Tag Archives: healthy strike rate

Hamilton Trainer Trends

Today we have an article from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders where he looks at the Hamilton trainers for tonights meeting.

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Hamilton Trainer Trends

At first glance Keith Dalgleish does not appear to be a trainer to follow at Hamilton, despite a highly respectable strike rate of 14.95% in the last 5 years.

Backing all of his 194 runners at the track since 2010 would have resulted in an overall loss of £21.34 to £1 level stakes. However, if we focus solely on his runners in non-handicap races then we see a different story altogether.

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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The record of his runners in non-handicap races is not only highly impressive but they are highly profitable too with a 25% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate.

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

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His last 5 runners at the track in non-handicap races have finished 31121 at prices of 20/1, 7/1, 5/2, 50/1 and 9/4. On Friday he has the following entries in non-handicap races:

6.40pm Sir Acclam & Battleranger in the 6f maiden

Battleranger ran 2nd to an odds-on Mark Johnston fancy at the track last time out. That was only his second start and he outran his odds of 50/1 by some way. Sir Acclam was last of 9 on his sole start at Ayr.

Another trainer with a great record at Hamilton is Kevin Ryan. Since 2010 his runners at the course show a level stakes profit of £27.78 and a healthy strike rate of 23.33%.

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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His 3yo runners do particularly well.

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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He has the following entries on Friday:

7.40pm Hopes N Dreams & Blaine in the 6f class 2 handicap
8.45pm Keep To The Beat (3yo) in the 1m 3f handicap

Hopes N Dream absolutely loves it around Hamilton. The 6yo has course figures of 111711111. That’s 8 wins from 9 visits to the course including a last time out C&D win over useful yardstick Tangerine Trees.

Blaine is also entered in the same race but this former Gimcrack winner is a riskier betting proposition. He has failed to live up to expectations after winning his maiden and the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes as a 2yo.

Once rated 107 his mark has tumbled to 96 and he unseated his rider last time out. He is undoubtedly talented as shown on his one good run this year when 3rd of 20 in a good handicap at York behind Aetna and Baccarat.

It may be he saves his best for York (form figures 113) but it would be folly to dismiss his chances out of hand here. Keep To The Beat is still a maiden after 9 starts but ran his best race last time out when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 14 at Beverley. He stepped up from a mile to 10f that day and the extra furlong may well suit.

Our final trainer to follow at Hamilton is Mrs Marjorie Fife. Her record with her runners at the course speaks for itself:

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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She is 2-2 this season at Hamilton and both those victorious horses return to the track on Friday.

7.10pm Mandalay King in the 6f handicap
9.10pm Camerooney in the 1m 1f handicap

Mandalay King is a 9yo now but he is still competitive at his given level. His overall course figures are 1723172241581. All four of his victories have come at class 5 or lower and he goes in the 6f class 5 handicap on Friday evening.

Camerooney is even older at 11 but he is another who loves it around Hamilton with two wins and a third place finish from three starts. Shirley Teasdale is booked to ride both and takes off a useful 5lbs which should see both horses competitive.

Finally, don’t forget we have previously highlighted (and profited from) Tom Dascombe’s runners at Haydock and the Godolphin 2yo runners at Newmarket trained by Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor. Both courses have meetings this Friday and Saturday so be sure to keep an eye out for their runners over the next two days.

Chester Tips

Chester Race CourseYou probably noticed that yesterday's selection came from the Amateur Jockey system and it gave another win for Serena Brotherton 🙂

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders and Nick gives us some pointers for the Chester meeting which kicks off today.

Chester Tips

Affectionately known as The Roodee, Chester racecourse is a flat left handed course with tight bends.

One circuit of the course is just over 1 mile in distance.  Horses are constantly on the turn and with such a short run in off the final bend it is very difficult for horses to win coming from off the pace.

Front runners and horses that race prominently are those that typically do well here.  It takes a particular kind of a horse to win here, a jockey who knows how to ride here and also a trainer who knows the type off horse to be suited by the tight turns of the track.

