Haydock Archives • Daily Punt

# Kautoyoustar

Posted on January 27, 2020 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Betfair are running a competition to win a framed photo print stamped by Kauto Star or a Betfair scarf stamped.

All you have to do is to follow Betfair on twitter @BetfairRacing and tweet with the hashtag #kautoyoustar saying what make Kauto a star to you. Full details here

Hennessy Gold Cup

It's Hennessy Gold Cup day tomorrow and there is a lot of opinion as to the likely victor, as you might imagine.

Lets start with one time favourite Great Endeavour.

Nick Mordin has a very interesting piece highlighting the shortcomings of the UK method of assessing the ground conditions on track.

As his example he assesses the runaway success of Great Endeavour in the Paddy Power Gold Cup…

I think it was misleading for most bookies to mark Great Endeavour up as favourite for the Hennessy following this run. You only have to look at the horse's record to agree with trainer David Pipe's assessment that the 3m 2f of that race ‘might be a bit far'.

I have to agree with this assessment and see no value in following GE.

So let's assess the others…

Neptune Collenges – Excluded on age and recent form
Planet of Sound, Wayward Prince, Muirhead, Blazing Bailey – Recent Form
Fair Along, Balthazar King, Tullamore Dew, Billie Magern, Qhilimar – Out of the handicap
Beshabar – Needs further
Carruthers – Prefers small fields and heavy ground
Michel Le Bon – No recent form, hard to assess, possible danger
Sarando, The Giant Bolster – Suspect jumping ability
That leaves Aiteen Thirteethree & Wymott. We prefer Wymott who's last run can be excluded after picking up an injury. Set to carry just 10-2, he will also carry our stake. Good luck

Todays Tip

Newbury 3.50 Colour Squadron (Result 2nd)

Filed Under: Tips
... ..., ability, ads, age, Aiteen Thirteethree, Art, Aw, Balthazar King, bet, Betfair, Betfair scarf, betting, Billie Magern, bit, Blazing Bailey, book, bookies, BSP, Class, Colour Squadron, competition, conditions, Cup, Danger, data, David, David Pipe, details, end, events, example, fav, Favour, favourite, field, form, Fr, GER, Giant Bolster, gold cup, Good luck, Great, Great Endeavour, ground, ground condition, ground conditions, hand, handicap Beshabar, Haydock, head, heavy, heavy ground, heavy ground Michel, Hennessy, Hennessy Gold Cup, highlight, horse, Imp, Inter, interesting piece, jump, jumping, Kauto Star, King, Le Bon, lead, Light, likely victor, Lima, look, Low, Luck, mag, mark, men, method, need, Neptune Collenges, net, Newbury, Nick, Nick Mordin, opinion, Paddy, Paddy Power, Paddy Power Gold, photo, photo print, piece, plan, possible danger, Power, Power Gold Cup, race, racing, recent form, Recent Form Fair, recent form Planet, refer, rest, result, run, runaway success, running, set, small fields, SP, squad, SR, stake, Star, start, success, tail, tee, time, title, Todays, Todays Tip Newbury, Tom, Tp, track, trainer, trainer David Pipe, Tullamore Dew, UK, UK method, value, war, way, Wayward Prince, WH, width=, win, |Winners |Strike Rate

Greyhounds – Is it fast enough

Posted on November 10, 2019 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Once we have found a dog that looks like it will have a favourable position, ideally in front, at the first bend and will not get any trouble on the way to the bend then all you need to know now is whether it is fast enough to hold onto its lead.

It is very common to find a dog that will get a clear run around and will lead most of the way in a race only to lose in the closing stages.

These sprint type dogs just don’t have the stamina to hold on to the winning line and are a trap for anybody using the kind of strategy that we have discussed here.

The key clue to whether we are dealing with this kind of dog is its past race positions. If it has led previously all the way but still not won then you need to find a reason why it might hang on today. EG If in a previous race the positions are shown as 2111 but the dog didn’t win the race then this is a danger signal.

Maybe it is an easier race today maybe a lower grade. Maybe it is fitter today, if the last run came after rest or it is a puppy who is improving. If you can’t find a reason then maybe you should give this one a miss.

Because graded races are in theory constructed such that any dog could win, other than the types mentioned above, I tend to not pay too much attention to the previous times recorded by each dog. As long as my selection is not way slower than the opposition then I am likely to go with it.

The exceptions to this are where I can see a reason why one of the opposition might improve. These include…

Puppies. Young dogs that are just starting out on their careers which can improve in leaps and bounds.

Rested dogs. Dogs that have been off for a rest and are not yet running to their pre rest form. EG If they were running A4 grade before their rest but are now reappearing in an A6 then it is likely that at sometime soon they will return to the previous grade IE they are better than their opposition.

Bitches that have been in season. Bitches don’t run when they are in season. When they return they tend to find significant improvement at around 16 weeks after their season commenced. This tendency is significant enough to be a profitable strategy in itself.

