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Nick Hardman Free Racing Tips

It’s Friday and here’s Nick Hardman from the Betting School Insiders Club.
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We had another terrific Friday last week courtesy of Nicky Henderson’s hurdlers and he rattled up a hat-trick across the cards with winners at 6/1, 4/1 and 9/4. With Chepstow abandoned and nothing making any appeal at Musselburgh, we turn out attention back to the AW and some qualifiers from the systems we are road testing over at the Betting School Insiders Club which are ticking over nicely.

There are no qualifiers from Lingfield but we have a few from the evening card at Wolverhampton below:

5.15pm Solar Deity & Linton
5.45pm Harwoods Star
6.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45 Go Packing Go & Sciustree

Solar Deity looks to have a good chance to get off the mark in 2015 after a string of placed efforts. He is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival on official ratings but is well-in under these weights. He rates a solid bet and I expect him to shorten so take the best morning price with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker.

Stablemate Linton needs to recapture the form that saw him win plenty of races in Australia and compete in a pair of Listed races on the flat last year. I would be as surprised as anyone if Linton were to take this from his stablemate but he is one that may tempt the each-way backers at a price.

Harwoods Star got turned over at 4/9 on his last start but has a chance of making amends here back up in trip and with7lb claimer Aaron Jones back on board. The yard are in excellent form too so he is worth another chance.

The same trainer and jockey team up on Little Lord Nelson in the next and he also has decent chance on handicap debut. The final race will most likely see Charlie Appleby’s New Approach colt Symbolic Star go off a warm order. If he takes a chunk out of the market that could see our two qualifiers go off at an each-way price.

Sciustree is related to plenty of winners and was 6th of 12 on debut and should improve for that experience. Go Packing Go is also well related and makes her debut here.

Saturday’s feature race is the Clarence House Chase which sees the return of the mighty Sprinter Sacre. I for one will be hoping he doesn’t just win this, but wins in the manner of a horse that totally dismisses his rivals. Racing needs superstars and we want this one back. With that in mind it is a watching race and not a betting race for me.

For a selection on Saturday I have run the rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock from a trends perspective.

We have a shortlist of 4 qualifiers in Vintage Star, Benbens, Amigo and Toby Lerone. Benbens had Amigo some 20 lengths behind in the Welsh National and I cannot see any reason why Amigo should turn the tables here.

Toby Lerone put in a career best last time when finishing second to Broadway Buffalo in the Tommy Whittle Chase at this venue. He is up 6lbs for that and could still be improving. That was on heavy ground too, which he will likely get again on Saturday.

Vintage Star is 4lbs lower than when runner-up in this race last year. He is also back down to his last winning mark that saw him win a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on heavy ground over 3m 1f.

He has not performed that well in 3 starts this season but he has yet to see really testing ground which he may well get on Saturday. Trainer Suzy Smith has an excellent record in the race having trained 2 winners, a runner-up and two third placed finishers since 2000.

It’s a leap of faith but I am willing to make him one of my selections from the shortlist in the hope this is a true test of stamina.

I am torn between Benbens and Toby Lerone for my second selection but I will side with Benbens as the father & son Twiston-Davies combination has been in fine form recently. In addition he was travelling as well as anything in the Welsh National until running out of gas about three flights from home. Back down in trip I think he can go well.

Saturday Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Star e/w
Benbens e/w

The one runner who does interest me on Saturday’s cards is super-tough mare Carole’s Spirit in the Mare’s Hurdle race at Ascot.

A winner of 4 of her 5 starts her only defeat came at the hands of Highland Retreat who has gone on to be an exciting novice chaser for Harry Fry.

Against her own sex and proven over track, trip and ground I expect her to go very close.

Saturday Ascot 1.50pm
Carole’s Spirit

Good Luck
Nick Hardman
Betting School Insiders Club

Victoria Cup Selections

Today we have a detailed analysis and selections for today’s Victoria Cup from Nick Hardman who is a contributor at the Betting Insiders Club…

This Saturday sees a cracking renewal of the Victoria Cup run over a straight 7 furlongs at Ascot.

As you would expect from a big field handicap, this race has thrown up some decent priced winners including Excellent Guest @25/1 last year, Dandy Boy @16/1 in 2010 and Swift Gift @25/1 in 2009.

This is the type of race where there is no harm in taking a few against the field with several bookmakers paying 5 places.

