Tag Archives: latest win

Nick Hardman Free Tips

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat tweet this tip
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4 tweet this tip
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker tweet this tip
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2 tweet this tip

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Free TV Racing Tips

This week we have Saturday racing analysis and tips again from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Before I hand over to Nick who has 9 free TV racing tips I just want to mention a service that has a discount offer that expires at the end of May which is midnight tonight.

Hawkeye Tips is a selective flat betting service that has had 11 selections this month with winners at 14/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 9/1 (advised prices).

You can do the math on that but it is a huge return on investment.

The discount price is £29.99 for 3 months or £99.99 for a year. These go up to £29.99 per month and £179.99 per year from tonight.

To get the discounted prices go to http://hawkeyetips.com

Over to Nick…

Last weekend we managed to pick out a couple of winners in Hot Streak and Slip Sliding Away and two placed horses in Kingsgate Native and Perfect Blessings. Unfortunately with all the rain that fell and the large number of withdrawals we were hit by some large reductions. This weekend I have picked out the best bets from across the cards at Chester, Haydock and York.

The Class 2 Handicap over 7f at Chester (3.05pm) looks a decent race and features a fair number of previous course winners.

Purcell was disappointing in the Victoria Cup when finishing well down the field but I expect him to bounce back here with the tight turns of the Roodee likely to suit and a plum draw in stall 2.

Purcell’s trainer, Andrew Balding, had 3 winners from 7 runners at the May meeting and has saddled 13 winners at the course in the last 2 years.

In the last 5 years his handicappers have won 14 races at the course (23% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of 24pts. I am also happy to put up Deauville Prince as an each-way selection at 16/1 as he has every chance on his earlier form.

Rated 105 back in February after creditable performances in Group 3 races at Meydan and Longchamp, he races here off 100 with Jenny Powell taking off another 7lbs.

If he can get across from stall 5 he could well be leading around the home turn and, as he stays a mile, could still be there to fight out the finish.

Later on the card Andrew Balding runs Storm Force Ten in the 1m 4f Class 4 handicap. A winner at the May meeting he re-opposes the horse he beat by a head that day in Captain Morley.

He is 1lb worse off for a head victory but he has in-form jockey Oisin Murphy on board who takes off 3lb.

Captain Morley had a poor draw that day and ran well to get so close to the eventual winner. I think there is nothing to choose between the pair so I am happy to back both @9/2.

Over at York, the Listed 1m 6f race looks a fascinating contest. I do like the look of Alan King’s First Mohican but I would want better than the currently available 9/2 before getting involved.

Instead, two who can go well at an each-way price are top weight Renew and Shwaiman.

The latter ran well to finish 6th in the Chester Cup from stall 18 and could potentially be the biggest improver in the field.

Renew has a Listed victory at the back end of last season on his CV and was a creditable 4th in the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes last time out, with winner Gospel Choir franking that form nicely.

Staying at York, the 5f Class 2 BetBright Trophy Handicap looks hugely competitive and it is difficult to rule out any of the runners with certainty.

Richard Fahey’s Alben Star is currently favourite but it should be noted that he has raced predominantly over 6f and his sole win over the minimum trip was on his racecourse debut.

His trainer also saddles El Viento who is back down to his last winning mark of 91 and gets further respite with a 5lb claimer on board.

Richard Fahey has said he does not think El Viento is an outsider and there is not much between his two runners.

With a nice high draw, a return to form would see him outrun his odds of 40/1.

At the other end of the market, Monsieur Joe is an out and out 5f specialist and has won 9 times at the distance. He won’t mind any ground condition having won on good to firm, soft and polytrack. He’s up 5lb for his latest win but looks in good form and should run another big race.

If Garswood runs anywhere close to his official rating he will win the Group 3 Timeform Jury Stakes at Haydock.

His seasonal reappearance effort casts enough doubt for me to look elsewhere and I think Breton Rock has as good a chance as any.

The C&D winner is 6 from 8 over 6f and 7f when racing on good to soft or worse. At 4 years old he is open to improvement and I will be hoping for plenty of cut in the ground having backed him @7/1.

Selections:

Chester 3.05pm: Purcell @4/1 and Deauville Prince @16/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Paddy Power)

Chester 5.15pm: Storm Force Ten @9/2 and Captain Morley @9/2

York 2.20pm: Renew @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3places Bet365) and Shwaiman @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 3places BetVictor)

York 2.50: Monsiuer Joe @11/1 and El Viento @40/1 (1/4 odds, 4 places Ladbrokes)

Haydock 2.40: Breton Rock @7/1

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