One trainer who has an excellent recent record at Chester is Roger Varian.  In the past 3 seasons he has sent out 5 winners from 18 runners at the course to a level stakes profit of £16.20.

Roger Varian – Chester runners 2012 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

18

5

28

6

33

+16.20

 

However, if we dig a little deeper we can see that it pays to follow his 3yo runners in particular at Chester:

Roger Varian – 3yo Chester runners 2012 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

13

5

38

6

46

+21.20

 

On Friday evening he runs a 3yo by the name of Tears Of The Sun in 1m 2f fillies handicap (7.20pm).  A winner last time out, she is up 6lb and has a handy draw in stall 2.

She is Roger Varian’s sole runner at the course on Friday and looks sure to go well.

Since 2010, Mark Johnston has notched up 35 winners at the course from 224 runners at a strike rate of 16%.  However, he is just 2-23 this season with his horses at the Roodee.

No-one rides Chester better than Franny Norton and when he teams up with Mark
Johnston they form a potent partnership.

Since 2010 they are 13-63 at a strike rate of 21%.  This season though they are 1-10.  The Johnston/ Norton combo teams up with Disavow (6.20pm),  Alpine Storm (6.50pm),  Maracuja (7.20pm) and Crafted (9.00pm).

Crafted is the most interesting over 7 ½ furlongs, a trip that has seen the Johnston/ Norton combination bag 3 wins from 7 runners since 2010 for a healthy strike rate of 43% and a level stakes profit of £16.33.

Richard Fahey is a trainer who sends a lot of horses to Chester and it is his 2yo runners in non-handicaps who are worth noting.

They are 11-39 for a level stakes profit of £22.24 at a healthy strike rate of 28% since 2010.  Twenty-two of those runners hit the places and each-way backers would have increased their level stakes profit to £43.63.

Richard Fahey – 2yo non-handicap races Chester 2010 – 2014

Runs

Wins

% win

Place

% place

P/L (£1 win)

P/L (e/w)

39

11

28

23

59

+22.24

+43.63

 

On Friday he runs 2yo filly Super Quick in the 7f maiden (6.20pm) and she looks to have a cracking chance.

 

Pro Football Gamblers – Outrights

Before we get into today's article from Pro Football Gambler Goran Trpevski I just wanted to ket you know that there are still places with The Form Man service and more excitingly they made 37 points yesterday, that's all at level stakes.

Click Here to secure a place

Goran Trpevski is a former professional footballer who has his own well established tipping service. It is again in profit this season.

Goran's service offers traditional pre kick off bets and also the opportunity to follow along in play making the same bets that Goran makes.

Goran is offering a heavily discounted trial of his full service for Daily Punt readers and you can find details of that here.

With my service the majority of my bets are around the 2.0 (evens mark) which means we have a healthy strike rate and no long losing runs.

I also like to invest a lot of money on outright bets such as seasonal outcomes as I look on it as free money if you have an eye to spot the opportunity. Earlier this season I saw a great example and told my members.

The bet was Juventus to win Serie A each way and we invested 3 units on each (1/3 odds top 2) so 6 in total at 2.50 (6/4).

Why did we go each way? Well if we win we win on the equivalent of a 2.00 price (6 points profit) and if Juventus finish second we stand to lose just 25% of our stake. If they finish third we lose our entire stake but in my opinion that was not going to happen.

Opening prices on Juve were 2.62 for the title in Italy but there was a lot going on pre-season and the prices started to fall. It’s a fact that the squad of players at Juve got better by some 15-20% and their rivals got worse.

How? This was how I described it to my members…

Lucio, Asamoah. Giovinco and Isla were signed. Out of these four Isla is World class in his position. Mind you they already had good players in his position.

Giovinco will fight with Gacherini for a starting place and sometimes they will play Vucinic in that position. Vucinic is one of Conte’s untouchables. You see Juve have tons of players and even though Lucio is a very good defender who will he take out from that backline?

