Tag Archives: fine form

Nick Hardman Free Racing Tips

It's Friday and here's Nick Hardman from the Betting School Insiders Club.
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We had another terrific Friday last week courtesy of Nicky Henderson’s hurdlers and he rattled up a hat-trick across the cards with winners at 6/1, 4/1 and 9/4. With Chepstow abandoned and nothing making any appeal at Musselburgh, we turn out attention back to the AW and some qualifiers from the systems we are road testing over at the Betting School Insiders Club which are ticking over nicely.

There are no qualifiers from Lingfield but we have a few from the evening card at Wolverhampton below:

5.15pm Solar Deity & Linton
5.45pm Harwoods Star
6.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45 Go Packing Go & Sciustree

Solar Deity looks to have a good chance to get off the mark in 2015 after a string of placed efforts. He is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival on official ratings but is well-in under these weights. He rates a solid bet and I expect him to shorten so take the best morning price with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker.

Stablemate Linton needs to recapture the form that saw him win plenty of races in Australia and compete in a pair of Listed races on the flat last year. I would be as surprised as anyone if Linton were to take this from his stablemate but he is one that may tempt the each-way backers at a price.

Harwoods Star got turned over at 4/9 on his last start but has a chance of making amends here back up in trip and with7lb claimer Aaron Jones back on board. The yard are in excellent form too so he is worth another chance.

The same trainer and jockey team up on Little Lord Nelson in the next and he also has decent chance on handicap debut. The final race will most likely see Charlie Appleby’s New Approach colt Symbolic Star go off a warm order. If he takes a chunk out of the market that could see our two qualifiers go off at an each-way price.

Sciustree is related to plenty of winners and was 6th of 12 on debut and should improve for that experience. Go Packing Go is also well related and makes her debut here.

Saturday’s feature race is the Clarence House Chase which sees the return of the mighty Sprinter Sacre. I for one will be hoping he doesn’t just win this, but wins in the manner of a horse that totally dismisses his rivals. Racing needs superstars and we want this one back. With that in mind it is a watching race and not a betting race for me.

For a selection on Saturday I have run the rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock from a trends perspective.

We have a shortlist of 4 qualifiers in Vintage Star, Benbens, Amigo and Toby Lerone. Benbens had Amigo some 20 lengths behind in the Welsh National and I cannot see any reason why Amigo should turn the tables here.

Toby Lerone put in a career best last time when finishing second to Broadway Buffalo in the Tommy Whittle Chase at this venue. He is up 6lbs for that and could still be improving. That was on heavy ground too, which he will likely get again on Saturday.

Vintage Star is 4lbs lower than when runner-up in this race last year. He is also back down to his last winning mark that saw him win a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on heavy ground over 3m 1f.

He has not performed that well in 3 starts this season but he has yet to see really testing ground which he may well get on Saturday. Trainer Suzy Smith has an excellent record in the race having trained 2 winners, a runner-up and two third placed finishers since 2000.

It’s a leap of faith but I am willing to make him one of my selections from the shortlist in the hope this is a true test of stamina.

I am torn between Benbens and Toby Lerone for my second selection but I will side with Benbens as the father & son Twiston-Davies combination has been in fine form recently. In addition he was travelling as well as anything in the Welsh National until running out of gas about three flights from home. Back down in trip I think he can go well.

Saturday Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Star e/w
Benbens e/w

The one runner who does interest me on Saturday’s cards is super-tough mare Carole’s Spirit in the Mare’s Hurdle race at Ascot.

A winner of 4 of her 5 starts her only defeat came at the hands of Highland Retreat who has gone on to be an exciting novice chaser for Harry Fry.

Against her own sex and proven over track, trip and ground I expect her to go very close.

Saturday Ascot 1.50pm
Carole’s Spirit

Good Luck
Nick Hardman
Betting School Insiders Club

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Musselburgh Racing Tips

Today we have our regular column from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders who has pointed us at some big priced winners since he started contributing.

Take note of today's wisdom…

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Not long ago we highlighted William Haggas as a trainer to follow at Musselburgh.

He has had just 11 runners at the track since 2010 and 5 have won, including three of the last four.

In fact he is 1-1 in 2012, 1-1 in 2013 and 1-2 in 2014.

On Friday he has 3 horses entered up at the Scottish track:

4.30pm Enville
5.40pm Westerly
6.40pm Meeting Waters

We also highlighted the fine strike rate that Alan Swinbank has up at Musselburgh with his handicap runners over 1m to 1m 6f.

Since 2010, he has had 47 runners in 1m to 1m 6f handicaps and 12 have won giving him a strike rate of 25.53% and a level stakes profit of +20.25pts.

His string is in fine form at present and his last 7 runners at Musselburgh have finished 5113211.

