Tag Archives: Leopardstown

King George Tips

A big days racing today with the highlight being the King George Chase.

Tomorrow we have the Welsh National to look forward to.

Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) looks at both races and gives his selections.
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Last week we landed 2 winners from 4 selections at SP’s of 15/2 and 7/4.

This week we turn our attention to the two big races over the Xmas period – the King George VI Chase and the Welsh National.

I have covered both races in detail in the latest issue of the Betting Insiders Magazine and my opinion for the King George has not changed in that Silviniaco Conti is the best staying chaser in training right now.

I put him up as an ante-post tip in the Betting Insiders December issue @4/1.

He is now a best priced 5/2 and if you think that is value then back him.

Cue Card has disappointed this season and was out-stayed by Silviniaco Conti in last year’s King George and I cannot see him reversing that form. Champagne Fever had a hit-and-miss novice season. He was beaten in both the Leopardstown Xmas festival and Punchestowns Festival and arguably his best performance was his 2nd place finish in the Arkle. He was impressive on his seasonal reappearance when he beat Alderwood over 2 ½ miles.

The King George is much tougher and he is too short in my opinion at 10/3.

Al Ferof easily won the Amlin Chase over 2m 3f at Ascot in November and was third in the King George last year (beaten 14 ½ lengths). He has won 5 of his 11 chase starts but has come up short tackling 3 miles in the past. He was slammed 25 lengths by Harry Topper in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury last February over 3 miles and followed that up with a disappointing 5th in the Ryanair.

I think his form flatters to deceive and I cannot see him winning this year’s King George.

I think Dynaste is a much better each-way proposition as he definitely gets the 3 mile trip and ran Silviniaco Conti to within 1 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at Aintree in April. Beaten 10 lengths by Silviniaco Conti in November’s Betfair Chase was a decent effort first time out this season and I think he rates a danger to the favourite.

He is one for the each-way backers @14/1 or those who want to play the place market.

King George VI Chase:

Selection: Silviniaco Conti @5/2
Each-way alternative: Dynaste @8/1

The Welsh National is a great race for trends analysis and this is the typical profile:

• Aged 7yo or 8yo
• A top 4 finish LTO
• Carrying 10-09 or less (10-0 or 10-01 if the going is heavy)
• Had last raced 16 – 60 days previously
• Had 1 or 2 runs in the current season
• Had previously raced over 3m 5 ½ furlongs of further (preferably 4+ miles)

Those that currently fit the profile are Global Power, Amigo and Emperor’s Choice.

It remains to be seen if any make the final cut.

Amigo for David Pipe was runner up in the trial race 3 weeks ago and finished 7th in this last year. He has winning form at Chepstow over 3 miles and acts on the ground.

Oliver Sherwood’s Global Power has bits and pieces of form over staying trips including a 4th place finish in 2013 Midlands National and a win in the Cumberland Handicap Chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground in 2013 and a 2nd place finish in the same race 12 months later.

Emperor’s Choice for Venetia Williams won the 2013 Surrey National over 3m 4f on heavy ground and followed that up with a win in the West Wales National in 2014 over 3m 4f. His chase form on heavy going reads 2111612. A thorough stayer if ever there was one.

Welsh National trends horses:

Global Power @25/1
Emperor’s Choice @25/1
Amigo @14/1

Free National Hunt System

Thanks for your comments on yesterday's article I have more on the Willie Mullins runners today.

Willie Mullins

The first question asked in the comments was what are the returns if we only back the runners that carry the top jockeys at the most profitable tracks?

Well the answer is that you get a reduction in bets down to just 56 since January 1st 2013 but that you get a return on investment of a healthy 53%, so that's good.

But what I notice when I look at the performance at the various tracks when Ruby or Paul ride is that a lot more tracks move into the profitable side of the table.

And that if we add in those other tracks where a profit has been made then we can get the number of bets up over 200.

In fact we get 229 runs, 109 wins, 64.93 profit and 28.35% Return on Investment.

By the way most of the profit comes from Paul Townend, because when Ruby rides the horse is always overbet and the price starts much shorter 🙁

Anyway here's what we have now (results are from 1st January 2013 to yesterday)

National Hunt, Hurdle Races in Ireland at one of the following courses

Ballinrobe, Fairyhouse, Galway, Leopardstown, Limerick, Naas, Navan, Punchestown,
Sligo, Thurles, Tipperary or Wexford

Horse Trained by Willie Mullins

Horse ridden by Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend

Postion in market equals 1 to 4

Runs = 229
Wins = 109
Strike Rate = 47.6%
Profit at iSP = 64.93
Return on Investment = 28.35%

Today's Selection

6.40 Wolverhampton Deebaj – win bet 11/10 Paddy Power

Epsom Derby Tips

Yesterday Nick got Volume placed in the Oaks, hopefully you got the 20/1 that was available all week because come race time she was backed from 16/1 into 9/1.

Intimal shortened from 10's in the morning to 8/1 and Madame Chiang from 16's into 9/1.

