Tag Archives: jockeys

Odds On National Hunt Trainers System

Carrying on from yesterdays National Hunt Jockeys system today we have our Odds On National Hunt Trainers System.

The rules are simply to back the charges of the trainers listed below when they run in a National Hunt race in October to March, where they start at 6/4 or shorter.

The results for 2014 were as follows…

Runs = 398
Wins = 249
Strike Rate = 62%
Profit at industry SP =69.79
Return on Investment = 17.53%

The Trainers to follow are…

Trainer Data
Trainer
Bailey, K C Bromhead, Henry De
Elliott, Gordon Ferguson, J P
Fry, Harry Hobbs, P J
King, A King, N B
Longsdon, C E McCain Jnr, D
Meade, Noel Newland, Dr R D P
Quinn, J J Richards, N G
Skelton, Daniel Twiston-Davies, N A
Vaughan, Tim Williams, Evan

 

There is a qualifier today

12:35 Wetherby Devilment – win bet – 1/2 Paddy Power

Odds On National Hunt Jockeys

Our odds on All Weather jockeys that we posted last week are nicely in profit, with the trainers showing a small loss, of less than one point.

Early days yet for those and time will tell if they do as well as the flat odds on jockeys and trainers.

Today carrying on the theme I have an Odds On National Hunt Jockeys system for you.

The rules for these are to follow them only during the main National Hunt season from October to March and to back them when their ride starts at 6/4 or shorter.

The results for 2014, which will be the end of one season and the beginning of the current season were as follows…

Runs = 330
Wins = 199
Strike Rate = 60%
Profit at industry SP =42.29
Return on Investment = 12.82%

The jockeys to follow are…

Jockey Data
Jockey
Byrne, Michael Cooper, Bryan J
Hutchinson, Wayne Johnson, Richard
Maguire, Jason Moloney, Paul
Mullins, Mr P W ORegan, Denis
Renwick, Wilson Reveley, James
Scholfield, Nick Skelton, Harry
Walsh, M P Whelan, Trevor

 

Today's Selection

4:20 Exeter Nitrogen – win bet – 11/10 Bet Victor, Bet365

Odds on Jockey System

At the start of the flat season we put together two systems for finding odds on shots that were more likely to win.

Basically all we did was to look at jockeys that made a profit when following all their short priced rides and for trainers that made a profit with their short priced charges.

At the end of the turf season both systems had enjoyed a high strike rate and a return of investment in the 5 – 8% range.

Not outstanding but good enough for punters who can't tolerate long losing runs.

So I figured we should do the same for the All Weather.

Today the Jockeys.

Back the rides of these jockeys when they start at 6/4 or shorter.

Buick, William Crowley, Jim
Doyle, James Fallon, K
Havlin, Robert Hayes, C D
Hughes, Richard Keniry, L P
Lee, G Moore, Ryan
Morris, Luke Mullen, Andrew
OBrien, J P Probert, David
Queally, T P Spencer, Jamie
Winston, Robert

 

The 2014 results for this group are as follows…

Runs = 388
Wins = 225
Strike Rate = 57.99%
Profit at iSP = 48.26
Return on Investment = 12.4%

Today's Selection
2:40 Taunton Money For Nothing – win bet – 2/1 Bet 365

Grand National Tip :-o

Can I have more please? More Nick Hardman incites.

Yes it's Friday and this week Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) has an improvement to yesterday's Southwell system, an ante post bet for the Grand National and an angle and selections for today's Cheltenham meeting.
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Yesterday we gave you a nice system for Keith Dalgleish’s handicap runners at Southwell. I was playing around with Horse Race Base and I found that we can improve on his already excellent performance at the Midlands track with a system that has a 50% strike rate in the last two years.

Using HRB I found that all bar one of his 19 winners at Southwell were in races at distances between 7f and 2m (his runners are 1-12 over 5f and 6f showing a loss of -£5.50).

In addition I found that Dalgleish has used 15 different jockeys for those 72 rides at Southwell. All the winners have been ridden by just three jockeys:

If we concentrate on 2013 and 2014 then we come up with a system showing a 50% strike rate in the last two years:

Rules: Keith Dalgleish runners at Southwell (AW) over 7f to 2m ridden by Tom Eaves or Simon Walker:

Runners = 30
Winners = 15
Places = 17
Win strike rate = 50%
Place strike rate = 57%
Profit/ Loss = +£62.41

When it comes to readying one for the Grand National, no one does it better than the McCain yard. This season their two Grand National horses appear to be Across The Bay and Kruzhlinin.

Jockey bookings (and finishing places) in the Becher Chase suggest Kruzhlinin is the stable first choice for the Big One. He was sent off at 33/1 to for the Becher Chase where he finished a never nearer, but highly respectable 7th.

I expected to see him at a similar price for the 2015 Grand National and could not believe that Skybet were offering 100/1. About 18 horses finish the Grand National these days and Kruzhlinin has shown that he gets round over these fences, having finished 10th back in April.

Effectively we are looking at 100/1 in an 18 runner race. Unfortunately Skybet have cut him to 50/1 but he is still available at 66/1 with a few firms. When I bet the Grand National I am primarily looking for a sound jumper with course experience and a fairly low weight.

Kruzhlinin ticks plenty of boxes and as apparent stable first string he rates decent ante-post value at 66/1.

Grand National ante-post tip: Kruzhlinin @66/1

Cheltenham’s December meeting kicks off today with the feature race being the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday and unfortunately my ante-post fancies John’s Spirit and Present View are not lining up.

Paul Nicholls is the most successful trainer at the December meeting in recent times with 14 winners since 2010 (from 50 runners, 28% strike rate).

At the December meeting since 2010 he is 4-10 with his chasers in class 1 and 2 races that have run at Cheltenham 2 or more times.

He has the following entries that fit that profile:

Friday:

12.30pm Vivaldi Collonges (chase debut, likely outsider of the four)

Saturday

12.50pm Virak & Katgary
2.00pm Caid Du Berlais

Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

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