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Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

Royal Ascot Selections – Day 2

As promised we have another Royal Ascot Selection from Nick Hardman today.

Yesterday the free tips we posted finished 1st at even money and 3rd at 12/1, so hopefully you had a few pennies on those. Nick went on to make 4.4 points across the whole card.

If you want all of Nick's selections today you can find them in the Betting School Insiders Club and if you're not already a member you can join here.

https://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Today the first race is a tougher challenge…

2.30pm Jersey Stakes

From a betting perspective, Day 2 could not get off to a trickier start than a 7f race of 23 runners. As always, cases can be made for many so I will be using cautionary stakes on this one for sure.

At the head of the market are French Guineas 4th Muwaary @11/2 and Irish Guineas 3rd Mustajeeb @13/2.

Both will go close if they improve on those runs. Of the two I prefer Muwaary solely because John Gosden’s horses are running so well and he is the preference of jockey Paul Hanagan.

Aiden O’Brien has won the last two renewals and has three entered here, but they all need to improve on what they have shown this year to get involved.

However, before writing them off it is worth noting that Ishvana won this for O’Brien @20/1 in 2012 when largely unfancied.

Big Time @16/1 for John Joseph Murphy is interesting on his juvenile form (2nd in a Group 2 and 2nd in a Group 1 after winning his maiden).

He made his reappearance in the Irish Guineas and a mile seemed to stretch his stamina.

He has something to find with Mustajeeb on that running but gets 3lb here on that rival and he may well strip fitter for the run.

The horse that beat Big Time in those Group races was Sudirman. He came up short in Group 1 company after that and was a bit disappointing on his reappearance, managing just 4th in a Listed race.

He is another who will improve for the run but all of his winning has been done over 6f. He does rate a big danger if seeing out the trip and 20/1 is tempting.

Elsewhere, Parbold has become expensive to follow since his 2nd in the Coventry at the Royal Meeting last year. His conqueror last time out was That Is The Spirit who made it 3 from 3 in doing so. He has made all in 2 of those wins (and led from halfway in the other) and he might well be taken on for the lead here.

If that happens it would be no surprise to see Parbold reverse the form with Ryan Moore on board.

All in all a fascinating race and really one to watch rather than getting heavily involved in.

If pushed for a tip I would side with Muwaary @11/2 (I wouldn’t want to go any shorter than that) and Big Time at an each-way price of 16/1 (Bet365 go 4 places but offer just 11/1 on Big Time).

Don’t be surprised to see Sudirman @20/1 and Parbold @18/1 outrun their prices.

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Seven Day Winners

Having gone full time in this business since last June, I have had a lot more time to look into things that had caught my eye in the past but I hadn't had the time to research.

I am a big stats fan but to access the stats I use, it is necessary to buy the Racing Post newspaper. Because you can't buy it over here in rural Brittany, it is necessary to subscribe to the Racing Post online newspaper which is available from 3 am each day.

In this series of articles, I am going to analyse known, proven, horse fitness and its growing relevence. On the basis of this analysis, I will be giving away two profitable systems – one with a 50% strike rate and a return on investment, (ROI), of 118% and the other with a 30% strike rate and a 125% ROI.

They say a picture paints a thousand words so click on the following screenshot link to show you what put me on the scent:

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

A random day, it happened to be the day I wrote the ebook, Fit and Fancied Jumpers, and the screenshot is taken from the statistics page which is, as I said, only available in the Racing Post newspaper or in the online version.

As you can see, all three trainers with horses running again within 7 days of having won, have a much higher strike rate with such horses than they do with their runners overall. With Andrew Balding he has won with 27% of his horses that are turned out again within 7 days compared to 13% with all his runners; Noel Quinlan is 56% compared to 10% overall and David O'Meara is 23% as against 10% generally.

This is not atypical. It is more pronounced than normal but, generally, when you look at this list in the Post, you will find that the trainers who fire out their horses again quickly tend to have a better – sometimes, as with Noel Quinlan above, a dramatically better – strike rate than that of their runners generally.

I noticed this years ago, when they first showed these stats, and began to wonder why. I started researching on the old system builder, Racing Systems Builder, RSB, and the first thing I noticed was that more and more such runners were appearing.

It is possible to research way back to 1986 on the flat with RSB. That year just 315 horses were sent out to try to achieve the feat of winning again within 7 days. By 2008, this had risen to 5529!

Why? Why are trainers so much more inclined to try nowadays?

Certainly, there have always been trainers capable of this. Sir Mark Prescott springs to mind as one who can put a sequence together in a short time, and, over the sticks, Martin Pipe used to be famous for it. But nowadays, even the smallest operations seem to have success with their efforts for a quick repeat win.

My theory is that trainers generally have their horses a lot fitter today because they have learned the lessons from pioneers like Martin Pipe and have better facilities to help their horses recover quicker etc.

I will test this theory tomorrow when I take you step by step through the process of building a system based on these observations.

John Cutts

Today's Selection

Sedgefield 1.20 Phoenix Returns – Each way bet – 7/1 Bet 365
 

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Greyhounds – Is it fast enough

Once we have found a dog that looks like it will have a favourable position, ideally in front, at the first bend and will not get any trouble on the way to the bend then all you need to know now is whether it is fast enough to hold onto its lead.

It is very common to find a dog that will get a clear run around and will lead most of the way in a race only to lose in the closing stages.

These sprint type dogs just don’t have the stamina to hold on to the winning line and are a trap for anybody using the kind of strategy that we have discussed here.

The key clue to whether we are dealing with this kind of dog is its past race positions. If it has led previously all the way but still not won then you need to find a reason why it might hang on today. EG If in a previous race the positions are shown as 2111 but the dog didn’t win the race then this is a danger signal.

Maybe it is an easier race today maybe a lower grade. Maybe it is fitter today, if the last run came after rest or it is a puppy who is improving. If you can’t find a reason then maybe you should give this one a miss.

Because graded races are in theory constructed such that any dog could win, other than the types mentioned above, I tend to not pay too much attention to the previous times recorded by each dog. As long as my selection is not way slower than the opposition then I am likely to go with it.

The exceptions to this are where I can see a reason why one of the opposition might improve. These include…

Puppies. Young dogs that are just starting out on their careers which can improve in leaps and bounds.

Rested dogs. Dogs that have been off for a rest and are not yet running to their pre rest form. EG If they were running A4 grade before their rest but are now reappearing in an A6 then it is likely that at sometime soon they will return to the previous grade IE they are better than their opposition.

Bitches that have been in season. Bitches don’t run when they are in season. When they return they tend to find significant improvement at around 16 weeks after their season commenced. This tendency is significant enough to be a profitable strategy in itself.

One final point to keep in mind is that you don’t have to bet just one selection in a race. If you have narrowed a race down to two or three contenders then consider splitting your stakes between them.

Splitting stakes across multiple selections is a strategy I use a lot in greyhound racing. You can either bet the same stake on each dog or adjust your stake so you make the same profit whichever of your selections wins. There is a free tool at www.oddschecker.com that will help you determine the correct stakes for dutching selections.

And that is the method that I use to find winning greyhound selections. As with any betting method you are looking for a dog with a strong chance of winning and one that has a better chance than the available odds suggest. There is no clear cut selection ever, because if a dog is an obvious winner then the odds will reflect that.

But that said I have frequently found selections that I am sure will win, barring accidents, at 4/1 and 5/1.

Today's selection

6.20 Haydock Seven of Clubs Win Bet

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