street.

This horse has bumper form that ties in with two Festival winners (Very Wood went on to win the 2014 Albert Bartlett) and that is enough to tempt me in at 12/1

Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 2015 – Value At Risk @12/1

The other horse to catch my eye at the weekend was David Pipe’s Un Temps Pour Tout who ran a blinder to finish just under 3 lengths behind tough-as-nails Reve De Sivola and the race-fit, yet classy, Saphir De Rheu.

You could argue that he was getting 2lbs from the winner and 6lbs from the runner up but you need to take into account it was his first run for 266 days and also his first crack at 3 miles.

He will strip fitter for his reappearance and there could be any amount of improvement to come over 3 miles. I think the 16/1 currently available will be a lot shorter on the day.

Ladbrokes World Hurdle 2015 – Un Temps Pour Tout @16/1

On to today and Garde Fou has a decent chance in the 3.30pm handicap hurdle at Chepstow.

A runner-up on his two previous starts, the form of his latest run has worked out well with the winner going in again at Newbury.

Garde Fou is dropping back in trip here but 2m 4f on heavy going around Chepstow will take plenty of getting and he has an each-way chance.

Rocky Elsom is a bit hit-and-miss but he won’t mind the mud flying around and he is another in with an each-way shout based on his win at Lingfield two starts back.

In the next race, Loughalder is an interesting runner down in class and down in trip. He is 3 from 4 over C&D and I am hoping this venue sparks a revival after a lackluster effort on his seasonal reappearance.

This is easier than the race he contested at Haydock but he is 9lbs above his last winning mark so it will be a speculative punt only for me.

Chepstow 3.30pm Garde Fou @15/2 & Rocky Elsom @12/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 4 places)

Chepstow 4.05pm Loughalder @6/1

I will be covering all of the big races at the weekend over at the Betting School Insiders Club on the Big Race Analysis thread on the Members Forum. Hopefully we can continue where we left off last week.

In the five races we covered we picked out winners at 10/1 and 9/2 to go with two runners-up at 6/1 and 10/3 and a third placed finisher advised at 12/1 each-way.

One of the races we will be covering is the West Wales National at Ffos Las on Saturday.

I put up Global Power as 1 of the 2 selections for the Welsh National at Chepstow but he was not declared at the 48 hour declaration stage.

He has an entry for Saturday and I am hopeful of a decent run. He has some form over staying trips including a 4th placed finish in 2013 Midlands National, a win in the Cumberland Handicap Chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground in 2013 and a 2nd place finish in the same race 12 months later.

Two starts back he was beaten a neck by Theatrical Star who has since run a fine second to Hawke’s Point in a Grade 3 at Warwick.

When it comes to training thorough stayers, Venetia Williams has few peers. She has three entered at the time of writing and the one I like is Royal Palladium who fell last time out attempting run up a four-timer in a race won by Firebird Flyer.

Royal Palladium was leading when he fell three from home and he meets Firebird Flyer on much better terms this time around.

He has a nice racing weight of 10st 8lbs and that might count for a lot when you consider the first three home last year carried 10st 5lbs, 10st and 10st 1lb.

Saturday January 31st

Ffos Las 2.40pm Royal Palladium (e/w) & Global Power (e/w)

All the best

Nick Hardman

http://bettinginsiders.com

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20/1 Cheltenham Bet

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Nick Hardman Racing Tips

Nick Hardman Racing Tips