Tag Archives: Handicapped

5/1 Selection Today

I hope you had a little bet on Hernando Torres yesterday and got the 11/2 that was available when I mailed you.

Even better than that I hope you joined Gary for the full Trixie!

The other two selections both placed and overall 19.78 points were made by members to advised prices, with SP producing over 10 points profit on the day.

There's still time to join Gary at http://bookiesenemyno1.com

Today I've snaffled you a selection from another top tipping service to see if I can repeat the feat.

The Racing Consultants is the joint name of the team that is David Massey and Rory Delargy.

These guys are proper old school form students and know the form book inside and out.

Since they started sharing their tips back in June last year they haven't had a losing month.

They have three bets for today's racing and the one I've taken is a 5/1 shot in a 6 runner race…

Sedgefield 2.30 – 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (class 3)

The last time James Ewart’s UN GUET APENS saw Sedgefield was in a handicap chase just over a year ago. On that occasion he jumped well and never gave his supporters  a moment’s worry, coming right away from three out.

He improved on that when beating the 130 rated Supreme Asset at Carlisle in April, which saw his rating go to 133 over fences. There have been excuses for two of his three runs since then, as they were over a trip that looks too far (and the cheekpieces he seems to need were missing on one occasion too), but if judging him on the run in between, when getting beaten a short head by Indian Voyage back at Carlisle off 132, it’s not difficult to see he’s well handicapped today back over hurdles on a mark of 128.

With trip, ground and track all ideal, and the cheekpieces returning,  there seems little reason why he shouldn’t run his race.

2.30 Sedgefield – 1pt win Un Guet Apens (5-1 Hills, Bet365, Corals)

For immediate access to the other two selections today join the Racing Consultants here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

 

 

Saturday Footy and Racing Tips

It's Saturday and thats the day that we have to make our Super 6 entries to have a chance of winning £250,000 for no entry fee.

http://dailypunt.com/super6

We also have top class racing at Aintree and Sandown and Nick has already tipped up selections in three races…

Sandown 3.00pm God’s Own @9/2 and Somersby @10/1 (each-way alternative)

Aintree 1.30pm Benbens @20/1, Knock A Hand @20/1 & Renard @25/1 (trends horses), Across The Bay @25/1 (each-way alternative), Saint Are @14/1 (best handicapped)

Ainree 3.25pm Rebel Rebellion @8/1 (trends horse) and Dolatulo 14/1 (each-way alternative)

You can read the reasoning behind these selections in yesterdays post.

And we have our regular Best 5 away perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate. (Get one month free of their racing and football tips here)

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(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
CHELSEA
ARSENAL
CELTIC
FORFAR
PETERHEAD

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…

William Hill

Big Race Tips

Thank Nick it's Friday 🙂

Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) is back with tips for today's racing at Exeter and tomorrow at Sandown and Aintree.

By the way Nick also has an excellent article in the December On Course Profits magazine which explains his methods for finding winning trainer angles.

You can get that magazine for free at http://oncourseprofits.com

Over to Nick…

I have been working on some betting angles for the AW Championships that I will share with you as soon as they are ready. For a bit of a change I have taken a look at Friday’s card from Exeter which features three valuable races. We follow that up with a trends analysis and some pointers for the Becher Chase and my fancies for the Tingle Creek and the Grand Sefton Handicap Chase.

Exeter hosts a really good card today including a £12k Novice Chase, a £15k Handicap Chase and the £12k Devon Marathon Handicap chase over 4 miles. I have gone through the card in search of value plays and worthwhile betting opportunities.

The novice chase at 1.10pm is a fascinating race featuring a couple of smart former hurdlers in Deputy Dan (2nd in the 2014 Albert Bartlett and rated 145 over hurdles) and Saphir Du Rheu (Lanzarote hurdle winner and Welsh Champion hurdle winner last season and rated 168). Deputy Dan has form figures 21 over fences.

He was beaten on debut by Virak who has since followed up in impressive fashion at Haydock. Deputy Dan won his next start, beating Far West who was also a decent hurdler. That gives him a form line with Dunraven Storm (who also beat Far West) who won a Grade 2 Novice Chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting.

Saphir Du Rheu unseated on debut but is held in high regard by Paul Nicholls and he would win this if translating his hurdles form to fences. Connections (same ownership as Big Buck’s and Celestial Halo) have said they might go back over hurdles if he fails to perform here. If you think he won’t get round you can lay him for a place on the exchanges at around 1.10. If pushed for a tip I would go for Deputy Dan on that form line with Dunraven Storm.