It is also the kind of race that can take a great deal of deciphering so let’s take a look at the profiles of the typical winners from the last 15 renewals:

– Only 3 of the last 15 favourites have won (3 from 17 if you include joint favourites)
– 11 of the last 15 winners were aged 4 or 5 years old
– Only 1 of the last 15 winners had an official rating in the 100’s
– 8 of the last 15 winners had an official rating of 92 – 96 (6 winners were rated <90) - 11 of the last 15 winners had previously won at the distance - 10 of the last 15 winners came from the top 6 in the betting - 9 of the last 15 winners had last raced 8 – 30 days previously - Only 3 of the last 15 winners won after a break of 120 days or more If we are looking for a horse that ticks plenty of the boxes above then Luca Cumani’s 4 year old colt Ayaar @16/1 fits the bill quite nicely. Formerly trained by Mick Channon, Ayaar is a four time winner at 7f and was once rated 102. Now in the hands of Cumani he ran a decent race on his stable debut finishing 3rd behind re-opposing Georgian Bay and Glen Moss. I’m expecting him to come on for that run and racing here off 97 he may be well treated off his current mark. Others who have a similar profile include Brownsea Brink, Flyman and Purcell. Brownsea Brink may fare best of the three with Flyman yet to win beyond 6f and Purcell needing to show he is as good on turf as he is on the AW. One who could be very well handicapped at a big price is Don’t Call Me @33/1 for Dandy Nicholls. This horse has lots of good form over 7f to 1m. He also has course figures of 1433126469. Those last 4 runs at Ascot are hardly inspiring but we should take a closer look. In July 2010, Don’t Call Me won the Dubai Duty Free Handicap off a mark of 84. The following year he was 3rd of 30 in a Class 3 handicap off a mark of 88, a race won by Captain Ramius. In 2012 he was an excellent 3rd of 30 in the Royal Hunt Cup. He finished that year by winning a decent class 2 handicap at the course @25/1 off an official rating of 96. That was the last time he won a race. A month later he ran 2nd of 14 @16/1 in a heritage handicap off a mark of 102. A winter campaign in Meydan saw his rating rise to 107 and the best of his recent runs was when 4th of 28 in the Royal Hunt Cup (again at an unfancied 25/1) this time last year off a mark of 102. Since then his official rating has dropped to 95 and if recapturing some of his previous spark he could well outrun his massive odds. A slight negative is his age (7 years old). However, Excellent Guest won this race as a 6yo last year and Global Village won at the age of 7 in 2012. His best runs at the course have been in the Royal Hunt Cup over 1 mile. It may be he is better at that distance but he does have form at 7f including a win, a second and a third place finish at Ascot. He is also top of the Racing Post Ratings and also has the highest speed rating (although I am not sure when this was achieved). This could be a horse past his prime and his turf reappearance run at Haydock was well below par. However, he may also be a horse who has a decent run left in him back down to his last winning mark. I have had a couple of quid each-way @40/1 last night (clipped into 33’s following final declarations). Another couple from the older brigade who could run well at a price are last year’s winner Excellent Guest @20/1 and Belgian Bill @25/1. However they have to overcome absences of 203 and 224 days respectively and that is slightly off-putting. Excellent Guest won this race off 2lb higher on his seasonal reappearance and despite his woeful form figures since, it would be folly to dismiss him out of hand. Belgian Bill goes well here with a 4th in the Britannia in 2011, a creditable 7th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes in 2012 (having run 2 days earlier in the Royal Hunt Cup) and a win in the Royal Hunt Cup last year. It’s a tough ask on his seasonal debut but don’t be surprised to see him put in a bold bid. Selection: Ayaar @16/1 e/w (5places) Bet Victor Lively outsider: Don’t Call Me @33/1 e/w (5 places) Now 20/1 Bet 365
(Since we wrote this Pricewise have selected Don’t Call Me and the price has crashed !)

Not to be underestimated: Belgian Bill @33/1 Bet Victor and Excellent Guest @25/1 Bet Victor

Weekend Football Review

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

A Preview of this Weekends Action

As the Premier League enters its final phase one thing we did find out last weekend was that Arsenal don’t have the necessary mental strength to maintain a challenge for the whole season.

Their loss to Chelsea last Saturday was not just psychologically damaging but emphatically destructive. Yes there were dreadful mistakes made by the officials but that can’t paper over the cracks that have appeared in Arsene Wenger’s squad.

If he is to repeat and improve upon this superb attempt at the title next season then there can have been no clearer message delivered by Chelsea – you need a greater strength in depth and MUST add quality to your squad in the summer.

The money is there for Wenger and he needs to use it wisely and buy 2 or 3 world class players.

So, now the title chase has narrowed down to just three, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. Theoretically Arsenal can catch up the six point gap but in the form that they are in I just can’t see any of the top three dropping many points.

