Tag Archives: lay stake

Double or Nothing Trading

I've written about Double or Nothing in play trading, or Dobbing,before, but that was over 18 months ago so many readers won't have seen the original article.

The reason I've returned to Dobbing today is that I've just read an interesting article in Betting Insiders that gave a secret but free source of selections for your trades.

So to recap here is the explanation of Dobbing that we shared previously, written by Dave Renham…

Dobbing is a term I came across a few years back – I am not sure where it originates from, but essentially a ‘DOB’ means ‘double or bust’. Essentially if we win, we double our original stake, if we lose we ‘bust’ or lose our stake. I am concentrating on the idea of dobbing by utilizing the in running betting markets. It may be easier to explain by giving you an example:

Let us imagine you back a horse pre race at 8.0 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB you try and lay at half the odds for double the stake – so a lay at 4.0 for £20.

If the horse hits 4.0 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £10 (less commission).

Here is the simple maths behind the two potential winning outcomes – if the horse goes onto win the race you get £70 returned from the ‘back’ part of the bet; you lose £60 on the ‘lay’ part of the bet giving you that £10 profit; if the horse does not go onto win, you lose your £10 stake from the ‘back’ bet, but gain £20 from the lay stake – again giving you a £10 profit. Of course if the lay part of the bet is not matched you will lose your £10.

Dobbing is well worth looking into and if you want to do it yourself basically you want to look for horses that you think will run prominently.

The easier profits probably come from bigger priced selections that you think will be up with the pace and on the National Hunt will jump well.

But you can also bet shorter ones that you think will win or go close.

For example if your fancy is 3/1 before the off then it needs to drop below even money for you to get your profit.

If you follow a tipster and you want to find out if it would be profitable to use their selections as Dobbing selections then you can research this by checking the Betfair results page and comparing the Betfair Starting Price with the In Play Low price.

Each time that the In Play Low is half what the Betfair SP is then that would have been a profitable trade.

If you are available during the day consider this as a way of making profit.

If you're a Betting Insiders member check out page 43 of the February 2014 report.

Bot

As you might expect we had a lot of readers interested in the free bot trial and we have emailed the 10 people that were chosen at random. At the moment only 6 of those have replied, if we don't here back from the other 4 today then we will mail another 4 to take their place.

If you weren't lucky this time we will keep you in mind for future freebies.

Today's Selection

6.40 Kempton My Manekineko – eachway bet – 14/1 Paddy Power

In Play Dobbing

Do you do any Dobbing?

I only heard the term the other day, but the process that it describes I have been thinking about for some time.

There are people making a lot of money from Dobbing and I would like a piece of that action.

So what is it, this is Dave Renham's introduction to a new thread he is writing over at the Betting School Insiders Club.

Dobbing is a term I came across a few years back – I am not sure where it originates from, but essentially a ‘DOB’ means ‘double or bust’. Essentially if we win, we double our original stake, if we lose we ‘bust’ or lose our stake. I am concentrating on the idea of dobbing by utilizing the in running betting markets. It may be easier to explain by giving you an example:

Let us imagine you back a horse pre race at 8.0 for £10; in order to create a potential DOB you try and lay at half the odds for double the stake – so a lay at 4.0 for £20.

If the horse hits 4.0 or lower in running, your lay bet will be matched and regardless of the result you will win £10 (less commission).

Here is the simple maths behind the two potential winning outcomes – if the horse goes onto win the race you get £70 returned from the ‘back’ part of the bet; you lose £60 on the ‘lay’ part of the bet giving you that £10 profit; if the horse does not go onto win, you lose your £10 stake from the ‘back’ bet, but gain £20 from the lay stake – again giving you a £10 profit. Of course if the lay part of the bet is not matched you will lose your £10.

Dave is running a live trial in the Betting School Insiders Club trying to develop a system for finding these horses that shorten in running.

I've been watching a lot of races recently trying to garner ideas for my own Dobbing strategy.

My first idea was to look at horses that are stepping up in distance. I figure these types will be prominent early because they are used to shorter distances and a faster pace.

So I've been looking at these and then looking through their history to see how they traded in play at the longer distance previously.

It's too early to tell whether I'm on to anything but if I make my millions I'll drop you a note before I retire.

If you've got ideas for an in play Dobbing strategy then drop me a note or make a comment.

Today's Selection courtesy of Trainer Trends

7.30 Beverley Lucky Money Hills 2/1 with Hills/Skybet  Win Bet

 

Green Up: How To Calculate Your Stakes


100x100_Football
More on Betfair today.

Yesterday Pete asked how do we calculate our stakes when we have made a trade and we want to green up.

So Pete has backed a horse that is shortening in price and he wants to go green up on that selection. IE lock in a profit whatever the outcome.

If for example you were lucky or smart enough to get on Shaws Diamond yesterday morning you could have bet it at around 16.0.

This mare started with a Betfair SP of 6.64. (Easier to find these green up opportunities in hindsight!!)

So let's say you had a back bet for £10 at 16.0 in the morning and it's just before the off and your horse is now trading at 6.8.

You want to lock in a profit on Shaw's Diamond and want to know what stake to lay at 6.8.

The calculation is to multiply your initial stake times your initial back odds (£10 x 16.0 = £160)

You then divide that by the lay price that you can get (£160/6.8 = £23.52)

Place your lay of £23.52 at 6.8 and your initial bet of £10 has now converted to a guaranteed payout of £12.84.

I mentioned a while back that a lot of serious backers don't wait for a selection to win these days.

Instead they lock in a profit once their horse trades down to a certain level and then lock in the profit.

This method is great for predetermined trades or for when you have time to calculate the stake.

When the pressure is on you might prefer to use software that can make the bet in the click of a button 🙂

If you want to it the other way around. So say you have one that's drifting and you lay a tenner at 6.8 and now can back it at 16.0.

Multiply your lay price by your lay stake (£10 x 6.8 = £68) and then divide that by your new odds (£68/16.0 = £4.25).

Back your selection for £4.25 at 16.0 and lock in a £5.46 profit.

A final note: It's easier to find steamers just listen to the pundits and check out free tipsters. Also you risk less money in the initial bet and get a better profit on the green up.

(Green Up: Common parlance for a guaranteed profit on Betfair where every selection shows it will profit if that selection win)

Today's Selection

Again we are stuck with just All Weather racing. We will go with.

Wolverhampton 4.50 Island Legend  – win bet

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