Tag Archives: Hurdles races

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

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Nick Hardman Tips

Anybody that followed our Friday Nick Hardman columns in 2014 will have made plenty of profit from the selections posted.

2015 has already got off to a great start and today Nick has selections at Huntingdon and Doncaster and selections for tomorrows Lanzarote…

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We had a great start to 2015 with 3 winners from our 5 AW selections in addition to L’Ami Serge winning comfortably and Triolo D’Alene grabbing some place money @16/1 under a brilliant ride by Barry Geraghty on Saturday.

This week we turn our attention to the Friday cards at Huntingdon and Doncaster and we have a couple of selections for the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday.

Nicky Henderson has a 44% strike rate at Huntingdon in the last 2 years. In that time he has sent out 15 winners from 34 runners. 9 of those winners were in hurdles races and he is 3-4 in maiden hurdles at the course.

Today he has a couple of qualifiers who are pretty much unknown quantities.

Huntingdon 1.20pm Maestro Royale
Huntingdon 2.30pm Hel Tara

Nicky Henderson also does well at Doncaster with his hurdlers. In the last two years his hurdlers at the course are 15-37 (41% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of £37.46.

His handicap hurdlers have a lower strike rate (31%) but tend to pop up at decent prices with his last 4 handicap hurdle winners at the course returning industry SPs of 16/1, 15/2, 8/1 and 8/1. He has a trio of hurdle runners today.

Doncaster 12.30pm Saint Charles (Maiden hurdle)
Doncaster 1.35pm Nicolas Chauvin (Novice hurdle)
Doncaster 3.15pm Earth Amber (Handicap hurdle)

The Lanzarote Hurdle is one of the feature races on Saturday and I like the look of Dawalan and Hello George who are both backable each-way at 8/1.

Dawalan represents the Henderson/ Geraghty combination.

Back in November he got to within half a length of Sign Of A Victory over 2 miles and the latter is now rated 149 over hurdles having been last seen in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.

Dawalan also had the re-opposing Kilcooley 16 lengths behind that day and that horse has gone on and franked that form (2nd to L’Ami Serge and 23 length winner at Haydock on his next two starts).

What is more significant though in the context of the Lanzarote hurdle is Dawalan’s battling victory at Ascot over 2m 4f on his last start.

That day he was outpaced and 5 lengths down three from home, but rallied gamely to get up close home to beat stable mate and 145 rated Bear’s Affair.

The extra furlong should suit and he gets a whole stone from Kilcooley who heads the weights.

Hello George ran a good race in the Ladbroke Hurdle, not beaten that far in 6th. He probably needs more of a test than the 2 miles he faced that day and he certainly gets it here.

He was tapped for toe in the Ladbroke but stayed on nicely to suggest the step up in trip may well suit.

He gets in off a light weight of 10st and that should see him competitive if he sees out the trip.

Saturday January 10th

Kempton 2.40 pm Dawalan 8/1 and Hello George 8/1 (1pt e/w ¼ odds, 4 places)

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Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends

I've been going on about Mark Foley's race profiles for days now and I wish I could share them all with you, but I cant.

What I do have is his Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends and his selection 🙂

1.30pm – Supreme Novices Hurdle – Grade 1 – 2m
Montbazon 8/1 with William Hill.

Don’t look for a shock, the market has been a pretty good guide with all of the winners in the past 15 years coming from the first 6 in the market; having said that the favourites somewhat puzzlingly had a poor record.

Runners aged Five and six have dominated, also runners rated less than 136 don’t look classy enough to win this; along the same lines every winner since 1997 had won at least one of their last 3 races and being a championship race they invariably won LTO.

Experience counts and every winner during the past 15 years had raced at least 6 times and all but one had the benefit of a run within the last 90 days to hone their fitness.

My shortlist using the above criteria is:

Steps to Freedom, Cinders and Ashes, Trifolium, Galileo’s Choice and Montbazon.

Trifolium would need to improve again to win this and all of his form is on Soft and Heavy ground. The going has often been Good to Soft on the opening day following the introduction of a watering policy a few years ago, but it looks like Good ground today. The fact that 11 of Trifolium’s 13 races have been run on Soft or Heavy ground is a huge concern, especially in such a high class race.