This weekend Jose Mourinho takes his men on the short journey across London to face a Crystal Palace side still fighting bravely against relegation. With the Blues in imperious form at the moment I can see no other result other than a comprehensive victory for the league leaders.

Manchester City, although in third place are sitting pretty. They are just three points behind Chelsea but have two games in hand and this weekend’s game at the Emirates Stadium against Arsenal could prove vital to their efforts to take the title.

The Gunners are a wounded beast after the defeat to Chelsea and a lack lustre display against Swansea in midweek. Will they be able to rouse themselves enough to ward off Everton’s challenge to their fourth place in the league?

I’m not so sure they will since the Citizens like Chelsea are in fantastic form. Their last five games has seen them score 11 and concede no goals at all. The form of Champions, surely?

This remains the most interesting game of the weekend – Arsenal have the ability to damage City’s challenge but do they possess the self belief? I see a narrow win for City but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Gunners snatch a draw.

Brendan Rogers and his Liverpool side must wait until Sunday to resume their challenge. I have to admit I suspected that their attempt at the title would have faltered by now – like Arsenal – but they continue to steam roller sides and score with delightful aplomb.

They play a Tottenham side who have performed very poorly against the top sides this season and will no doubt remember the 5 goal drubbing at the hands of Liverpool at White Hart Lane back in December.

The Reds have now won seven league games on the bounce and with the Lilywhites form very much Jekyll and Hyde I expect a home win and wouldn’t be surprised to see Spurs keeper Hugo Lloris getting a severe back ache after picking the ball out of the net several times.

It has to be said that I never thought I would be commenting on a Manchester United side that had lost six times at Old Trafford in one season and that those defeats would have been so comprehensive.

Last weekend David Moyes and his men lost in the Manchester derby by another three goal margin and one does have to wonder just how much longer the owners of the club will keep faith with their choice of manager.

Of course when Sir Alex took control of the Red Devils his first few months were poor. He was it is rumoured on the verge of the sack more than once but came through and I’d bet those in charge were glad they game him the time to get it right. However, the two United’s we are looking at are quite different.

Sir Alex’s first players were not world class – David Moyes’s are or at least were last season. Their total dominance over everyone last season was remarkable in that the same set of players this season seem so hapless.

They get the chance to resurrect their season tomorrow against Aston Villa and even though a Champions League place is probably out of reach I fear for Moyes’s position should they be unable to qualify for any form of European football next season.

As for their opponents Aston Villa, one would do well to be aware that they are not going to be a pushover. They have already this season defeated Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City and it wouldn’t surprise me if they added Manchester United to that list.

Once more as seems to be the case every week we see a couple of six point games at the foot of the table. Swansea have been in freefall of late and they need to get a win under their belt and get it quickly.

This weekend they play Norwich and if any side can emerge a winner then the three points gained could prove vital come the end of the season. A draw is the likely result given the lack of a cutting edge on display from both sides at the moment but this will do neither of them any favours.

Fortune as they say favours the brave and at this stage of the season some of these clubs facing relegation must start to play some good attacking football and try to force results rather than retreating into their shells and hoping a point will be enough for them.

The other relegation six pointer is at the Hawthorns as West Brom take on fellow strugglers Cardiff. A loss for Cardiff could prove terminal as they have in recent weeks begun to drift away from the pack at the bottom.

Although they are only three points from fourth bottom Crystal Palace they have played more games and with opportunities to win points becoming few and far between now they must start to win some games.

A loss this weekend and a win for their opponents West Brom will stretch the gap to six points and with a vastly inferior goal difference and having played one more game it could be curtains for the club from South Wales.

Top Tips

Once again there seems to be some easy money to be taken from the bookies this weekend as I expect both Chelsea (4/9) and Liverpool (5/11) to win and win comprehensively but for a slightly better return on your stake why not cash in on some more Moyes misery as I’d go for an away win for the Villans at Old Trafford at generous odds of 15/2.

If Villa do win it might be worth a quick punt on David Moyes to be the next manager to get the sack at 8/1.

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today’s Selection

4.15 Newcastle – Robbie – 10/1 Boylesports

I Thought I Saw a Pussy Cat

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

Weekend Football Preview

The race for the Premier League crown was thrown wide open again last weekend as Chelsea surprisingly lost to Aston Villa 1-0. The Villans were good value for their win and although Jose Mourinho was unlucky to lose Willian to a farcical second yellow card he can have no complaints at the straight red shown to Ramires.

Jose likes to mask his side’s poor performances – rare as they are – by always deflecting the blame to a third party but neutrals will have seen that his side failed to turn up until it was too late in this game. Fortunately this is this Premier League and his team get the chance to rectify that this weekend as they face one of their main challengers to the title, Arsenal.

