Tag Archives: influence

Football and Racing Tips

I had a bet last night for today's Cheltenham meeting that demonstrates how far you can beat the market by following tipsters who do their own race assessments rather than waiting for markets to form and letting those markets influence their decisions.

At 5pm yesterday the Racing consultants sent their members a note telling them to get on a horse that was available at 8/1 and that on their assessment should be much shorter.

I had my little tenner on with Bet 365 and now the horse is 5/1 with Bet 365 and best priced 11/2.

This horse might lose, but to me it will be remembered as a good bet whether it wins or loses because it is my strong opinion that you should judge your bets by how much you beat starting price not by whether they win or lose.

This might sound crazy to some readers. But others will know that if you keep beating starting price by big margins that the profits will take care of themselves.

I'm going to give you the bet and the full assessment in a minute, but first I'd like to recommend that whether it wins or loses that if you are serious about winning that you join the Racing Consultants service.

These guys send out bets like this one on a regular basis and they beat the market.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

By the way they sent another one at 5.20, but I'm not allowed to give that one, but if you join them you can get immediate access.

Here's the race assessment and bet…

2.25 FREEBETS.COM TROPHY CHASE (2M5F)

“Little Jon impressed me enough as a hurdler last year despite his build and background suggesting he’d be much better over fences, and he proved the point at the first time of asking at Newton Abbot in October, giving weight and a beating to the Paul Nicholls-trained Solar Impulse.

That preceded a trio of runs in higher company here, and the bottom line is that the long-striding son of Pasternak hasn’t beaten another rival.

That said, he actually ran a cracker when a close third over 2m in November, and has crashed out when leading on his next two starts.

Despite those aberrations, he appeals as a pretty sound jumper, if inclined to take the occasional fence (or indeed wing) on.

The upside of his failures is that he’s not revealed the full extent of his ability, and therefore the handicapper hasn’t been as severe as he might have been, accepting that an opening mark of 140 is no gimme.

Main opposition comes primarily in the shape of Easter Day for Paul Nicholls, and he can’t be ruled out of calculations, for all his odds will be skinny enough.

More interesting at the forecast prices is Annacotty, who was second in the novice handicap on this card last year. He was another who couldn’t cope with the demands of the Hennessy first time out, but he’s reportedly been perked up by a spell hunting, and also has cheekpieces fitted, so should have no excuses.

He was a Grade 1 winner last year, and that fact shouldn’t be overlooked.

2.25 Chel – 2pts win Little Jon @ 8/1 (Bet365)”

As mentioned above current best price is 11/2 with Skybet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power

Football Perm

We had a win last week with The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Free Trial Here)
and this week I've gone with their home wins perm…

Top Rated ‘Best 6 Homes'
(Perm any 5 from 6 plus all 6 = 7 bets)
TOTTENHAM
NORWICH
WATFORD
WOLVES
MK DONS
BARNET
The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 6 Homes' are available with…

Coral

Favourites That Win

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorse Bot.

You can try the Grey Horse Bot including the systems creator for just £17, go to http://greyhorsebot.com

Here's Malcolm…

Favourites That Win

As you are probably already know the chances of a favourite winning a race is around 34%.

That figure can be influenced by other factors like race type and price and can drop to around 27% or rise to over 50%.

So why would I mention favourites?

We know there is no value in following them.

So what about if we look elsewhere?

What’s the win averages of the other runners?

2nd priced favourits win 20% of the time
3rd priced favourits win 14% of the time
3rd priced favourits win 10% of the time

Again this is based around all race types and all prices.

This means that nearly 80% of all winning horses come from one of the top 4 priced runners in a race.


”Yeah I know all this” I hear you say…

In my last Daily punt article I talked about what I call “Nano” systems.

This is where you look for specific types of races where you may be able to find profit.

So here is another example you may want to check out.

Using the SPB System Builder I found a trend based around 6 year old horses in class 6 running at Southwell.

If they have won at Southwell before at the exact (exact) distance they are running at again and they are favourite…then they have won 54 of the last 100 (qualifying) races resulting in a BSP profit of 37.46 points.

The system also appears to work at Kempton and Wolves but not to the same extent as it seems to at Southwell.

So although blindly following favourites is not a profitable pastime there are places you can find that appear to show a return.

Finding high strike profitable trends is interesting but as you can see you have to be pretty specific about the runners you choose.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

2.20 Yarmouth Spiriting – win bet – 9/4 Bet 365, Paddy Power

Sire System 61% ROI

There are many ways to approach racing and winning from betting and no best way.

But you are likely to be more profitable though if you use an approach that the majority don't use.

One such approach that the man in the street tends not to pay attention to, unless it is called out by somebody in the media is betting on the influence of the sire.