BTW I've just been looking through the various tips I get each morning and I see that Hawkeye have tipped a 50/1 and a 66/1 shot at Epsom this afternoon 😮

Today we'll recap Nick's Derby selections.

Geoffrey Chaucer is second favourite having been backed in from 12s to around 7s (Now 11/1). He was unlucky in the Leopardstown trial and was eased down into 3rd after being squeezed for room.

That was over 1m 2f and he appears versatile ground-wise. I think the money coming for him is significant and I’d be delighted to see Ryan Moore (Ryan rides) on board. The 8/1 with PaddyPower looks a solid bet and with only 3 runs under his belt there is surely more to come.

Of the remainder, Aiden O’Brien’s Orchestra is interesting after overcoming greenness to win the Chester Vase over the exact same trip as the Derby. After just 3 runs he is open to plenty of improvement and he showed that day that a mile and a half is within his reach.

Read the full detail of Nick's assessment here

Epsom Derby Selections

Best value: Geoffrey Chaucer @11/1 PaddyPower
Each-way alternative: Orchestra @16/1 Bet Victor

Epsom Derby Tips

Following on from yesterdays Oaks analysis today we have Nick Hardman's (Betting Insiders) Epsom Derby tips.

The Derby ante-post market has been all about Aiden O’Brien’s Australia and it is 5/4 the field right now. If he lives up to the hype he will win this comfortably and if you truly believe that then I would not put you off backing him.

However, I haven’t seen enough on the racecourse to be tempted by those odds and I am happy to take him on.

Similar to the Oaks, the Derby has some strong trends that are worth exploring.

Only 2 of the last 17 winners were priced 17/2 or higher and all of the last 15 winners returned odds of 7/1 or shorter.

With 16 of the last 17 winners coming from the top 4 in the market it has certainly paid not to look too far down the list. 16 of the last 17 winners either won or filled the runners up spot on their previous start (13 won and 3 were second).

Interestingly that would rule out the top three from the betting – Australia (3rd in 2000 Guineas), Geoffrey Chaucer (3rd in the Leopardstown Derby trial) and Kingston Hill (8th in the 2000 Guineas) as well as True Story (3rd in the Dante).

It would take a surprise winner to maintain that trend on Saturday afternoon. Finally, 12 of the last 17 winners had raced beyond 1 mile and all 10 previous winners had had no more than 5 runs.

With Australia at prohibitive odds for this particular punter, I will look at the 3 behind him in the market. Geoffrey Chaucer is second favourite having been backed in from 12s to around 7s. He was unlucky in the Leopardstown trial and was eased down into 3rd after being squeezed for room.

That was over 1m 2f and he appears versatile ground-wise. I think the money coming for him is significant and I’d be delighted to see Ryan Moore on board. The 8/1 with PaddyPower looks a solid bet and with only 3 runs under his belt there is surely more to come.

The horse who beat Geoffey Chaucer that day was Fascinating Rock and he is another one with solid place prospects. He has won his last 3 starts (all over 10f) with the last two being Group 3 races.

He will surely stay and has done all his winning on good-to-soft and soft so he won’t be inconvenienced by any rain.

At 14/1 he is definitely an each-way candidate.

True Story has a lot to prove after a disappointing run in the Dante and he may just be a different horse on good or quick ground. I would have to wait and see what the going was on the day before making a decision on this horse. Kieran Fallon is very keen on him and he says we will see a different horse on the day.

Kingston Hill was an emphatic winner of the Racing Post Trophy on soft ground on his final 2 year old start but has never raced beyond a mile. Western Hymn does get 10f as his last 2 victories have shown so stamina should not be an issue for John Gosden’s colt.

He was very impressive on his seasonal reappearance but was less than convincing on his next start in the Sandown trial, hanging badly left in the final furlong.

Snow Sky took the Lingfield Derby trial but looks held by Western Hymn on their Newbury running and was trounced by Kingston Hill in the Racing Post Trophy (albeit over 1 mile).

Of the remainder, Aiden O’Brien’s Orchestra is interesting after overcoming greenness to win the Chester Vase over the exact same trip as the Derby. After just 3 runs he is open to plenty of improvement and he showed that day that a mile and a half is within his reach.

This year’s renewal is a fascinating contest, especially with Australia taking a huge chunk out of the market. Clearly connections have seen enough at home to feel Australia is much better than Geoffrey Chaucer and Orchestra.

However, if he were to lose he would certainly not be the first Ballydoyle hot-pot to be turned over by the second or third string from that stable. At the prices I think the value lies with Geoffrey Chaucer.

Of those at bigger prices, Kingston Hill, Orchestra, Fascinating Rock and Western Hymn all make some each-way appeal. I make Orchestra the pick of the four having proven himself over a mile and a half on soft ground at Chester, but all of them are worthy of consideration for an upset.

Epsom Derby Selections:

Best value: Geoffrey Chaucer @8/1 (PaddyPower)
Each-way alternative: Orchestra @16/1

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