The handicap chase at 1.40pm will probably see Paul Nicholl’s Wilton Milan go off favourite following an impressive win last time out that saw him finally get off the mark over fences. However, I am happy to take him on and the two that interest me are Workbench and Umberto D’Olivate.

Workbench has been on the go since August notching 3 wins in the process. His last two starts were a decent 5th of 11 behind John’s Spirit at Cheltenham and a 4th (revised to 3rd) in the Badger Ales Trophy over further than ideal. He travelled as well as anything that day before making a bad mistake.

The drop in trip could work out well but the concern is that all three wins came on good ground. His trainer Dan Skelton has said he does not want it soft. However, his last two runs were on good to soft so I will definitely be backing him if the going has the word “good” in it.

Umberto D’Olivate was very progressive last season, rattling off a hat-trick and he will come on for his seasonal reappearance. The slight concern is that his best form is over shorter so this trip might just stretch him.

The Devon Marathon Chase has a small field and the 4 miles takes some getting. It is another race that features a few horses with smart previous form and it also lends itself to a trends analysis.

No 6yo has won this since 2000 and no horse in that time has carried more than 11st 10lbs to victory. All of the last 5 winners were rated 110+ and all of the winners completed their previous race.

That leaves us with Reblis, Adrenalin Flight and Gorgehous Lliege.

Reblis is back down to his last winning mark but has shown nothing on his last two starts. He has won over 3m 5f on heavy off today’s mark of 119 so should see out the trip if in the right mood.

Adrenalin Flight has 49 lengths to find with Gorgehous Lliege but gets a 17lb pull in the weights. I doubt that will make much difference though as Gorgehous Lliege looks quite progressive over staying trips and should go close if this does not come too soon.

Reblis and Gorgehous Lliege are the two trends horses against the field. For the brave amongst you, Flying Award has won a Devon National, a Highland National and a Somerset National. However, his form figures since read PP0. I’ll leave that one up to you.

The Becher Chase is run over the Grand National fences where the horses jump 21 obstacles over a trip of 3m 2f. 16 of the last 17 winners had a top 5 finish LTO. Only one 7yo has won since 1997 and 8 of the last 9 winners were aged 9yo or older. The last 9 winners were all rated 130+ and only one of the last 13 winners carried 11st 7lb or more. In fact 10 of the last 13 winners carried under 11st. 15 of the last 17 winners had between 0 and 2 season runs and 8 of the last 11 winners had won over 3m or further.

The one horse who ticks all the boxes is Benbens for Nigel Twiston-Davies. The two that who fall down on just the one trend are Knock A Hand for Richard Lee and Renard for Venetia Williams. This may be a prep run for Knock a Hand ahead of a tilt at the Welsh National, Benbens has had just 6 chase starts and Renard looks a shade high in the weights. None of these are really fancied in the market and I have not seen them tipped up anywhere, but we rolled the trends dice and that’s what we have.

If you are not a fan of trends then there are a couple of other ways of looking at the race and one is course experience.

There are plenty of horses who have shown they jump these fences well including Saint Are, last year’s winners Chance Du Roy and Mr Moonshine. However the most interesting could be Across The Bay @25/1 who led the last two Grand Nationals for a fair way.

In 2013 he led until fence 26 and last year he was bowling along in front until carried into a different post code by a loose horse after fence 16. However, usual jockey Jason Maguire opts to ride Donald McCain’s other runner Kruzhlinin who is an even bigger price @40/1.

Despite this I think Across The Bay could well give each-way backers a run for their money. Saint Are @14/1 is probably the best handicapped horse in the race here off 127 which is 10lbs lower than his last winning mark. He ran his best race in a long time on his first start for Tom George at Cheltenham in November and he has attracted some support this week. It’s a wide open race and a case can be made for most of the runners. I will probably back the trends horses and Across The Bay to small stakes with any bookmaker offering 5 places. It would be a pleasant surprise if one of them were to win.

The Grand Sefton Chase looks like a cracking renewal. The trends on this one are not that strong but the one horse that ticks the most boxes (aged 8yo -10yo, rated 123+, carrying less than 11st 5lbs and a top 5 finish LTO) is Rebel Rebellion who attempts back to back wins off a 5lbs higher mark. 8/1 is plenty short enough.

One I like at a bigger price is Dolatulo who has a good form line through Court By Surprise (promoted to winner of the Badger Ales Trophy after disqualification of Young Master) whom he walloped by 35 lengths at Stratford back in March. His seasonal reappearance behind Sound Investment was a great prep for this race considering the 1st and 4th from that race occupied the front two places of the novice chase at Newbury on the first day of the Hennessy meeting. Up To Something for Charlie Longsdon could also outrun his price if taking to these fences.