This Saturday really is crunch time for the Gunners as they travel the short distance to Stamford Bridge. A loss for Arsene Wenger will psychologically damage them far more than the loss of points.

With only a handful of games left to play Arsenal, if they are to be champions, need to snatch all three points from this game and put themselves in a position to win the title.

If Chelsea do win then they will effectively chalk off one of their main rivals from the run in. A draw is the likely scenario for this one I fear as both sides will probably realise the importance of the match and this may stifle any free flowing attacking football.

Chelsea remain in the box seat with points on the board but all three chasing teams can and I expect will help to make this the most exciting four way title run in for many a year.

Unusually for a Premier League so dependent on Sky TV schedules we witness all four top clubs playing on a Saturday this weekend. Both Liverpool and Manchester City face what on paper would seem to be easy matches, three points Sir, thank you very much.

Luis Suarez and his Reds travel to second bottom club Cardiff who despite a change of manager seem to be doomed. The Bluebirds (playing in red) have competed well at times this season but in the end it’s a sad but true reality that the big money clubs will always over the long term succeed.

That said this league is so exciting because of its pure competitiveness. However, form wise the reds are on fire at the moment and all the sensible money will be on an away win and several goals racked up to Messrs Sturridge and Suarez along the way.

The Citizens of Manchester enjoy an easy afternoon as bottom club Fulham visit the Etihad.

Felix Magath may have notched up his first win since taking charge – a narrow 1-0 victory over Newcastle last weekend but that can’t hide the fact that it was their first three points in ten games and they travel to the most exciting team in the land at the moment.

The goals may have temporarily dried up for City of late with only three in their last four games but this must surely be a blip. I expect them to re-light their fires very soon and this will be the ideal opportunity for them to bang in a few goals. I see them winning by three or four goals and continuing to breathe down Jose Mourinho’s neck.

With both Cardiff and Fulham looking increasing likely to be relegated this season unless they can re-invigorate their season immediately the last relegation place will be decided by one of seven clubs.

I would guess that 40 points is the cut off point for safety and with eight of nine games left for most clubs I see Stoke City on 34 points now clear of danger. They should pick up 6 points in their last 8 matches.

Below them and any side with a run of bad form can be dragged down. Sunderland currently occupy the danger spot but with their recent cup exploits have acquired two to three games in hand on those around them.

This Saturday they travel to one of their nearest relegation rivals Norwich City. A win for Gus Poyet and his team of battlers will put them one point behind the Canaries with three games in hand. Surely if they can get into this position it will be harder for them to fall into the Championship than see their way into next seasons Premier League?

Of the other teams faced with the drop Swansea and Crystal Palace travel to awkward places where they will do well to pick up any points – Everton and Newcastle respectively.

West Ham play a resurgent Manchester United fresh from a fine win in midweek. However, you never quite know what side the red devils will put out in the Premier League- their trouncing at Old Trafford at the hands of fierce rivals Liverpool last week will have hurt them badly.

How will they respond? I expect they will in turn hurt the Hammers chances of staying up with a resounding win.

The last Saturday match pits rivals for the drop Hull against West Brom. Baggies boss Pepe Mel was so pleased last week to pick up his first win since taking the reins after a fine away victory in Swansea.

His advisers may need to explain the English language a little to him though since his claim in his post match interview to have “pleasured all of his fans” was perhaps a surprise to some who were expecting to be just watching a football match!

The Sunday televised games seem on paper to fall a little flat this weekend as firstly Tottenham play Southampton in their race to hang on to a fifth place spot in the renowned Europa League and mid table clubs Aston Villa and Stoke battle it out to pull away from any slight chance of relegation.

With both clubs on 34 points surely the winner here will now consider their place in the Premier League safe for another season. The loser will have to wait a few games to make their position safe.

Top Tips

If you’re feeling particularly lucky this weekend you could go for a double with Cardiff and Fulham both winning. A £1 bet would return £144 with Cardiff at 8/1 and Fulham 18/1 but if you’re a tad more realistic then wins for Liverpool at 5/11 and Man City at 1/6 may put a few more pounds in your bank at the end of the games.

There are also some generous odds to be had on an away win for Arsenal at 7/2 which given Chelsea’s blip last week could be interesting but my top tip this week is a away win for Sunderland at Norwich. This is an eminently winnable match for the Black Cats and you can still pick up odds of 11/4 on this.

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today’s Selection Courtesy of Racing Gold (£1 trial available)

3.35 Lingfield – Picansort – win bet – 4/1 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

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