Tag Archives: key trends

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that’s 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick’s columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here’s Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

Salisbury Trainer Trends

Today Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club takes a look at key trends for both jockeys and trainers at the Salisbury meeting.

Don’t forget you can get free winning tips from the Betting School every weekend when you register on their site at http://betting-school.com.

Our Friday column was on the money last week with Nunthorpe winner Sole Power @7/2 and Ebor winner Mutual Regard @25/1. Hopefully a few of you were on. This week we take a look at Salisbury and some of the profitable trainers to make a note of. We also highlight a bang in-form trainer who looks worth following at Chester on Saturday.
First to Salisbury and standing head and shoulders above the rest is Lady Jane Cecil who continues the great work of her late husband. Since 2010 the Cecil yard has had 12 winners from 29 runners for a level stakes profit of £11.57 at the Wiltshire track. Most of the winners have come in non-handicap races and if we concentrate on their 3yo and 4yo non-handicap runners then the figures are 8-17 at a strike rate (SR) of 47% and a level stakes profit of £13.08. Six of their last nine runners at the track have won.

PD Evans has sent out the highest number of winners at the track with 19 in the last 5 seasons at a strike rate of 16%. That strike rate increases to 23% (12-52) in non-handicap races. If we take out his 2yo runners then he is 6-12 (SR 50%) and a level stakes profit of £30.50 with his older horses (3yo and 3yo+) in non-handicap races.

Finally, David Simcock does not send many runners to the track but in the last 5 seasons his non-handicap runners are 5-15 (SR 33.33%) and a level stakes profit of £8.98. Our top three trainers have no entries today but there are two more meetings in September so look out for their runners at the track in the next two weeks.

We have a great card at my local track Chester on Saturday and one trainer I want on-side is Andrew Balding. In the last 5 seasons he is 24-101 (SR 24%) and shows a healthy level stakes profit of £51.13. This season alone he is 8-18 (SR 44%) at the Roodee for a profit of £25.38. Balding and jockey Oisin Murphy have formed a tremendous partnership at the course in 2014, combining for 6 wins from 12 rides and a profit of £21.38. Andrew Balding has the following horses entered at Chester tomorrow:

2.20 Dungannon (5f handicap)
3.30 Whiplash Willie 1m 5f
4.40 Cosmic Ray (7f maiden)

Chester has the biggest draw bias of any course in the UK so we certainly want be drawn low for all races up to 7 ½ f. We have previously highlighted the fact Franny Norton rides Chester as well as anybody and he has a good book of rides on Saturday. They are B Fifty Two (2.20pm), Heavy Metal (2.55pm), Special Meaning (3.30pm), Enlace (4.05pm) and Sea Silk (4.40pm). B Fifty Two and Heavy Metal both look to have a decent chance which would be enhanced further by a nice, low draw.

On a final word, betting on trainer stats is a long term strategy that takes time and patience to reap the rewards. For example we highlighted William Haggas as a trainer to follow at York back in July. At the time of writing he had sent 11 runners to the track in 2014 and all 11 had lost. The following day he sent out two winners @4/1 and 9/2 and followed that up with 3 winners at the Ebor festival @12/1, 20/1 and 8/1.

Today’s Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.10 Salisbury Lady Crossmar 11/4

Newcastle Trainer Trends

Today Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club takes a look at key trends for both jockeys and trainers at the Newcastle meeting.

Don’t forget you can get free winning tips from the Betting School every weekend when you register on their site at http://betting-school.com.

We landed a nice winner and a few placed finishers at decent odds last Friday and this week we head off to Newcastle. The three trainers of interest are Michael Dods, Richard Guest and Tony Coyle who boast course strike rates of 16%, 16% and 19%. If we dig a little deeper we can improve on those statistics by targeting certain races and certain types of horse.

Michael Dods does exceptionally well with his 3yo handicappers at Newcastle. He has had 11 winners from 37 runners at strike rate of 30% and a level stakes profit of £27.05 since 2010. He sends the following horses to Newcastle on Friday:

2.30pm Cara’s Request & Escape To Glory in 7f handicap
3.00pm Blackfoot Brave in the 7f maiden
3.35pm Trinity Star in the 1m 2f handicap
5.10pm Dartrix in the 6f handicap

Trinity Star is the only 3yo handicapper from those horses listed above. Paul Mulrennan takes the ride on Escape To Glory, Blackfoot Brave and Trinity Star. He has ridden 3 winners from 5 rides for Michael Dods at Newcastle since 2012. Connor Beasley takes the ride on Dartrix and the Dods/ Beasley pairing have combined well this season including two winners from their last 4 starts.

Our next trainer is Richard Guest. If we concentrate on his 2yo – 4yo handicappers he has had 16 winners from 62 runners at a strike rate of 26% and a level stakes profit of £85.42 since 2010. He has a fantastic 42% place strike rate too, so backing all those runners each-way would have increased profits to £111.52. On Friday he saddles the following runners:

2.00pm Penalty Scorer in the 5f Nursery
2.30pm Johnny Cavagin & Sakhalin Star in the 7f handicap
5.10pm Hazza The Jazza in the 6f handicap

Penalty Scorer (2yo), Sakhalin Star (3yo) and Hazza The Jazza (4yo) will all be ridden by Duiilo Da Silva who claims a useful 5lbs. Richard Guest’s last 5 runners at the track have finished 21112.

Our final trainer is Tony Coyle who does quite well with his handicappers of any age. He has had 7 winners from 32 runners at a strike rate of 22% and a level stakes profit of £24.00 since 2010. He has an impressive 48% place strike rate, so backing all those runners each-way would have increased profits to £41.62. On Friday he saddles the following runners:

2.00pm Snoway in the 5f Nursery
3.00pm Molly Approve in the 7f maiden
3.35pm Shirocco Passion in the 1m 2f handicap

Snoway is perhaps his most interesting runner stepping up into handicap company for the first time after showing some ability in 3 maidens so far. She finished 4th on both her first two outings in Class 5 company before finishing a disappointing 10th of 12 in a Class 3 at York.

If we go strictly by the strongest statistics, the qualifiers are:

2.00pm Penalty Scorer @7/2 & Snoway @14/1 in the 5f Nursery
2.30pm Johnny Cavagin 14/1 & Sakhalin Star @25/1 in the 7f handicap
3.35pm Trinity Star @5/1 & Shirocco Passion @25/1 in the 1m 2f handicap
5.10pm Hazza The Jazza @12/1 in the 6f handicap

However, anything saddled by Michael Dods is worth a second look in the market whilst Tony Coyle’s horses look to be the outsiders in our list, especially Shirocco Passion who has shown nothing in 3 runs this year.

Today’s Selection

6.30 Newmarket Manshaa – win bet 7/2 bet 365, bet victor

Cheltenham Trends

It all kicks off tomorrow.

The highlight of the National Hunt season. Four days when millions of pounds will change hands. Millions of real pounds in cash in the betting ring and much more in online transactions.

If you want to be involved and want to be playing the key trends from all the big races then I recommend that you get on board with Mark Foley and his Cheltenham Trends service.

For less than a fiver for each day of the Festival you will get a detailed trends analysis of each race along with Mark’s selection for the race.

Click Here to secure your place.

Today’s Selection

2.20 Taunton Chill Factor – win bet – 7/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

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