Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.
Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that’s 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.
If you enjoy Nick’s columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.
We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.
Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.
Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.
Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.
He has the following entries at the time of writing:
1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)
At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.
His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.
He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.
The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.
Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:
2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)
One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.
Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.
The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.
In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.
There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.
He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.
That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.
However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.
Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.
Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)
At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.