The Tingle Creek has been far more straightforward for me. I think God’s Own has a huge chance and I have backed him @9/2 even when he held another entry in the novice chase on the same card. If Somersby brings his A-game he should give each-way backers a decent run for their money @10/1.

So there are my thoughts for Friday and Saturday and hopefully a few pointers for you. Racing is all about having an opinion and the conviction to back it up with a wager. With that in mind only back the selections below if you agree with my thoughts and analysis. Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

Friday

Exeter 1.10pm Deputy Dan @6/4
Exeter 1.40pm Umberto D’Olivate @12/1 & Workbench @6/1 (good or good-to-soft)
Exeter 3.20pm Reblis @20/1 & Gorgehous Lliege 3/1 (trends horses), Flying Award @20/1 (for the brave)

Saturday

Sandown 3.00pm God’s Own @9/2 and Somersby @10/1 (each-way alternative)
Aintree 1.30pm Benbens @20/1, Knock A Hand @20/1 & Renard @25/1 (trends horses), Across The Bay @25/1 (each-way alternative), Saint Are @14/1 (best handicapped)
Ainree 3.25pm Rebel Rebellion @8/1 (trends horse) and Dolatulo 14/1 (each-way alternative)

Ayr Gold Cup Selections

Today we have our weekly big race insights from Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

It doesn’t come much harder than a 27 runner 6f handicap.

So how about three 27 runner handicaps in the space of two days?

I probably wouldn’t be doing my job if I were to turn down the opportunity to try and decipher the Ayr Bronze, Silver and Gold Cups – three of the toughest handicaps in the flat racing calendar.

The draw could play a huge role in the outcome of all three races and we will have a much better idea of draw bias by Saturday but for now we will start with the Bronze Cup on Friday.

The Bronze Cup was first run in 2009 so we have no real trends to go on and I will look to two trainers who do particularly well with their sprint handicappers at this meeting.

First up is Richard Fahey and he saddles Gatepost and Polski Max. The former is hard to win with but I like the fact he is running well and is as equally effective over 7f as he is over 6f.

If they go hell for leather then stamina as well as speed could come into play and Gatepost may well be there at the finish passing beaten horses.

Polski Max is very well handicapped and was once rated as high as 97 back in May last year. He races here off 79 and looked to be returning to form with a close up ¾ length 4th at Ripon last time out.

Dandy Nicholls is the “sprint king” and he has Bajan Bear, Fitz Flyer, Galvanize and Layla’s Hero in the line-up.

Bajan Bear is the choice of stable jockey Adrian Nicholls and will go close if bouncing back from a rare poor effort last time.

Layla’s Hero is admirably consistent and is 3lb well in under a penalty. He has not finished outside the three in his last 5 outings. These two are probably the pick of his quartet although it would be no great shock were any one of his runners to win this.

At the prices I will plump for the Fahey pair:

Ayr Bronze Cup 2.40pm – Gatespost @16/1 e/w & Polski Max @12/1 e/w (5 places)

Telmeyd is a worthy favourite in the Silver Cup on Saturday but at a best priced 7/1 I feel obliged to take him on.

Bogart for Kevin Ryan should go close if maintaining his current upward curve.

That is a big “if” but at 14/1 I am happy to back him each-way.

A winner of the 2yo Trophy at Redcar in 2011, he was once rated as high as 110 as a 3yo. He last won off a mark of 97 in August 2013 and put in his best effort since then when second to smart prospect Muthmir in the Portland last week.

He races off the same mark here (93) and a reproduction of that effort should see him go close from his (potentially) nice draw in stall 25.

If you ran this race 20 times you would probably get 20 different winners so I will stick with Bogart as my sole selection:

Ayr Silver Cup Saturday 2.40pm – Bogart @14/1 (e/w, 5 places)

Kevin Ryan has won the Ayr Gold Cup 3 times in the last 7 years, including back to back wins in 2011 and 2012. He runs York Glory, Blaine, Hamza and 2012 winner Captain Ramius.

Of the quartet it is the talented, but quirky, Blaine who makes most appeal. He has rediscovered his form this season with 2 wins in-between unseating his rider and finishing almost plumb last in the Steward’s Cup.

Kevin Ryan was quoted as saying he is in great form and will love the predicted fast ground.

The trends point towards a horse aged 4yo to 5yo, rated between 97 – 100, had at least 6 runs in the season and who has form over further than 6f.

One who ticks quite a few of those boxes is Go Far who was an unlucky 6th in the Portland and was doing his best work at the end. I will take these two against the field:

Ayr Gold Cup Saturday 3.50pm – Blaine @16/1 and Go Far @25/1 (e/w, 5 places)

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