Tag Archives: France

Trainers To Follow

Hopefully a few of you were on Bronze Angel (14/1) in the Cambridgeshire last weekend after our trends article picked him out along with Velox (2nd) and Big Johnny D (7th) who returned a massive 50/1 for William Hill customers who got 7 places. 

This week we turn our attention to the jumps and highlight three trainers who are literally on fire right now with their National Hunt horses:

It’s always useful to take note of which trainers have their string in top order at the start of the National Hunt season and I have picked out three who have an exceptional strike rate in the last 30 days.  

Trainers To Follow

Charlie Longsdon (last 30 days)

Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 13.75

Mrs Dianne Sayer (last 30 days)

Runs = 15
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 47%
Profit at SP = 20.50

Kim Bailey (last 30 days)

Runs = 11
Wins = 7
Strike rate = 64%
Profit at SP = 10.04

At the time of writing they have the following entries on Friday and Saturday:

Friday

Fontwell 3.15pm – Pure Style

Fontwell 5.00pm – Little Chip

Fontwell 5.30pm – Glowinginthedark

Hexham 4.05pm – Bell Weir

Hexham 4.40pm – Sergeant Pink

Hexham 5.10pm – Patsys Castle

Hexham 5.40pm – West End

Saturday

Fontwell 2.50pm – Viking Ridge

Fontwell 3.20pm – Pure Style

Fontwell 3.55pm – Up For An Oscar

The Totepool Challenge Cup from Ascot is the big handicap of the weekend and William Haggas’ Prince’s Trust is a worthy favourite.  He looks well ahead of his handicap mark but the value in his price has long since evaporated. 

American Hope is vying for favouritism and has good Ascot form.  I would give him every chance, but again there is not much juice in his price. 

At the prices, the one I like is Bunbury Cup winner Heaven’s Guest. He is very consistent, goes well in big fields and has course form to boot. 

He won this race off a mark of 100 last year and is now rated 105.  George Chaloner takes off a useful 3lbs so Heaven’s Guest is effectively just 2lb higher than when successful in this in 2013. 

At 12/1 he would be my idea of an each-way bet if you fancy taking on the favourites.

Saturday Ascot 3.50pm – Heavens Guest @12/1 each-way

This year’s renewal of the Arc looks very competitive and you can probably make a decent case for most of the field. 

It certainly looks like a race to watch rather than bet on. 

However, given the global appeal of the race, it is nice to have an interest even if it makes little appeal as serious betting proposition. 

One thing to bear in mind is the importance of the draw.  Essentially you do not want to be too wide coming around a sweeping bend that seems to last forever, before the horses straighten up for home. 

With that in mind I’ll keep it simple and side with a couple of 3yo fillies, the exact types who have done so well in this race in recent years.  

I also want to be in the low half of the draw so I will have to wait and see on that score. 

If the draw is kind I’ll be having a couple of quid each-way on Japan’s Harp Star and France’s Avenir Certain, even if it’s just to add a little spice to the enjoyment of watching Europe’s most prestigious flat race of the year.

Sunday Longchamp 3.30pm – Harp Star @8/1 and Avenir Certain @9/1

Nick Hardman

Betting Insiders

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Profit Angle

I've just been reading the Mark Jenkins column in this months Betting Insiders. Mark is the guy who makes a £1,000 per week from arbitrage betting and he shares strategies in the Betting Insiders every month.

Almost as an aside this month he mentioned a Paddy Power offer he has been taking advantage of.

I can't see the offer at Paddy at the moment, but I think that's because of the International break and hopefully it will be back at the weekend.

The offer is money back in certain football markets if the game ends in a draw.

What Mark has been doing is to make a bet in the correct score market, choosing an outcome that is close to the Betfair price.

There will be a small loss if the match is not a draw but if it does finish in a draw you get back your stake which is all profit minus the small loss made with the difference in prices between Betfair and the Paddy price.

To guarantee a profit whether the match finishes in a draw or not then lay off the draw at Betfair.

More and more of the arbitrage bettors profit these days is made by exploiting offers, like this.

For full details of this easy money and other strategies join the Betting Insiders http://bettinginsiders.com

It could well be a losing day for the Lay Debutants today, because the only selection is an 8/11 chance, so I'll leave it to you whether you lay that one or not.

Also note that it only qualifies as a debutant because it has no UK runs, but it has run in France!!

