Tag Archives: Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com

Create your own speed ratings

Over the last few years I have created a number of different ratings for our own use and clients but these have all be form related.

So I guess it was only a matter of time before the question of speed ratings came up.

Some people argue that speed is the only real way to judge a horses chance of winning a race…

But as with all things racing, it is never quite that simple.

Speed of course is related to distance.

It is the time it took the horse to run the race divided by the distance that gives us the speed at which the horse travelled.

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Place Ratings

Today we have our regular Wednesday column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Using ratings to find selections to place

I was never really interested in the place market on Betfair until recently.
But while working on a new ratings system I noticed a trend that got my attention.

Lately I have got very interested in high strike rate systems that normally select runners that are ranked 1st to 3rd in the betting.

Admittedly these are not the easiest systems to make money with but they can be a little more interesting to follow than your average “One a day” wait for a winner type system.

I am not knocking this type of system as I run many of them myself. I am just saying that sometimes it’s nice to have a few more selections that seem to win very often.

Over the last year or so I have been creating quite a few rating figures based on different ideas and I have shared some of these with Grey Horse Bot users.

The idea of creating any ratings is to help you identify potential winners but I think “help” is the key word…

…They can be useful in helping you to narrow down the field and letting you concentrate on just a few selections in each race.

In my last couple of articles I have mentioned that I was concentrating on the top 3 in the betting as ranked by the BSP prices early in the morning and I wanted to carry on with that idea.

I tend to try and make it a little easier on myself like sticking to “Handicap” races only as I have in this case.

As a programmer with quite a large database of results and information to use I am lucky in the sense that I can come up with ideas and then test them quite quickly.

But you should never forget the fact that humans are very good at noticing patterns.

I make sure I spend a great deal of time just looking at my ratings within the context of a lot of other racing information, just to see if I notice something that I may not have seen just by looking at individual numbers.

And this is what I was doing while looking at my latest ratings.

It appeared that the selections that I had been highlighting (I use yellow normally) to show me strong selections (although were not winning all the time) did appear to place.

Of course nothing is ever that simple and the next thing was to discover if I could come up with a way of identifying enough winning selections to make money.
And that’s where I am at the moment.

I have a list of daily selections and I have to decide which ones I am going to place.

With a couple of rules I am able to either discount the race entirely or select just one runner to follow.

If you would like to see the daily selections and the ideas I have come up with then pop over here for a look. Click Here

You can look back to the beginning of this month at the moment to see if you can find anything yourself.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

12:35:00 Fairyhouse Digeanta – eachway bet 6/1 Bet Victor, Bet 365

Automated Betting

Today we have a new article from Malcolm Pett the creator of the Grey Horse Bot.

To find out more about the GreyHorse Bot visit Malcolm website here http://greyhorsebot.com
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Knowing when to say enough is enough…

One of the reasons I originally created the Grey Horse Bot is that it allowed me to automatically stop betting.

And it also stopped me chasing loses.

I started in the early days with greyhound racing (that’s where the “Grey” comes from) and I followed a “Stop at a winner” system.

The problem I had was that even after that first win I couldn’t help myself starting again.

There were so many Greyhound races everyday that if I won early, it was just too tempting not to try again.

Of course you know what happened next…

…I couldn’t get a winner.

This led to the second problem of not knowing when to cut my losses.

Creating the Grey Horse Bot allowed me to “set and forget” knowing full well the bot would either stop as soon as it got a winner or if I hit my stop loss.

The other problem with Greyhound racing is that Bags races happen every 10 minutes and it is so easy to miss a race when the phone rang or you start chatting to someone.

Even reading an email can be enough to take your attention away from the racing just long enough to miss a race.

Having the Grey Horse Bot do everything for me just made life a lot easier.
The next step was to run the bot on a VPS or server that was permanently attached to the internet at all times.

This meant I didn’t even have to think about the bot, day to day.
Our longest running test was over 6 month’s non-stop. It would have been longer except the server had to be reset for an important update.

Testing is a very important part of my day to day betting activity and although I am a great believer in “paper” testing and would suggest you always do this…
(The Grey Horse Bot does paper test as well.)

…It’s not until you actually bet live when you find out if the selections your following are going to produce a profit.

I think this is where automated betting comes into its own.

Having the ability to set aside part of your bank just for these selections and set a stake that is smaller than you would normally have to use, all helps in the testing process.

Here is an example.

In last week’s article I introduced a new test for a simple system I came up with using 2nd ranked runners based on the BSP early morning prices.

Here is the article.
http://dailypunt.com/one-winner-per-day/

So I set up a Grey Horse Bot on one of our servers and set aside a £10 bank for the test.

I like to use a % of bank as my start test stake.

This may not work well with all systems but I find it a good place to start.
And if the test goes well then your stake should naturally increases but if not, your stake drops.

If I know the strike rate of my system I normally work out the Longest Losing Run expected statistically, add a little and use the figure as my stop loss.

If not…I normally set it at an equivalent of around 20 to 30 points.

Your have to decide what’s best for you.

Once that’s done then all I have to is click “start” and let the bot do the rest.
The Grey Horse Bot can automatically download selections based on your own criteria or using the special links that are often given to our members when we start a new test.

The link contains a live feed that the bot checks every so often and if it finds new selections it automatically adds them ready to monitor.

There is a link in the member’s area for the test from last week’s article.

I love automation and it doesn’t get any better than this.

But best of all I no longer have to worry about missing races or stopping when I should, it is all done automatically.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm


The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:00 Bangor Clondaw Kaempfer – eachway bet 15/2 Bet Victor

Strike Rate Vs Odds

Today we have a guest post from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

As you are probably well aware making money from gambling is about 2 things…
Strike rate and Average winning odds.

As strike rate goes up average winning odds can come down.

You tend to end up with two choices.

Low strike rate but high odds winners. This probably represents the real value end of the scale where you are picking runners that most people think have very little chance of winning.

Most of the time they are correct but every so often one comes in…

And normally at a very good price.

The strike rate of these systems is generally between 10 and 20%.

If you run a system like this then it’s probably better to use Betfair because the odds on outsiders can often be far better than you will find at the bookies.

Look out for long losing runs because these normally spell disaster for the un-aware punter.

Then we have the high strike rate but low odds end of the spectrum.

Here you are likely to be on the first or second favourite and value is going to be a real issue.

Strike rate should be in the high 30’s but even better if you can get to 40% or more.

Keeping an eye on your average winning odds is going to be critical and you will probably have to watch the exchanges and the bookies or even use a BOG bookie to get the best prices.

Your job here will probably be to match or beat SP as often as you can.

The perfect scenario would be somewhere in between the two but it is unlikely you will find one system that will have a reasonable strike rate with value bets.

Probably the best way to achieve this would be to use “Nano” systems.

On their own these types of systems have very few selections but tend to have strike rates of 20% or more.

Combining a number of them together means you have a better chance of getting a reasonable strike rate and achieving value.

It does mean you have more systems to follow but the long term profit could be worth the effort.

Over at the Grey Horse Bot website we test all these ideas.

At the moment we have a couple of tests looking to achieve strike rates of 40% and 50%.

As already discussed you will find the prices on the winners can be quite short but it can be surprising when you get the odd higher priced winner.

We are also running long term tests on system that have a much lower strike rate.
And you can see very clearly from the results that these types of systems have long losing runs and often only get into profit because of big priced winning selections.

When you decide on what type of system(s) to follow you have to ask yourself can you take the losing runs or are you prepared to look for the best price.

Otherwise a bunch of “Nano” systems may be the best thing for you.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcom Pett is the creator of the Grey Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

6.45 Kempton Gibeon – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365

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