Tag Archives: Interesting stuff

Pro Gambler Quotes

I've just been reading a series of interviews with successful pro gamblers and three key points stood out from the interviews. Today I want to share them with you and expand a little on them.

“Find a favourite that is too short and play against it” – Stephen Harris

This is a favorite method for a lot of layers, in fact the False Favourites method uses this methodology.

Basically this means look at short priced favourites and pick holes in their credentials. Find reasons why they cant win and why they shouldn't be the favourite. If you are a layer then once you have a false favourite you would then lay it. Stephen prefers to back to win and so his quote suggests that the next step is to find an alternative winner for the race, who will be at a value price because the favorite is false.

“Only bet when the price is wrong” – Kevin Pullein

This quote sort of follows on from the first, but more specifically what it is saying is don't ever bet if you think the odds are fair! There has to be an advantage to you IE the price must be bigger than the chance of the horse winning.

Using the old analogy, if you are betting on the coin toss you must get 11/10 at least.

“ROI for Show – ROC for Dough” Graeme Dand

I've written about Return on Capital recently, but to reiterate all our betting is restricted by how much money we have available to invest. If we can make best use of that money by turning it over frequently on low risk low return bets we will make more profit than having to have smaller bets because we need to hold a big bank for longer losing runs.

Interesting stuff I hope you'll agree. Although the key factors for betting success are pretty well known I never tire of being reminded and being prompted to think again about my own betting.

You can get the full interviews as a freebie from the Secret Betting ClubClick Here.

Today's Selection

1.20 Ascot Mentallist – win bet 3/1 Hills

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Alan Potts: Pro Gambler

When I first started gambling seriously one of the key writers that I paid attention to was Alan Potts.

He was the author of a book called Against the Crowd. The main idea in this book was, as the title suggests, look at what the majority are betting on and find value in opposing them.

So finding value was his key message and bigger priced selections were his staple bet.

So I was interested to read this quote from an interview with Alan…

‘Now, I've given up the high-stakes single win, mostly because I could no longer find the value, such has been the impact of the exchanges and the limitless supply of information available to punter'

He goes on to say that he backs and lays with 30% backing 70% laying…

‘I work almost exclusively with short-priced horses on betfair, because that's where the liquidity is greatest and that's where an edge can still be found'

Alan claims that he turns over £750,000 per year and makes about 4% after commission.

So that's all interesting but what we want is a tip on how to improve our own betting and this final quote got my little grey cells twitching…

I'm constantly looking for horses of interest next time and for patterns in the racing that might indicate any bias at the track.

I have a method of splitting big field results by draw to see if any horse stands out.

Eg. in a 16 runner race , look at the horses drawn 1 – 8 as if it was a separate race. If one horse from that group beat the other seven by a wide margin, he's almost certainly run better than the bare result of the overall race suggests.

Interesting stuff?


Quotes were taken from The Thoughts and Secrets of Successful Punters

Today's Selection

Haydock 3.30 Marford Missile – each way bet

 

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