The selections have had a huge surge of profit over the last few days so maybe this is a leveller.

Lay Debutants

15:00:00 Wolverhampton 6 Winterwell (USA)

Today's Selections (courtesy of Hawk Eye Tips – Join the waiting list here)

Wolvs 5.00 Singzak 1pt win @ 7’1 Boylesport

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Easy Money from In Play Betting

Today we have a guest article from Clive Keeling of What Really Wins Money (WRWM).

WRWM is a monthly newsletter which shares betting strategies every month.

Get full details here – http://whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

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In-Play is where it pays.

The Football Season is upon and I am delighted already, simply because Man City got stuffed by Crystal Palace.

I still made money in this match by laying Crystal Palace 3-1 up at odds of 1.02. City scored a 90th minute goal to bring the Palace odds up to 1.18 allowing for a swift and profitable trade, with minimal risk.

And that’s not been the only end of match highlight this season. Don’t invite me round for tea because I’ll only bore you with stories of how I backed Benfica at odds of 120 ( 119/1 in old money) and actually won.

Take a gander at this thing of beauty…

Easy In Play Profits

I backed Benfica at odds of 4.60, 120 and 27 and came out of the match £389.58 richer.

A whopping £238 of that profit was made with a £2 stake.

So how was it done?

It was a feat as magical as anything Paul Daniels and the Lovely Debbie Magee ever managed.

There were 3 components here…

  • Research ( context)
  • In-Play Betting
  • 85th+ minute betting

Research

I research all football matches I consider betting in, and so should you.

It goes without saying.

Research here pointed to a Benfica side who had lost their first match of the new Portugeuse season.

I bracketed the word Context because this is important.

Last season, Benfica only lost one match all season.

Already this season they have lost their first match and are losing 0-1 at home to Gil Vicente.

To lose the opening 2 matches of the season, when they only lost one match all last season was tantamount to gifting the Portugeuse title to Porto already!

In-Play Betting.

Betting pre-kick off. Pah!

That’s Old Skool , kick it to the kerb girlfriend!

You will consistently get better value waiting for a match to go in-play.

Remember this – there are no foregone conclusions ever and there is no such thing as a sure thing.

Ask 1.25 shots Benfica!

Teams odds will rise and fall dramatically in-play over 90 minutes.

Bet pre kick off if you want, but I’m here you tell you, you can skyrocket your profits in-play.

85th+ Minute

I already alluded to this with the Palace v City match. I would urge you to add this little niche into your football betting portfolio.

Last minute betting in in-play football matches offers you the odds you’ve only ever dreamt of.

So back to Benfica.

Let’s look at the scoreline.

The winning Benfica goals were actually scored in the 92nd and 93rd minutes.

I know because I was following the match and I distinctly remember doing an embarrassing drunken-dad-at-wedding dance when Lima scored the winner.

And if you think this is an isolated incident, let me take you to France.

A certain Paris St Germain were 1.2 shots to beat Guincamp at home.

It was 0-0 at halftime.

It was 0-0 in the 89th minute.

And yes, you guessed it, PSG won 2-0.

I missed this particular pay day thanks to my oh-so-considerate girlfriend insisting we go out!

Last season, I layed the draw in one Olympiakos match at odds of 1.04, and won, and layed the 0-0 correct score in another Olympiakos match at odds of 1.14 and won.

So instead of tuning in at 3pm on a Saturday, tune in at 440pm , check out the scorelines and see if there are any potential shock results which you can exploit by backing and laying on Betfair.

Your risk is small, your potential reward massive.

Who knows? Maybe you’ll be the next person to nab that elusive 100+/1 winning bet!

Clive Keeling – http://whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk

Lay Debutants

I'm pleased to say we had our first losing bet yesterday. Pleased because we have taken the hit and are still well in profit. Here are today's.

14:30:00 Haydock 7 Sitting Pritty (IRE)
15:10:00 Newcastle 1 Chessfield Park
18:50:00 Kempton 7 Laugharne
18:50:00 Kempton 9 Literally On Fire (IRE)
18:50:00 Kempton 12 Rochambeau (IRE)
19:20:00 Kempton 5 Hesbaan (IRE)
20:20:00 Kempton 4 Mia San Triple

Today's Selection

6.20 Kempton Ocean Tempest – eachway bet – 6/1 Bet 365, Boylesports

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