Tag Archives: handicap debut

Nick Hardman Free Racing Tips

It's Friday and here's Nick Hardman from the Betting School Insiders Club.
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We had another terrific Friday last week courtesy of Nicky Henderson’s hurdlers and he rattled up a hat-trick across the cards with winners at 6/1, 4/1 and 9/4. With Chepstow abandoned and nothing making any appeal at Musselburgh, we turn out attention back to the AW and some qualifiers from the systems we are road testing over at the Betting School Insiders Club which are ticking over nicely.

There are no qualifiers from Lingfield but we have a few from the evening card at Wolverhampton below:

5.15pm Solar Deity & Linton
5.45pm Harwoods Star
6.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45 Go Packing Go & Sciustree

Solar Deity looks to have a good chance to get off the mark in 2015 after a string of placed efforts. He is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival on official ratings but is well-in under these weights. He rates a solid bet and I expect him to shorten so take the best morning price with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker.

Stablemate Linton needs to recapture the form that saw him win plenty of races in Australia and compete in a pair of Listed races on the flat last year. I would be as surprised as anyone if Linton were to take this from his stablemate but he is one that may tempt the each-way backers at a price.

Harwoods Star got turned over at 4/9 on his last start but has a chance of making amends here back up in trip and with7lb claimer Aaron Jones back on board. The yard are in excellent form too so he is worth another chance.

The same trainer and jockey team up on Little Lord Nelson in the next and he also has decent chance on handicap debut. The final race will most likely see Charlie Appleby’s New Approach colt Symbolic Star go off a warm order. If he takes a chunk out of the market that could see our two qualifiers go off at an each-way price.

Sciustree is related to plenty of winners and was 6th of 12 on debut and should improve for that experience. Go Packing Go is also well related and makes her debut here.

Saturday’s feature race is the Clarence House Chase which sees the return of the mighty Sprinter Sacre. I for one will be hoping he doesn’t just win this, but wins in the manner of a horse that totally dismisses his rivals. Racing needs superstars and we want this one back. With that in mind it is a watching race and not a betting race for me.

For a selection on Saturday I have run the rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock from a trends perspective.

We have a shortlist of 4 qualifiers in Vintage Star, Benbens, Amigo and Toby Lerone. Benbens had Amigo some 20 lengths behind in the Welsh National and I cannot see any reason why Amigo should turn the tables here.

Toby Lerone put in a career best last time when finishing second to Broadway Buffalo in the Tommy Whittle Chase at this venue. He is up 6lbs for that and could still be improving. That was on heavy ground too, which he will likely get again on Saturday.

Vintage Star is 4lbs lower than when runner-up in this race last year. He is also back down to his last winning mark that saw him win a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on heavy ground over 3m 1f.

He has not performed that well in 3 starts this season but he has yet to see really testing ground which he may well get on Saturday. Trainer Suzy Smith has an excellent record in the race having trained 2 winners, a runner-up and two third placed finishers since 2000.

It’s a leap of faith but I am willing to make him one of my selections from the shortlist in the hope this is a true test of stamina.

I am torn between Benbens and Toby Lerone for my second selection but I will side with Benbens as the father & son Twiston-Davies combination has been in fine form recently. In addition he was travelling as well as anything in the Welsh National until running out of gas about three flights from home. Back down in trip I think he can go well.

Saturday Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Star e/w
Benbens e/w

The one runner who does interest me on Saturday’s cards is super-tough mare Carole’s Spirit in the Mare’s Hurdle race at Ascot.

A winner of 4 of her 5 starts her only defeat came at the hands of Highland Retreat who has gone on to be an exciting novice chaser for Harry Fry.

Against her own sex and proven over track, trip and ground I expect her to go very close.

Saturday Ascot 1.50pm
Carole’s Spirit

Good Luck
Nick Hardman
Betting School Insiders Club

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Weekend Racing Selections

Happy Saturday. Today we have a weekend racing review from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders which includes 6 selections.

Before that I should just mention that the Bet 365 free in play bet is back for the Champions League tonight.

Basically if you bet £50 pre-off then you get a free £50 in play, we've covered how to get a free £35 out of this many times before as have many others.

Weekend Racing Selections

We have some great racing this weekend with exciting cards at Haydock and Goodwood and the Irish 2000 and 1000 Guineas. I have gone through the cards at Haydock and Goodwood in search of some decent prices and some each-way value.

In the opener at Haydock, Glenard looks a solid betting proposition after a cracking 5th in the Chester Cup from a less than ideal draw. Travelling as well as any, he failed to get home that day and the drop back to 2 miles should be in his favour. The booking of in-form Ryan Moore is a big plus and 5/1 is just about value. With all bookmakers going ¼ odds, 3 places you can spread the risk by backing him each-way at that price if you wish.

The 6f Class 3 handicap at 2.05 looks wide open and one horse who is worth a second look is Out Do. He has some smart form from last year, winning twice for Luca Cumani.

Perhaps his best run was when finishing 3rd, beaten 2 ¼ lengths in a Class 2 handicap at Windsor by Tropics (now rated 115) and Rex Imperator (now rated 110 and a subsequent winner of the Steward’s Cup at Glorious Goodwood). Now rated 90, Out Do ran better than the bare result at York in a Class 2 handicap last time out and he takes a slight drop in class here. He could go well at a nice price.

