Tag Archives: future

Lay the Frogs

Don't you just love it when you spend hours researching a system looking into an angle that you think will highlight some winners all for nothing.

Or worse still when you research a system and you think you've found a micro system with a little pocket of profit and you set it up in Horse Race Base to notify you of future runners and a year later it's had just seven qualifying bets and all seven have lost.

That's the results from a system I created last January and I've been waiting for some live results to prove it works before I write about it.

It looks like that day will never come ūüôĀ

Whats worse still is that Derek Miller has just released a laying system that uses a similar angle to make big profits from laying.

It's not the same angle I was looking at, I was looking at French bred horses on one particular all weather course.

Derek's system is selecting French breds in National Hunt races, but it does serve to remind me that there are profits in following horses that are bred for different environments and that I knew that but I didn't find the profit.

And Derek has.

The good news, for you, is that the system is free.

You can get it here https://dailypunt.com/freelayingsystem

Today's selection

17:10 Wolverhampton Apparatchika – win bet – Evens Boylesports

Please follow and like us:

80% Strike Rate So Far This Year

Last week I read an article on Geegeez website that blew my socks off.

So today I want to encourage you to read it.

The article is Matt Bisogno's review of the London Racing Club get together, which might sound like a dull report on some trainer or other being interviewed.

But it also includes some excellent insights that were shared by this months interviewees, who were the Hill family (Lawney et al…).

It includes the bones of a system that has seen 4 winners from 5 so far this year.

I know it's only January  26th, but even so there is some potential for a decent system based on Paul Nichols horses that wear headgear for the first time.

I've added this to my notebook for future research.

There's also a discussion about the use of tongue ties which could also lead to a profitable system with some further research.

Go and have a read and later in the week we'll see if we can boil this idea down into a system that we can use for the rest of the season.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/

By the way if you are fed up with the Racing Post racecards and you want something faster and easier to digest try the Geegeez Gold racecards – Click Here

Today's selection comes from the Geegeez Shortlist report which is normally available to Gold members only, but on a Tuesday is available to all. (There are another 7 selections on this free report today – Click Here)

Today's Selection

Southwell 2:10 Abi Scarlett – win bet – 5/4 Will Hill

Please follow and like us:

Newspaper Tipsters

Do you follow a newspaper tipster?

I'm guessing a large part of the betting public do, whether that be a regular tabloid tipster or a specialist newspaper tipster, which these days means one of the Racing Post columns.

I've just been looking at the Racing Post Naps Tables and Tipster Challenge Tables.

In the Press Challenge which pays a first prize of £2,000 to the top tipster at the end of the year there are only twelve entries.

Two of those are The Favourite and Top Course Trainer, which I guess are included to give some context to the tipster performance but probably also to make yp the numbers!

The Press Challenge table is also interesting for the data that it doesnt include as much as it is for what is presented.

It is a year long competition and each tipster starts with a £1,000 starting bank and one pound is staked on each tip. The tipster with the biggest bank at the end of the year wins the prize, but the table doesnt show the size of those yearly banks in the table.

IE we don't know what loss has been made so far this year by each tipster.

What is does show is the monthly profit or loss to ¬£1 stakes, they obviously have the annual figures to date, but I guess it would be demoralising to punters to show them ūüôĀ

If anybody has these tables from the printed Racing Post from the last day of each month so we could build up an annual figure that would be useful?

So what do we get? For the annual stats all we get is the number of tips and the number of winners and a strike rate.

Favourites have won 36% of races this year. I don't quite understand the turnover column but I'm guessing it means how many races the tipster bets on and that the favourites are less than 100% because of joint favourites etc. If anybody knows different then please let me know in the comments.

The Suns Templegate has a 27% strike rate but only selects 48% favourites.

We get profit and loss facts about Naps, which I assume is for the month and that shows Templegate Naps at + 9 points, the negative figures from other tipsters are not big enough for this to be the year to date figures.

Where we get the most info is in the month to date.

This month favourites are winning with + 28.81 from 403 bets, not great but this is at industry SP and as it's favourites we would expect them to return a loss in line with the average over-round. So favourites are over performing this month, so far!

The only other tipster in profit this month is Patrick Weaver from The Star who is +6.44 from 382 bets.

Interestingly Top Course Trainer shows a big loss for the month and a terrible strike rate for the year.

You can check out this data for yourself here http://www.racingpost.com/news/tips_home.sd#topHorseTabs=press_challenge_form

I'm going to make a note to collect the tables at the end of each month to see if we can glean anything worthwhile from them in the future.

Today's Selection

3:30 Plumpton Fred Le Macon – eachway bet – 8/1 Paddy Power, Bet 365

Please follow and like us:

Donald McCain Junior

Do you know who has sent out the most National Hunt runners since January 1st 2013.

Donald McCain Junior.

Thats surprised me, my guess would have been David Pipe or Paul Nicholls, but they come in fourth and fifth behind Donald, Jonjo and Willie Mullins.

So today I'm going to look at some Donald McCain stats, I don't know if they will lead us anywhere, but we'll see.

The headline numbers for all National Hunt runs since January 1st 2013 are a loss of 30% on monies invested with a 16% strike rate.

Donald McCain All Runs Table

 

If we break that down by race type we can see that there isn't much difference in the ROI's although hurdles are the least profitable at SP. National Hunt Flat have the highest strike rate.

Donald McCain Racetype Table

 

For now I'm going to look more closely at the Hurdle races because there is more volume their to work with and the strike rate is better then the Chases.

Breaking down the hurdle runs by track it seems that Donald will go anywhere for his runs with almost every course featuring in the last two years.

This table shows just the ones where he's had more than 10 runs.

Donald McCain Hurdles by Course TableOnly Newcastle, Kelso and  Musselburgh have a positive ROI, with Newcastle and Kelso very positive.

When I look at Jockeys I see that Tony McCoy has a positive ROI again, despite the fact that so many mug punters bet everything he rides he still manages to outrun his odds, you'll remember it was the same with Nicky Henderson.

McCain Hurdles by Jockey

Noel Fehily also has a very good strike rate, but from not many rides.

Ok let's skip ahead a bit and see if we can put something together that is profitable for us to benchmark future McCain runners that we are considering betting.

What I've done is to select all tracks where the strike rate was over 20%, I've then discounted the off season months and only looked at October to March.

And I've excluded Heavy going.

Which gives me a 29.4 % ROI at iSP and a 29% strike rate from 150 runs.

Donald McCain Micro System

 

The courses I included are

Ayr, Bangor, Cartmel, Catterick, Kelso, Musselburgh, Newcastle, Sedgefield & Worcester.

We can improve the ROI by only including Jason Maguire rides but then we will be below 100 bets since January 1st 2013.

Today's Selection

Carlisle 4:00 Court Dismissed – win bet – 5/4 Bet 365

Please follow and like us:
Facebook
Twitter
RSS
Follow by Email
Google+
https://dailypunt.com/tag/future/">

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close