Cinders and Ashes, was a doubt for this race, as connections were considering sending him straight to Aintree, a course they feel will suit the horse better than Cheltenham. That fact alone is off putting and like Trifolium all the wins over obstacles have come on Soft or heavy ground. His only pattern win came in the Grade 2 Supreme trial at Haydock on heavy ground against only two rivals; the runner up has since been beaten by just under 40 lengths in the Totesport at Newbury. Cinders and Ashes faces a totally different quality of opposition today on a course that his connections feel may not suit him ideally and ground that may not suit.

There was a lot to like about the way Steps to Freedom won here in November and he could be a threat to Montbazon. However, the fact that he last raced over 120 days ago is a big concern. All but 2 of the winners in the past 15 years were returning from a break of less than 45 days and if we look at the record of runners returning from a break of more than 45 days during the same period only 2 of the 63 runners won. It’s hardly as if they were out with the washing either, 6 of them went off as favourites and they were all beaten. His last race was at Cheltenham in November and the horse he just beat, Prospect Wells has since had his limitations exposed at this level.

Darlan is the early favourite, but fell last time out and runners in Hurdles races at the festival who fell last time out have a poor record; his excellent trainer also has a surprisingly poor 0 from 18 record in this race.

This is a race for speedsters and runners from a NH background have dominated flat bred runners since the watering policy was introduced. The winner of this has invariably won a NHF race and also won a race in their career by an eye catching distance; Galileo’s Choice won a Group 3 on the flat in December and didn’t go down the bumper route. The better ground could swing it in his favour, but preference is for Montbazon, who is rated 144 and has won his last 2 races with ease and also won a NHF race, before finishing 2nd in the big Aintree bumper.
Alan King doesn’t enter a runner in this race unless he fancies its chances and Montbazon is only his 4th entrant; Irish trainers dominated this race a few years ago but English based trainers have won the last 2 and 4 of the last 7 renewals and King is very bullish about his chances.

Selection: Montbazon
Danger: Galileo’s Choice

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Today’s Selection Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club

Twice Red 4.25 Southwell 1pt win @ 17`2 Bet Victor

It looks like there could be plenty of pace on with a few front runners in the line up. The selection will need that strong pace to run at with this drop to 5 furlongs, so things could just fall just right.

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More Each Way

Each Way Value Alternative EVAYesterday the favourite was withdrawn from the race that we highlighted as an each way value race.

I know a lot of readers realised that this meant that the selection no longer fitted the EVA rules and didnt bet.

For me I had to rush out on an urgent mission to help a stranded relative and placed the bet before I left and lost a little 🙁

Today there are two races worth looking at to help understand this method a bit more.

I'll look at the later one first because this is one I wont be betting and I want to explain why.

On first glance the Kempton 6.20 looks like a possible bet.

The favourite Miss Astragal is available at 10/11, we then have a second favourite at 11/2 (Palmyra) and the third favourite at 7/1 (Hill of Dreams).

We then jump up to 10/1. The reason I'm weary of this race is because it is a Maiden and although most of the horses have some form there are two with no previous form, including the second favourite and lots with only one or two previous starts.

This tells me that the race is hard to work out, which in turn tells me that the forecast prices cannot be accurate.

With the second favourite priced up on pedigree alone.

The better looking race is the Doncaster 1.10.

Here the prices go…

Tour D´argent 8/13, Parsnip Pete 11/4, Shockingtimes 9/1, An Capall Mor 33/1, Future Profit 66/1, The Goldmeister 40/1, Coral Cove 40/1, The Banana Man 50/1

Here the market tells us that only the first three in the betting have a chance with a big jump to the 33/1 fourth favourite, so it is better looking race straight away.

Now this is a Novice Hurdle and Shockingtimes has only point to point form previously, but has won on the soft and has beaten horses that have gone on to place in hurdles races.

Parsnip Pete is interesting from a value perspective and I think although Tour D'argent will likely win he is way overbet and offers no value.

Assuming all 8 run I will be having an eachway bet on Shockingtimes.

Todays Selection

Doncaster 1.10 Shockingtimes – eachway (No bet if less than 8 run)

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