What’s even funnier is that the names that are mentioned in the papers about who else they want to sign. Juve’s situation is clear. They will be a very serious side and not just by Italian standards.

What of the competition. Well Inter and Moratti will save money and the team they will put out to take on the Calcio this season will be close to a joke. They will have a tough and long season and if Inter win the league it will because Juve lost it themselves. Their position will be third or fourth and Napoli is a more serious side then Inter this season actually.

AC Milan? When I said some years ago that Milan are a spent force lacking in funds people did not want to listen. Then all the transfers out started such as Shevcenko and Kaka and now the latest Silva and Ibrahimovic.

Milan without these two players are how much worse? 40%? Well it’s up for debate. Milan will take 1-2 players but for them to challenge this Juve side, well it will take a lot for that to happen.

Juve’s prices today can’t be above 2.10. No way. In reality they have no rivals once Ibrahimovic signs for PSG. Absolute worst case is that they come second and for us that means we lose 1.5 units out of a total of 6 invested, which in a situation like this is nothing. Invest now as this is a super play at these prices.

So that was what I thought and the value was too good to miss. Take a look now at the prices and we are only 12 games into the season. Juve are top 4 points ahead of Inter and 5 ahead of Napoli. AC Milan are in 13th place and 17 points behind. The best price you can get at the moment on Juve to win the title is 1.4.

I could see what was going to happen in the league early enough to get the good prices and great value.

Maybe some people don’t want to tie up so much money long term but the value was massive and I could not turn it down.

When some punters look for value they want an 8/1 chance that is priced up at 16/1. You won’t get bets like that with my service but you will have access to amazing value with bets like:-

Chelsea to win the league without the 2 Manchester clubs at 2.2 and now you can’t get bigger than 1.29.

PSV to win the Eredivisie at 4.0 and we went in again each way at 3.25 units. The best price now is 1.73.

Atletico Madrid to finish in the top 4 in Spain we took at 1.83. Best price now is 1.05.

The start of the season can be an excellent time for outrights but I keep looking for value throughout the season and if I see some more gems our members will be getting them.

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Goran has a bet tonight in the Valencia Vs Bayern Munich game.

The bet is Bayern Munich to win (draw no bet), this was given out yesterday when the price was 1.63, the price is now 1.599 with Pinnacle.

With a draw no bet, bet if the game ends in a draw you will get your money back.

Here's Goran's assessment of the match…

Before the season I warned you guys that with Valencia we had no guarantees this season.

Yes they can finish third again, but they can also finish something like 8th.

Why? Because Emery left and with Emery alot of things left as well.

In came Pellegrino and we knew nothing about him. Well as a player we knew,but as a coach nothing at all.

Being as assistant coach doesn’t count of course as setting up cones and taking notes is not the same as being in charge.

Valencia so far? Pretty much where I expected them to be, win some suffer some.

Mestalla is a very tough place to manage (Benitez won two league titles and still was not liked) Emery left after coming third twice and still was not liked.

First game in Bayern and it was total domination for the Bavarians.

Score 2-1 is a big lie as it was closer to 4-0 then 2-1 that I can tell you.

Valencia did not come to play and that’s a negative.

This game at the Mestalla can be a decider about who wins this group. Coming second and you are in for a tougher draw later on. One thing getting Celtic another thing getting Barca.

Bayern won’t lose in Spain. They will dictate the tempo of the game, they will control the match and they should not lose in this one.

Tactics match up and we see two teams playing in a similiar way. Both use one central striker (Mandjukic/Pizzaro v Soldado) Both use the wings alot when attacking but with different characteristics.

Valencia use a left footer on the left (Guardado) and right foot on the right (Fegholi). While Bayern have #wrong foot# on the wings most of the time Ribery left and Robben (out though and replaced by Shakiri in this game) on the right.

Bayern should not lose this game and I see them winning in the end.

Today's Racing Selection

Folkestone 12.40 Floral Spinner – win bet

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