Tag Archives: heads

Nick Hardman Tips

Anybody that followed our Friday Nick Hardman columns in 2014 will have made plenty of profit from the selections posted.

2015 has already got off to a great start and today Nick has selections at Huntingdon and Doncaster and selections for tomorrows Lanzarote…

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We had a great start to 2015 with 3 winners from our 5 AW selections in addition to L’Ami Serge winning comfortably and Triolo D’Alene grabbing some place money @16/1 under a brilliant ride by Barry Geraghty on Saturday.

This week we turn our attention to the Friday cards at Huntingdon and Doncaster and we have a couple of selections for the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday.

Nicky Henderson has a 44% strike rate at Huntingdon in the last 2 years. In that time he has sent out 15 winners from 34 runners. 9 of those winners were in hurdles races and he is 3-4 in maiden hurdles at the course.

Today he has a couple of qualifiers who are pretty much unknown quantities.

Huntingdon 1.20pm Maestro Royale
Huntingdon 2.30pm Hel Tara

Nicky Henderson also does well at Doncaster with his hurdlers. In the last two years his hurdlers at the course are 15-37 (41% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of £37.46.

His handicap hurdlers have a lower strike rate (31%) but tend to pop up at decent prices with his last 4 handicap hurdle winners at the course returning industry SPs of 16/1, 15/2, 8/1 and 8/1. He has a trio of hurdle runners today.

Doncaster 12.30pm Saint Charles (Maiden hurdle)
Doncaster 1.35pm Nicolas Chauvin (Novice hurdle)
Doncaster 3.15pm Earth Amber (Handicap hurdle)

The Lanzarote Hurdle is one of the feature races on Saturday and I like the look of Dawalan and Hello George who are both backable each-way at 8/1.

Dawalan represents the Henderson/ Geraghty combination.

Back in November he got to within half a length of Sign Of A Victory over 2 miles and the latter is now rated 149 over hurdles having been last seen in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.

Dawalan also had the re-opposing Kilcooley 16 lengths behind that day and that horse has gone on and franked that form (2nd to L’Ami Serge and 23 length winner at Haydock on his next two starts).

What is more significant though in the context of the Lanzarote hurdle is Dawalan’s battling victory at Ascot over 2m 4f on his last start.

That day he was outpaced and 5 lengths down three from home, but rallied gamely to get up close home to beat stable mate and 145 rated Bear’s Affair.

The extra furlong should suit and he gets a whole stone from Kilcooley who heads the weights.

Hello George ran a good race in the Ladbroke Hurdle, not beaten that far in 6th. He probably needs more of a test than the 2 miles he faced that day and he certainly gets it here.

He was tapped for toe in the Ladbroke but stayed on nicely to suggest the step up in trip may well suit.

He gets in off a light weight of 10st and that should see him competitive if he sees out the trip.

Saturday January 10th

Kempton 2.40 pm Dawalan 8/1 and Hello George 8/1 (1pt e/w ¼ odds, 4 places)

A Value Bet Explained

Before I hand over to Kieran for part two of his Value Betting series of articles I just want to mention Racing Dossier.

If you downloaded the free Racing Dossier software then today you can get the first system to use with the software.

This system made 171 points profit in 2012, 15 points so far in 2013 and has a 29% strike rate.

You can download it here – Click Here
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Today’s article has been written by Kieran Ward, professional gambler, tipster and betting blogger over at www.makeyourbettingpay.co.uk
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“We have found value on a bet when we secure a price that exceeds the true probability of that outcome occurring.”

Let’s look at a very simple event to demonstrate the principle:

We are betting on a coin toss. There are two possible outcomes of a coin toss: heads comes up or tails comes up. Either of those is equally likely to occur on any one coin toss, therefore the probability for either one is 50%.

A probability of 50% expressed in fractional odds is 1/1 or even money. In decimal odds that same probability would be expressed as 2.0.

If you were to take those odds about either event occurring in a coin toss, in the long run you would break even, neither making or losing money (though in the short term you could easily come unstuck due to general variance).

In other words, at odds of even money you have no edge – and are therefore receiving no value.

Even worse than that, a bookmaker would price up either event at 10/11 (1.91) to lock in his profit margin (known as their over-round).

On average we would achieve the following results backing heads at 10/11 (1.91) for £1 a time over 1000 bets:

500 winners: +£455
500 losers: -£500
Overall P/L: -£45

Clearly not a course of action we would want to pursue!

Conversely, if we managed to find a bookmaker prepared to offer 2.1 (11/10) about either outcome in a coin toss on average we would achieve the following results:

500 winners: + £550
500 losers: – £500
Overall P/L: + £50

Much better! The second set were value bets – we were getting a price that exceeded the true probability of the event occurring! We would be very foolish not to avail ourselves of that price, repeatedly and to the largest stakes we could afford (while applying sound money management principles, of course).

Unfortunately, we are unlikely to find any bookmaker offering 11/10 about a fixed probability event such as heads coming up in a coin toss. The true probability is fixed and therefore easily calculated. (If anybody ever does find such a bookmaker, please introduce me!).

Luckily, this is not the case for all events a punter might want to assess.

Tomorrow, I will be looking at some more complex events that are much more difficult for bookmakers to price accurately – and consequently offer us far greater opportunities for finding value!

Today's Selection

4.05 Lingfield Lady Mango – each way bet – 15/2 Bet 365

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