But characteristics and preferences are passed from father to foal and knowing the inbred preferences of a horse can help us find winners.

So today I have the results of some research into one such angle which will hopefully identify some winners for us over the coming weeks.

The sire we are looking at today is Teofilo(IRE).

What I've targeted today is the All Weather runners of the Teofilo progeny.

With any angle the most profit will come from runs made before the horse and it's ability is exposed so we are looking at 2 and 3 year olds in their first 5 runs.

The preferred distance is 7 furlongs or 1 mile.

And we are only betting on standard going which prevails 99% of the time.

So they are the rules and the results for the last 4 years, which is when we first started seeing qualifiers is…

Runs = 82

Wins = 18

Strike Rate = 21.95%

Profit at iSP = + 50.56

Return on Investment = 61.54%

Those figures jump up if we exclude the first year. Looking at just 2012 – 2014 then there is profit in each year with an ROI of 86.93%.

These breakdown to…

2012 ROI = 96%

2013 ROI = 78%

2014 ROI = 66%

Looking at the individual courses there has been no profit at Dundalk or Wolverhampton.

Most of the runs have been at southern tracks (Lingfield, Kempton) so it may be that rather than these runners having no preference for the northern tracks it may just be a case of where the majority of the progeny are based currently.

Do you follow any sire systems or use sire influences in your selection process, if so and you'd like to share them then please add a comment.

Today's Selection

Catterick 4.20 Georgian Firebird – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

 

Horse Racing First Run Stats

We've talked about this before, but this months What Really Wins Money is looking at how trainers perform with the first run for their charges.

When we last looked at this we looked at backing systems. WRWM looks at both backing and laying and laying is what I want to look at today.

The reason for this is that there are many trainers who either never or very rarely win with their horses on their first run.

It seems to me if a trainer doesnt expect to ever win on the first run then that mindset has an influence on the outcome and even if they have the best horse in the race that they are still unlikely to win if they have no expectation of winning.

Before I dive into Horse Race Base and research some numbers I want to mention that the figures I will be giving will be using industry starting prices. Horse Race Base doesnt have Betfair SP but can estimate what it will be, I'm not really comfortable with using estimates and would rather use industry SP and know that I need a loss of at least 20% for a lay system to even break even.

So the first thing I did was to look at all horses having their first ever run (2011,2012)

Runs = 17,716
Wins = 1,300
Strike Rate = 7.34%
Loss = -6182
ROI % = -34.9%

Maybe we should just lay them all?

But, from our previous articles we know that there are some trainers that do very well with their first starts, so lets at least exclude them.

If I look at all trainers with more than 25 1st time runs in 2011 & 2012 I find 56 that have a strike rate of over 10%, so I'm going to exclude those.

Which gives me the following figures

Runs = 5,702
Wins = 275
Strike Rate = 4.82%
Loss = -2470.68
ROI % = -43.33%

Looking at age of the horse, the majority of bets are 2 year olds, but the results are pretty much the same across the ages.

The results are also similar across National Hunt, All Weather and Turf, but with the majority of bets on the flat turf.

Looking at starting prices again the spread is pretty even although it might be worth concentrating towards the head of the market where the Betfair SP's will be closer to Industry SP, the loss looks similar although the strike rate is much higher.

What else should I look at, tell me in the comments 😉

The list of excluded trainers is at the bottom of this post.

Today's Selection 

8.40 Kempton Italian Riviera – each way bet – 11/1 Will Hill

 

 

Excluded Trainers

Mullins, W P, Henderson, N J, McCain Jnr, D , Longsdon, C E , Nicholls, P F, Greatrex, W J , Honeyball, A J , Barron, T D , Meade, Noel , Pipe, D E, McMahon, E S , Burke, Mrs K , George, T R , Russell, Miss Lucinda V , King, A , Ryan, K A , Suroor, Saeed Bin , Bailey, K C , Johnson, J Howard , Scott, J , Elliott, Gordon , Brown, D H , Al Zarooni, Mahmood , Hills, B W , Oxx, John M , OBrien, A P , Gosden, J H M , Grant, C , Hobbs, P J , Goldie, J S , Guest, Rae , Crawford, S R B , Sherwood, O, Varian, Roger , Beckett, R M, Curtis, Miss Rebecca, Noseda, J, Hannon, R, Bolger, J S, Hills, Charles, Lavelle, Miss E C, Fanshawe, J R, Johnston, M, TwistonDavies, N A, Quinn, J J, Channon, M R, Deegan, P D, OGrady, E J, Webber, P R, Botti, M, Fahey, R A, Vaughan, Tim, Evans, P D, Ewart, J P L, Haggas, W J , Wachman, David

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