The Temple Stakes at Haydock pitches the proven older horses Sole Power and Kingsgate Native against the rising stars of sprint racing in Hot Streak and Pearl Secret. With 13 of the last 17 winners coming from the top 4 in the betting and 7 of the last 8 winners returning at odds of 8/1 or less, it looks best to focus on those at the head of the market.

Hot Streak appears to be all the rage having been backed into 9/4 outright favouritism and Sole Power, an impressive winner of the Palace House Stakes, outright second favourite. Hot Streak is the one I would want to be on if the word “soft” appears in the going, with Kingsgate Native and Sole Power undoubtedly preferring a sounder surface. Of the others, Jack Dexter has never won above Group 3 level and there is little to suggest that will change judged on his two runs so far this season.

Hawkeyethenoo has done all his winning in handicap company and is priced accordingly.
At the prices the value has to lie with Kingsgate Native, winner of this race in 2010 and 2013 and runner up to Sole Power in 2011. You could argue that Sole Power had match fitness on his side in the Palace House Stakes but in reality there is not much to choose between Hot Streak, Sole Power and Kingsgate Native. As long as the ground is good or better I am happy to back the old boy each-way @7/1 with Bet365 who offer ¼ odds, 3 places.

On the same card I am going to give an each-way shout to Clive Cox’s Perfect Blessings in the 6f Listed race for fillies at 3.10pm. If the forecast rain changes the going to the soft side of good then I will be even happier. Clive Cox’s twice-raced filly scored an emphatic win over subsequent winner Penny Drops, who incidentally was 3rd on debut behind 2000 Guineas winner Night Of Thunder. She takes a big hike in class here but she also holds a Group 3 entry in the Ballyogan Stakes at Leopardstown, so she must be held in high regard by connections.

Over at Goodwood, the race that interests me is the 4.40pm Class 4 handicap for older horses (6yo+) over 6f. Five C&D winners line up and the two I like are Slip Sliding Away for Peter Hedger and last year’s winner Mon Brav. Peter Hedger does really well with his handicappers at the track and Slip Sliding Away has recorded 3 of his 4 wins here. A return to Goodwood might just be the ticket for him to get his head in front again. Mon Brav won this race last year and has been running respectably since without winning. That has seen his mark tumble to 2lb lower than when successful here in 2013 and he ran his best race for some time when finishing 4th of 17 at Doncaster in a Class 4 handicap last week.

Earlier in the card we have a decent looking Class 2 handicap over 7f. Penny Drops is interesting on handicap debut but I will give an each-way shout to Mick’s Yer Man who is looking more and more like a very smart horse. Last time out he won a Listed race at Ascot from 106 rated (and subsequent scorer) Musical Comedy. He won’t mind if the ground softens up and he might just defy top weight at a first try over 7f.

Selections:

Haydock 1.35: Glenard @5/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Coral)
Haydock 2.05 Out Do @9/1 each-way generally
Haydock 2.40 Kingsgate Native 7/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Bet 365)
Haydock 3.10 Perfect Blessings 8/1 each-way generally
Goodwood 2.55 Mick’s Yer Man 10/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places William Hill)
Goodwood 4.40 Mon Brav @4/1 & Slip Sliding Away @8/1 generally

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Winning Handicap Debutants

We've had a lot of success with our lay systems and it is my view that steady and long term profit is easier to come by with laying systems.

The strike rates are higher and we've been able to find an advantage.

But backing winners is more fun and it would be nice to start building up our portfolio of winning systems.

So this weekend I've been thinking about where we should look for winners and what I realised is that the lay systems we have look at a particular angle (debutants & handicap debutants) and then focus on the trainers that perform badly with that type of horse.

So it occurred to me that the obvious thing to do is to look at the trainers that perform well with these types.

So I looked at trainers that are profitable with their horses making their handicap debut.

The headline results are…

Bets = 2008
Wins = 329
Strike Rate = 16%
Profit = 576.02
Return on Investment = 28.69%

These results are for 2010 to date.

Also keep in mind that this is profit to starting prices so we can expect a bit more at Betfair prices.

The profit from this looks good but the strike rate is low at just 16% so although profitable the losing runs can be long.

The rules are…

Horses having their first run in a Handicap
Aged 3 – 10
Horse sex = male
Trainer is one of the following

Balding, A M Barron, T D
Beckett, R M Boyle, J R
Brittain, C E Channon, M R
Charlton, R Cole, P F I
Cumani, L M Daly, H D
Dartnall, V R A Deegan, P D
Dobbin, Mrs R Dunlop, E A L
Dunlop, J L Fanshawe, J R
Flynn, Patrick J George, T R
Gosden, J H M Halford, M
Hannon, R Harrington, Mrs John
Henderson, N J Hills, B W
Hills, J W Jefferson, J M
Lyons, G M Mann, C J
Murphy, Ferdy Murphy, John Joseph
Noseda, J OGrady, E J
Oliver, Andrew OMeara, D
Osborne, J A Perrett, Mrs A J
Powell, B G Suroor, Saeed Bin
Tizzard, C L Twiston-Davies, N A
Wade, J Williams, S C

There are no qualifiers today.

Lay Handicap

14:25:00 Plumpton 5 The Informant

Today's Selection

1.35 Kempton Reverb – eachway bet – 5/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor

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