Tag Archives: form study

Winners at 14/1, 6/1, 11/2

Have you been following the Focus Ratings free trial?

At Just £10 per month or £25 per quarter these are well worth having in your armoury.

Click Here for Focus Ratings

Yesterday the top 3 rated won 17 of the days 33 races!

These included…

Huntingdon 1.40 Fergall – Won 14/1
Taunton 2.40 Seaside Shuffle – Won 6/1
Newcastle 1.50 Zaru – Won 11/2
Tramore 3.05 Miss Palm – Won 9/2
Taunton 3.10 Capisci – Won 9/2

These ratings can be used in all sorts of ways.

To support your form study or to help narrow down selections from other systems.

Or for framing perms for Placepots or Jackpot bets or they can be ducted together for a high strike rate approach.

Click Here for Focus Ratings

Lay Debutants

12:20:00 Southwell 9 Rio Ranger (IRE)
18:15:00 Dundalk 1 Botticellis Venus (IRE)

Lay Handicap

18:55:00 Wolverhampton 4 Stanlow

Today's Selection

2.55 Bangor Kayfrou – win bet – 3/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Sky Bet

2 Year Old Specialists

This weekend I've been looking through my library of racing and betting publications looking for systems and angles from previous years to see if they still hold.

Well I say library, it's actually a cardboard box that I keep in a cupboard!

I read an interesting piece in the July 2011 copy of the Betting Insiders Members Report about trainers who specialise or at least who are profitable with their juveniles.

So today I've checked out the stats for Ralph Beckett who does very well with his two year olds.

When concentrating on a particular trainer data can be limited with sample sizes small, so it can pay to just work out general rules that will get you a shortlist of horses that you can apply some form study to, to find your selections.

The headline figures for the Ralph Beckett 2 year olds back to 2003 are as follows…

Runs = 1130
Wins = 166
Strike Rate = 14.69%
SP Profit = 205.46
SP ROI = 18.18%

So it would seem that it's always worth paying attention to the Beckett 2 year olds.

Those numbers can be improved if we discard the runs in Nurseries (2 year old handicaps)

Runs = 919
Wins = 136
Strike Rate = 14.8%%
SP Profit = 210.96
SP ROI = 22.95%

Although the above stats look good over the long term and look like a good starting point for a profitable system, the recent years show a loss. This will be because the Beckett runners are now very popular with backers and although the strike rate holds up, the horse are over bet and there is no profit at SP.

One area where the prices are still holding up and that is still looking profitable is with the All Weather runners.

If we look at the last 5 years for All Weather 2 year olds in non handicaps each year has been profitable and the overall results are…

Runs = 136
Wins = 37
Strike Rate = 27.21%%
SP Profit = 98.29
SP ROI = 72.27%

Ralph Beckett has runners at Lingfield (AW) on Wednesday.

Today's Selection

2.30 Ayr West Leake Hare – win bet – 13/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Boylesport

Value Betting System

I have been talking recently to a guy who started his betting career on a serious basis a few years ago. And by serious I mean he had to live off of the money he won.

He told me about the method that he used to find his value bets, which required no form study, and essentially was just comparing prices between bookmakers and Betfair.

This is a method I've heard about before and I've now done a bit of research for this article.

Basically the theory goes something like this…

1. Betfair odds represent the true chance of a horse winning (Wisdom of Crowds etc)

2. If you can get better odds from a bookmaker than the Betfair odds you have value.

3. When you find such a bet you either back with the bookie and lay off at Betfair for a guaranteed profit or just back the horse with the bookie because it is a value bet and you will win in the long run.

So I'm sure that has raised two questions in your mind, how profitable is it and how hard is it to find the selections.

Let's start with finding the selections, basically all this requires is to scan though the cards at Oddschecker looking for horses that have a bigger bookies price than the Betfair price.

Then clicking through to Betfair to see if you can lay the selection at shorter odds than the bookie price. If you can then place the bet with the bookie and either lay it or not at Betfair depending on which strategy you are using.

While looking for some data to confirm that this is still a profitable strategy I came across a tool that will find the bets for you and this tool has a results page showing results going back three years. Here's a screenshot for 2012.

Racing Synergy results

You can click here to get the full breakdown on Bet Synergy.

If you've used this method, this software or anything similar do let me know in the comments.

Today's Selection

Southwell 4.05 Burgoyne – win bet – 2/1 Bet365

Betting Against the Crowd

Today we have part two of Phil Eadie's words of wisdom regarding his preference for betting against the crowd.

If you missed yesterdays part one then you can read that here.

To find out more about Phil and to read his thoughts on today's Aintree meeting head over to his blog here, while you're there I recommend you check out his Partners in Profit system.

Here's Phil…

So yesterday we talked about how backing favourites is no way to make money and how you don't have to spend hours studying form to find winning selections.

We also talked about my losing spells and how it wasnt until later on day 3 that I finally got some winners and made a great profit from the festival.

Following on from Cheltenham I again employed the same approach using belligerence and contrary views in equal measure and on Easter Monday I set about tackling the fifty races held in the UK. I came up with 27 bets, 22 of which lost.

Not to be too harsh on myself 9 of them came a close second and 5 were third.

The five winners produced over 40 points profit on the day.

No amounts of hours of painstaking form study, ratings or analysis of weights were used in determining any of the selections.

They were all however chosen using a perfectly logical and structured set of rules that were stuck to rigidly.

The message here is to take a different view to the majority of people, don’t be afraid to be wrong more often than your right.

The losing runs of which there can be many should not be feared but welcomed as essential, because it is just those losing runs that create the value in the winners.

Of course to profit from such an approach you must first develop a method of finding enough winners at such prices that will return an overall profit.

Finding winners like these is about finding a niche to exploit.

You may choose to follow a particular trainer or jockey and develop an understanding of where and what type of races they do better in.

You may follow particular horses and determine what conditions they excel in.

But whatever you do, do not develop your niche around the best or most popular names in the game as these are bound to come in for strong support and will rarely offer value, even when they do win.

The best form guide to finding such a niche will be your own eyes and ears.

Winners I know are very nice, but its profit that counts.

Try to look beyond the hype don’t be enticed by pundits sound bites of high strike rates or certainties.

Anything can happen in a horse race and it usually does.

Even with this contrary approach it should be remembered there are exceptions and you don’t need to play in every race.

I am happy to confess I have an obsession with opposing favourites, although I can honestly say I never risked a penny opposing the likes of Frankel, Sprinter Sacre or Big Bucks.

Nor was I ever enticed into backing them, preferring just to keep my powder dry and just thoroughly enjoy the spectacle on offer.

There is a more serious message within the belligerence above. You should always have a structure to your betting. Decide on your method of selection and stick with it.

Use a staking plan that suits your style or more importantly your pocket.

Emotion should play no part in your betting activities. What you bet on is less important than how you bet.

Be a better bettor and not a gambler. It’s far more satisfying to develop your own methods than to blindly follow the advice of others.

Phil Eadie

www.betorbet.co.uk

Today's Selection

Aintree 3.40 Gullible Gordon – Each way bet – 12/1 Bet365, Bet Victor, Paddy Power, Sky Bet, Boylesport

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