Tag Archives: handicap chases

Long Distance Jockeys

I've just been reading an article by Josh Wright where he shares a jockey angle to profit from.

Basically he's uncovered three jockeys that do exceptionally well in races of 3 miles and longer.

…all three are clearly superb judges of pace, either winding up their mounts from the front or pouncing at the right time to take the prize. They also give their horses confidence at their fences as well as getting the firepower to go to war with.

The three jockeys are James Reveley, Paul Moloney and Paddy Brennan.

James Reveley

Rules:-
Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
September-April Inclusive
Class 2,3,4,5
20/1 or below
Results (2010-) :-

James Reveley 3 mile +

James Reveley has had a consistent record for some time in these types of races and is a superb horseman as well as a great judge of pace. His mounts should always be kept onside during main National Hunt season over these marathon trips.

Paul Moloney
Rules:-
Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
November-April inclusive
Class 1,2,3,4
20/1 or under
Results (2010-):-

Paul Moloney 3miles +

Paul Moloney is renowned for waiting out the back on his mounts and timing his challenge perfectly. To perform 77% above market expectations says everything about his ability to win on horses that the market has not given a chance to. His rides in long distance handicap chases are always worth a second look.

Paddy Brennan

Rules:-
Handicap Chases, 3 miles to 3 miles 4 furlong inclusive.
Class 3,4,5
12/1 or under
Results (2010-) :-

Paddy Brennan

Paddy Brennan is a superb rider over 3miles-3m4f in the lower classes of racing. He is best known in recent years for his association with Tom George, however he also gets plenty of rides for Fergal O’Brien and the odd ride for other trainers. Definitely a rider who gives confidence to his mounts and who judges pace superbly. He is still underestimated by the market.

These 3 have won nearly 400 points to BFSP since the beginning of 2010 and they are showing no signs of stopping anytime soon.

Read the original article and others at http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/

Today's Selection

12:10:00 Southwell Company Secretary – win bet 15/8 Bet 365

Trends and Tips

Here's our regular Friday column from the excellent Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman )

Goldencents (adv 5/4) and Lady Eli (adv 13/2) got us off to a flyer last weekend, the latter putting in an awesome display of speed to win going away from the field.

We followed that up on Saturday with Aurore D’Estruval annihilating her small field. She was widely available at 11/8 before being backed into odds-on favouritism.

This week we will take a trends look at the November handicap from Doncaster and a quick preview of the Wentworth Stakes and Badger Ales Trophy. First we focus on a trainer with an impressive strike rate at Musselburgh.

The man in question is Donald McCain Jr. He has had more winners at Musselburgh over the jumps than any other trainer in the last 5 years.

His 29 winners have come from 102 runners at a strike rate of 28% and a level stakes profit of £32.25.

His handicap hurdlers at Musselburgh underperform compared to his other runners (2-29, 7% strike rate; level stakes loss -£22.75).

If we remove those runners then his stats look like this:

D. McCain Jr – chase, bumper and non-handicap hurdle runners at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014:

Runners: 73
Winners: 27
Strike Rate: 37%
Level stakes profit: £55.00

He has the following runners this Friday up at Musselburgh:

1.00pm Al Musheer (Juvenile Hurdle)
1.30pm Master Dee (Maiden Hurdle)
2.30pm Welsh Bard (Handicap Chase)
4.00pm Gingili (NH Flat)

Those stats were further boosted by 5/1 winner Roserrow on Thursday in a Novice Hurdle.

If you want to dig a little deeper, then I can tell you that D. McCain Jr is 5-22 (23% strike rate) in handicap chases, 12-33 (36%) in non-handicap hurdle races and 4-7 (57%) in NH flat races at Musselburgh since 2010.

Saturday sees a decent flat card at Doncaster with the highlight being the November handicap. I have run through the trends and we are looking for a horse rated 93 – 99 (all of the last 10 winners), aged 4yo to 6yo (7 of the last 8 winners), carrying 8st 10lbs to 9st 2lbs (all of the last 7 winners), won over 1m 4f or further and has raced in the last 60 days.

No favourite has obliged since 1995 and all of the last 7 winners were drawn in stall 9 or higher.

A top 4 finish LTO accounts for 13 of the last 17 winners and at least 4 runs that current season accounts for 16 of the last 17 winners. Putting all that together leaves us with:

Doncaster November handicap trends horses:

Esteaming @16/1 and Manhattan Swing @16/1

Elsewhere on Saturday, if the word “good” disappears from the current “good to soft” going then Jack Dexter will be in his element on a track where his form figures read 1113 on soft ground and he would be my pick in the Wentworth Stakes.

He put in his best run of the season on Champions Day (heavy ground) when 3rd behind Gordon Lord Byron and Tropics. This represents a drop in class for Tropics and Jack Dexter and they would both have to seriously misfire for one of them not to take this.

The Badger Ales Trophy looks highly competitive again this year and Standing Ovation has a great chance of retaining his crown.

He is 3-3 at Wincanton and although he went off the boil after landing this in 2013, he appeared back to his best LTO at Cheltenham when 2nd to Roalco De Farges.

Standing Ovation’s trainer David Pipe has won this race three times since 2007.

Even more impressive is Paul Nicholls who has won this 7 times since 1999. He has two entries, Benvolio and Just A Par. However, both make their seasonal reappearances here and the Nicholl’s horses have tended to need a run this season.

Lamb Or Cod represents the in-form Philip Hobbs and he loves good ground. If it stays good he will be a major player.

Alfie Spinner is closely matched on recent running with Standing Ovation and could run well at an each-way price.

On a final note, three weeks ago we gave you a couple of Godolphin microsystems for the all-weather racing at Kempton.

So far these two systems have pulled in 9.82pts profit at SP so keep an eye out for the Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor runners at Kempton in the coming months.

All the best Nick

http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman

Fit and Fancied Done For You!

On the last day of my guest spot here, I just want to sum up what's been said.

Firstly, I think we have come accross a phenomena, a relatively new trend, which the general betting public and the bookies have yet to catch onto. This is the growing ability of trainers to recuperate their horses in time for a winning run within a short period of time.

This is probably because of advances pioneered by other trainers, Martin Pipe in particular, such as swimming facilites, physio, all weather gallops, etc, and other things I wouldn't pretend to understand as i have no experience of training horses.

This is just my educated guess. All i know is an awful lot more try and an awful lot more succeed these days, and that is what is important for us from a betting point of view.

I have shown you how we devised two systems, one for the jumps, Fit and Fancied Jumpers, and another for the all-weather, The All Weather System. Both of these use, as their basis, knowledge of this relatively new phenomena.

The interesting thing about the Fit and Fancied Jumpers system is that it does so much better in hurdle races with one outstanding exception – handicap chases. As I have openly acknowledged, I am no horse expert. My forte is stats and what I have been able to learn about probability. But, and again this is an educated guess, I think 2 miles over fences must take more out of a horse than the same over hurdles and therefore a longer recovery time is necessary. In which case, how do we explain the success with the handicap chasers?

My theory, as I said in the ebook, is that these are the type of races where trainers are trying to land a gamble and therefore maybe the horse wasn't given too hard a race the time before.

If it won, maybe it won in a grade well below what it is capable of winning in. In short, it didnt have too hard a race last time and therefore didn't need much time to get over its exertions.

This may explain why the system doesn't do as well with horses in NOVICE handicap chases. Horses running in these are not so experienced and may take more out of themselves than is necessary by running too keen, jumping too extravagantly etc.

The All Weather System is completely straightforward and gave us 5/1 SP winner, SCRIBE, yesterday.

Now, the question is: having gained this knowledge, what are you going to do with it?

I am afraid that, in all likelihood, the answer for many readers is, nothing.

A few disciplined souls will be able to ignore life's distractions and will scour the Racing post each night, (the info for both systems is online by 6.30 – 7 each night), for the system selections.

They will be able to back the selections at early prices on the exchanges or at Best Odds Guaranteed, (BOG) the next morning – thus gaining a further advantage. But the vast majority will not put this new knowledge to use whilst others will try to use it but not always come up with the correct selections.

This series of articles has aroused some interest and a few people have emailed us to point out that they may not have the time or the discipline to look for the selections themselves.

Also there has been some inevitable mistakes in the selection process so that some have thanked us for winners that weren't selections, while others have complained about losers that weren't selections!

This has led some to ask whether we have considered providing an email service. The answer is, we already do.

We send an email each night – whether there are selections or not – between 7 – 8. Where there are selections you get the race and the name of the horse and we recommend backing them all at BOG.

The cost is £7.95 per month for each system, fully inclusive, ie, no taxes on top.

However, we have been persuaded by Dave and the Daily Punt team to make a special one-off offer to Daily Punt readers, for today only, of an email service for BOTH systems for just £12.95 per month.

You will surely pay for that out of the ability to get on at early prices. Click Here.

Those who take advantage of this one day offer will also receive a FREE copy of our ebook BACK TO THE FUTURE, which shows you how to back your selections in a novel way which changes around half your losers into non runners!

If you are interested in this option click here to secure your place now.

I hope you have enjoyed this series and will put what you have learned to good use.

Good luck in your future betting.

All the best,
John Cutts

Today's Selection

Newcastle 3.35 Lady of Verona – each way bet – 8/1 Bet 365 will hill paddy power

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