One final point to keep in mind is that you don’t have to bet just one selection in a race. If you have narrowed a race down to two or three contenders then consider splitting your stakes between them.

Splitting stakes across multiple selections is a strategy I use a lot in greyhound racing. You can either bet the same stake on each dog or adjust your stake so you make the same profit whichever of your selections wins.

You can use our dutching tool that will help you determine the correct stakes for dutching selections.

And that is the method that I use to find winning greyhound selections. As with any betting method you are looking for a dog with a strong chance of winning and one that has a better chance than the available odds suggest. There is no clear cut selection ever, because if a dog is an obvious winner then the odds will reflect that.

But that said I have frequently found selections that I am sure will win, barring accidents, at 4/1 and 5/1.

Filed Under: Systems
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Football and Racing Tips

Posted on February 14, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

We managed a return from last weeks football bet but alas no profit.

Hopefully better luck this week, I know full members landed a five fold acca on the Home Win perm.

You can try the full TAPS service for a full month for free here

On the Racing front we have Nick's Haydock selection as well as a whole heap of qualifiers from the Headgear and Tongue Tie systems that we are testing.

Football Selections

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'

(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

SUNDERLAND
IPSWICH
MK DONS
CELTIC
INVERNESS

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…

Coral

This will return about £92 for £1 stakes if succesful.

Racing Selections

Haydock 14:55 Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w) (Now best price 16/1)

Headgear System Selections (Paper trading)

15:20 Gowran Park Tiger Roll (IRE)
15:50 Ascot Rajdhani Express
16:25 Gowran Park Followmeuptocarlow (IRE)
16:40 Wincanton Gunna Be A Devil (IRE)

Tongue Tie System Selections (Paper trading)

13:40 Gowran Park Posh Frock (IRE)
13:55 Wincanton Opening Batsman (IRE)
14:30 Wincanton Heres Herbie
14:40 Ascot Hey Big Spender (IRE)
16:00 Haydock Fletchers Flyer (IRE)
16:10 Wincanton Memphis Magic (GER)

Filed Under: Tips
... ..., Ascot, Ascot Hey Big, Ascot Rajdhani Express, Aways, batsman, best overall odds*, best price, bet, bets, better luck, Celtic, CELTIC INVERNESS, Coral, e/w, fold acca, football, football bet, Football Selections, GER, Gowran Park, Gowran Park Followmeuptocarlow, Gowran Park Posh, Gowran Park Tiger, Grand National, Grand National Trial, Harry The Viking, Haydock, Haydock Fletchers Flyer, Haydock Grand National, Haydock selection, headgear, Hey Big Spender, home, home win, home win perm, Hopefully, IPSWICH MK DONS, IRE, Luck, members, Nick, odds, Opening Batsman, paper, Paper trading, Perm, price, profit, qualifiers, racing, racing selections, Rajdhani Express, return, selection, selections, Selections Haydock Grand, service, stakes, Sunderland, systems, TAPS, TAPS service, Tie System Selections, Tiger Roll, Tongue, tongue tie, Tongue Tie systems, trading, trial, week., win, Wincanton, Wincanton Gunna, Wincanton Heres Herbie, Wincanton Memphis Magic, Wincanton Opening Batsman, |Winners |Strike Rate

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Posted on February 13, 2015 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

Filed Under: Tips
... ..., 2lbs, analysis, backing, Barry Geraghty, best race, Betfair, Betfair Hurdle, betting, Betting Insiders, Betting Insiders column, betting markets, Betting School, Betting School Insiders, box, boxes, build, Cheltenham, Cheltenham Festival, clean sheet, closer look, Club, column, course, e/w, early promise, entries, Fakenham runners, favourite, feature, feature races, festival, finish LTO, Flat, Friday, Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson, GOING, Grand National, Grand National Trial, hand, handicaps, Harry The Viking, Haydock, Haydock Grand National, heavy, heavy going, Henderson’s runners, Hennessy, horse, hurdle, Hurdlers, hurdles, Hurdles races, impressive strike rate, Insiders Club, jumps, key trends, level stakes, level stakes profit, long time, look, loss, LTO, Lucinda Russell, maiden, maiden races, mark, markets, mention, National Hunt, NATIONAL HUNT CHASE, NH Flat Race, Nicholls, Nick, Nick Hardman, Nicky Henderson, Novice hurdle, Paddy, paper, Paper trading, Paul Nicholls, price, profit, qualifier, race, races, racing, rating, Rigadin De Beauchene, run, runner, runner-up, runners, Sandown, Sandown Paddy, school, School Insiders Club, small loss, Soft, SP, stakes, strike rate, Teaforthree, time, Tongue, tongue tie, tracks, trading, trainer, Trends, trends analysis, trial, Venetia Williams, victory, Violet Dancer, weekend, win, winner, winners, wisdom, Won, worth, |Winners |Strike Rate

Tag Archives: Haydock

# Kautoyoustar

Greyhounds – Is it fast enough

Football and Racing Tips

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman