Tag Archives: Good Place

Stop at a Winner Systems

Today Malcolm from http://greyhorsebot.com is back with details of a test he is running on a stop at a winner system…

Stop at a winner.

Have you ever tried a stop at a winner system?

You know where you have a number of selections for the day but stop as soon as you get the first win?

The people against SAW argue…

…”If the selections you are using are profitable then why stop?”

Although I agree some of my experiments are showing that they can actually be just as profitable or more so over time.

It can also mean you don’t have to put up with so many losers.

There is no doubt that SAW won’t work for every system and they are more suited to high strike rate systems where you have a 40% or above strike rate.

This normally means you are on quite fancied and sometimes low priced runners.

Looking through the race cards and looking at just the 1st and 2nd favourites is a good place to start and can easily give you 3 or more selections to use each day if you carefully consider which ones to use.

The other thing you need to consider is stop loss.

I have found that on days where things are not going to plan it’s pointless to just keep going.

In fact it is better to get yourself out after 3 or 4 losses than it is to keep hoping for a win and then having to make up a lot of lost points.

Also by limiting your maximum loss does allow you to consider different staking options.

If you are interested I have set up and experiment over at the Grey Horse Bot web site.

The selections are chosen using 3 criteria.

– They must be highest ranked by price early in the morning (around 6am)
– Their in-house rating should be 100 or more (you can choose this figure)
– Their price must be the same or lower when we get the mid morning prices (11am to 11.30am)

I am calling it an “interactive” test because you can experiment with the rating number.

You can see the results using all the selections and SAW.

You can even get the daily selections so that you can follow along and see how it actually works.

Click Here to have a look


Thanks
Malcolm
Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

3.20 Southwell Red Stripes – win bet – 7/4 Paddy Power, Bet 365

Automated Betting

Today we have a new article from Malcolm Pett the creator of the Grey Horse Bot.

To find out more about the GreyHorse Bot visit Malcolm website here http://greyhorsebot.com
—-
Knowing when to say enough is enough…

One of the reasons I originally created the Grey Horse Bot is that it allowed me to automatically stop betting.

And it also stopped me chasing loses.

I started in the early days with greyhound racing (that’s where the “Grey” comes from) and I followed a “Stop at a winner” system.

The problem I had was that even after that first win I couldn’t help myself starting again.

There were so many Greyhound races everyday that if I won early, it was just too tempting not to try again.

Of course you know what happened next…

…I couldn’t get a winner.

This led to the second problem of not knowing when to cut my losses.

Creating the Grey Horse Bot allowed me to “set and forget” knowing full well the bot would either stop as soon as it got a winner or if I hit my stop loss.

The other problem with Greyhound racing is that Bags races happen every 10 minutes and it is so easy to miss a race when the phone rang or you start chatting to someone.

Even reading an email can be enough to take your attention away from the racing just long enough to miss a race.

Having the Grey Horse Bot do everything for me just made life a lot easier.
The next step was to run the bot on a VPS or server that was permanently attached to the internet at all times.

This meant I didn’t even have to think about the bot, day to day.
Our longest running test was over 6 month’s non-stop. It would have been longer except the server had to be reset for an important update.

Testing is a very important part of my day to day betting activity and although I am a great believer in “paper” testing and would suggest you always do this…
(The Grey Horse Bot does paper test as well.)

…It’s not until you actually bet live when you find out if the selections your following are going to produce a profit.

I think this is where automated betting comes into its own.

Having the ability to set aside part of your bank just for these selections and set a stake that is smaller than you would normally have to use, all helps in the testing process.

Here is an example.

In last week’s article I introduced a new test for a simple system I came up with using 2nd ranked runners based on the BSP early morning prices.

Here is the article.
http://dailypunt.com/one-winner-per-day/

So I set up a Grey Horse Bot on one of our servers and set aside a £10 bank for the test.

I like to use a % of bank as my start test stake.

This may not work well with all systems but I find it a good place to start.
And if the test goes well then your stake should naturally increases but if not, your stake drops.

If I know the strike rate of my system I normally work out the Longest Losing Run expected statistically, add a little and use the figure as my stop loss.

If not…I normally set it at an equivalent of around 20 to 30 points.

Your have to decide what’s best for you.

Once that’s done then all I have to is click “start” and let the bot do the rest.
The Grey Horse Bot can automatically download selections based on your own criteria or using the special links that are often given to our members when we start a new test.

The link contains a live feed that the bot checks every so often and if it finds new selections it automatically adds them ready to monitor.

There is a link in the member’s area for the test from last week’s article.

I love automation and it doesn’t get any better than this.

But best of all I no longer have to worry about missing races or stopping when I should, it is all done automatically.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm


The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:00 Bangor Clondaw Kaempfer – eachway bet 15/2 Bet Victor

York Trends and Selections

Following on from last week's very profitable column Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders is back with more pointers for York.

If you want to be involved with Nick's analysis of the Glorious Goodwood festival next week join Betting Insiders where he will be posting up his thoughts on the 5 day meeting.

http://bettinginsiders.com

——–

Our Kevin Ryan angle came up trumps last Friday at Hamilton with the heavily gambled Blaine winning @6/1 after being widely available at 16/1 in the morning.

Our Godolphin 2yo angle also hit the target with Efflorescence (13/2) and Good Place (4/1) finishing 1-2 at Newmarket (their only two 2yo’s entered at the course that weekend).

This week we are off to York and first stop is William Haggas who boasts a 22% strike rate at the course since 2010 and a level stakes profit of £21.84. However, it is his 3yo and 4yo handicappers who provide us with the most profit:

William Haggas (3yo and 4yo runners in handicap races at York since 2010)

William Haggas 3 - 4 yo in handicaps

He has the following entries in handicaps at York this weekend:

Muthmir – Saturday 3.30pm 6f Class 2 handicap (Skybet Dash) @11/2

Haggas is 0-5 at York this season with his 3yo and older handicappers. However, he is having a decent season with 62 winners from 240 runners (strike rate 25.83%) and has a 30% success rate with his 3 year olds (46-154).

Our second York trainer to follow is Ron Harris and he is certainly one for the each-way backers looking for bigger prices. Since 2010 he has had 5 winners from 26 runners in 3yo and older handicap races for a level stakes profit of £51.00. However, it is his place strike rate that makes most appeal at 53.85% (14-26) which boosts his level stakes profit to £89.75.

Ron Harris (3yo and older runners in handicap races at York since 2012)

Ron Harris (3yo and older runners in handicap races at York since 2012)

Ron Harris has the following handicap entries at York this weekend:

Vincentti @8/1 – Friday 6.30pm 6f handicap
Mr Dandy Man @12/1 – Friday 8.30pm 5f handicap

Finally, Brian Ellison does not have many winners at York managing just 10 since 2010. However, he does have a decent strike rate in apprentice races at the course (3-17) and has a decent chance in the opener on Friday with Top Of The Glas.

Megan Carberry takes the ride and takes off 3lbs which effectively means Top Of The Glas races off the same mark as when victorious on his stable debut.

Top Of The Glas @7/2 – Friday 6.00pm 1m apprentice handicap

If you want to be involved with Nick's analysis of the Glorious Goodwood festival next week join Betting Insiders where he will be posting up his thoughts on the 5 day meeting.

http://bettinginsiders.com

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