He has the following entries on Friday:

7.10pm Giovanni Jack

The Betfred Sprint Cup is the feature race on Saturday at Haydock and I have looked at the profiles of the winning horses since 1997.

Horses aged 3 to 5 have won 15 of the last 17 renewals and 14 of the last 17 winners were rated 109+.

Since 1997, 13 winners arrived here on the back of a top 3 finish, 15 winners have come from the top 6 in the betting and 14 winners had previous winning form over 6f.

Interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had run over further than 6f.

Just one horse ticks all those boxes and that is Henry Candy’s Music Master @8/1.

Favourite Sole Power has never won over 6f, whilst Gordon Lord Byron falls down on the age stat only.

Those that tick all the boxes except for being in the top 6 in the betting are Professor @66/1, Es Que Love @20/1 and Baccarat @25/1, all of whom are available at big odds.

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Premier League Football Tips

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

Premier League Preview

This Sunday the first silverware of the season is decided as Sunderland take on the might of Manchester City in the Capital One Cup Final at New Wembley. Of course all the smart money will be on a convincing win for City but you have to keep in mind that Gus Poyet has really got his team fired up for the cup competitions this season and perhaps just maybe there might be a surprise on the cards.

Either way it is a one off match and as a neutral it’s always fun to watch a major match at the home of football.

Back in the Premier League the other clubs in the top four Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool all face tricky away ties.

Chelsea travel the short distance to local rivals Fulham. Although they may be poles apart in terms of their respective spending power these matches always have an extra spicy flavour to them and new Fulham boss Felix Magath will be hoping to call on all his experience and outfox Jose Mourinho.

In their last outing against West Brom the Cottagers looked good value for a narrow win before the Baggies equalised and Magath will be expecting his side to at least put up a good fight even if they do succumb to an expected loss.

With his side languishing at the foot of the table he really does need to get points on the board as soon as possible but I fear it will be too much to ask of his side this weekend. I expect a clear Chelsea win by 2 or more goals.

Arsene Wenger takes his gunners up to the Potteries in what has proved in previous years to be a very difficult place for him to get any points. But with Tony Pulis no longer in charge of Stoke it could just be that he has put that hoodoo to bed now and they will face an easier task.

As for Stoke they are very much in the middle of the relegation dogfight and sit just three points clear of safety. Another loss with good results for the clubs around them could see them fall inexorably into the Championship with a whimper in the coming months.

The Stoke of old would fall back onto their strengths – the long throws, combative midfield dominance and sheer guts but I’m not so sure that this Stoke side possess that. Just one win in their last ten league games tells a story. I expect the Gunners to continue their fine form against the lower sides in the league and dispatch them quietly and efficiently by the odd goal in 3.

Liverpool have the advantage of playing in the early evening match on Saturday and will know how their main rivals have fared. They face a tricky but manageable trip to the south coast as they take on Southampton. Following on from their superb start to the season the Saints have faltered as they settled comfortably into mid table. With the dual strike partnership of Suarez and Sturridge on fire at the moment I would expect the Reds to march on once more and snatch all three points.

At the other end of the table just 7 points separates nine clubs from a place in the relegation zone.

This weekend we see a couple of big six point matches as Aston Villa play Norwich and Swansea play Crystal Palace.

With Villa and Norwich both on 28 points and just four points from 18th spot this should be a really keenly fought game. Both clubs will know that they have the opportunity to propel themselves into mid table with one good result.

They will only need to glance up and take a look at West Ham to see how a short run of good form can transform their season for a little motivation. If they are unable to inspire a little enthusiasm into their game then they could be dragged down at a rate of knots into the bottom three. I suspect that this match has a draw written all over it or perhaps a narrow win but to be honest it’s just too close to call.

Swansea will play a rejuvenated Crystal Palace side led by the experienced Tony Pulis. This is a man who has held the reins at Stoke City for a long time and faced many a relegation struggle. He knows how to get his sides scrapping for every point on offer and I wouldn’t bet against him firing his side up so much that they sneak a win in deepest Wales this weekend.

Palace have won three of their last five games with two losses coming against Arsenal and Manchester United. On a playing field which is reasonably even, Palace have proven time and again that they can do the business. I expect them to snatch all three points and continue their fight for Premier League survival.

Double Tip this weekend

It’s an obvious one I know but why not cash in as the two top clubs continue their march on to the Champions League. Both Chelsea and Arsenal are odds on favourites to win at 4/9 and 4/6 respectively for a reason and should cruise to victory this Saturday. If you fancy a cheeky punt on a longer shot I’d consider Crystal Palace to win at Swansea at 4/1.

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today's Selections

6.05 Wolverhampton Great Demeanour – eachway bet – 33/1 Bet Victor
8.35 Wolverhampton Acting Talent – Win Bet – 5/2 Will Hill

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