Tag Archives: iSP

Tongue Tie Research

You'll remember that last week I mentioned the Geegeez article that talked about the use of tongue ties and how a horse needs a few runs with a tongue tie before they will let them self go.

The theory being that the horse still thinks that it's tongue will get in the way and is worried it won't be able to breathe and so doesnt give all.

But after a few runs with a tongue tie it starts to realise that it doenst have tongue problems anymore.

So I've been doing some research.

First off some facts. All horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time in 2013 & 2014 produces the following big losses.

Runs = 3959
Wins = 319
Strike Rate = 8.06%
Loss at iSP = -1335.24
ROI = – 33.73%

So it seems that wearing a tongue tie for the first time is a negative factor and the losing ROI is such that maybe it has the makings of a lay system.

Then it occurred to me that the reason that the horse doesnt perform well first time out with the tie is because it is still worried about a previous experience with breathing and doesn't realise it will be ok with the tie.

But surely there are some trainers that use the tie at home and get the horse used to it and trusting it before they ever go racing with the tie on and that maybe there are trainers that win first time-out with a tongue tie.

So I had a search for trainers who are profitable with first time tongue tie wearers.

And I found some.

For example Rebecca Curtis had 22 starts over the two year period that ran with a tongue tie for the first time.

Seven of those won for a 32% strike rate and they made an industry SP profit of 5.86 which is a 27% ROI.

Charlie Longsdon had 32 starts and 8 wins and an industry SP profit of 20.3. Which is a strike rate of 25% and an ROI of 63%.

I've selected the best performers from 2013/14 and checked their 2015 performance and a good profit has been made so I'm going to run this as a system live for a while and see if we have something worth following long term.

Today's Selection

2.30 Wolverhampton Kalimantan – win bet – 11/8 Bet 365, Paddy Power

Headgear Racing System

So last week I told you about an article over at Geegeez that put forward the idea of backing Paul Nichols runners who wear headgear for the first time.

So today I have done some research and investigated all the trainers who have been profitable in the past with their runners who were wearing headgear for the first time.

I'm looking at National Hunt only and am looking at horses who are wearing cheekpieces, blinkers or a hood for the first time.

Along the way I discovered a system with a 10,000% ROI!

Ok, I spotted a trainer who in 2014 only had one runner (Viking Rebel) who wore headgear for the first time and that runner won at 100/1.

Although that would make any system look like a winner I have not included it in my system below.

What I have got is a long list of trainers who had at least 10 runners wearing headgear for the first time from January 1st 2013 through to December 31st 2014 and who made a good profit at iSP with those runners.

Runs = 767
Wins = 127
Strike Rate = 16.56%
Profit at industry SP = 405.23
ROI = 52.83%

All the research was done on the data from 2013 and 2014 and if I run that system on 2015 so far it has already made 42 points profit in 2015.

But, here's the thing!

You could've backed every horse that wore headgear for the first time so far this year and made a profit.

I'm going to monitor this for a while and share any bets that come up on this page and then decide what to do with it once we have some live results.

There's no National Hunt racing today.

Today's Selection

3:10 Wolverhampton – Don't Be – win bet – 10/11 Paddy Power

Odds on Jockey System

At the start of the flat season we put together two systems for finding odds on shots that were more likely to win.

Basically all we did was to look at jockeys that made a profit when following all their short priced rides and for trainers that made a profit with their short priced charges.

At the end of the turf season both systems had enjoyed a high strike rate and a return of investment in the 5 – 8% range.

Not outstanding but good enough for punters who can't tolerate long losing runs.

So I figured we should do the same for the All Weather.

Today the Jockeys.

Back the rides of these jockeys when they start at 6/4 or shorter.

Buick, William Crowley, Jim
Doyle, James Fallon, K
Havlin, Robert Hayes, C D
Hughes, Richard Keniry, L P
Lee, G Moore, Ryan
Morris, Luke Mullen, Andrew
OBrien, J P Probert, David
Queally, T P Spencer, Jamie
Winston, Robert

 

The 2014 results for this group are as follows…

Runs = 388
Wins = 225
Strike Rate = 57.99%
Profit at iSP = 48.26
Return on Investment = 12.4%

Today's Selection
2:40 Taunton Money For Nothing – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365

System Selections

Hopefully you had a good Christmas and hopefully you were on Nick Hardman's selections for the King George and the Welsh National.

In the King George Nick gave

King George VI Chase:

Selection: Silviniaco Conti @5/2
Each-way alternative: Dynaste @8/1

Who finished first and second.

And for the Welsh National Nick gave

Welsh National trends horses:

Global Power @25/1
Emperor’s Choice @25/1
Amigo @14/1

Emperor’s Choice won with an SP of 8/1.

You can get more of Nick's insights at http://bettinginsiders.com

Onto today and a short post.

We only have Newbury racing today in the UK with Southwell and Kelso lost to the weather.

But two of our newest systems that have got off to a good start have selections at Newbury.

The Nicky Henderson Debutants system, which has had 5 wins from 12 runs since we created it and has a 118% ROI at iSP, has…

12:30 Newbury Top Notch – 10/11 Bet365, Bet victor

And the Nico de Boinville system which has only had two bets since we created it, but with one won at 7/1 has…

15:50 Newbury Laurium – 13/2 Sporting Bet

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