Tag Archives: longest losing runs

Big Winners great Strike rates…

Isn’t betting a funny thing…

On the one hand we want winners and the bigger the better…

…And on the other we want to win a lot with very few losers.

Big winners and a great Strike rates… Perfect!

Unfortunately it doesn’t quite work like that.

Big winners tend to mean lower strike rates.

Take “Elision” a system we have been testing over at the Grey Horse Bot web site since 28/08/2014.

It has an average winning price of 9.00 (pretty big).

It also has an average strike rate of 13.12% (not so big)

And since we started reviewing the system it has had a winning month of 51.39 and 40.32.

Sounds pretty good…right?

Well not quite…

Averages are funny things. They are made up of high and low figures.

The high ones are great because they produce the big profit months like above.

It’s the low ones that are a pain.

They tend to be the ones where you need to dig deep.

If you have done your homework and understand that longest losing runs do happen then you can ride them out.

If you haven’t then this is where you find out that staking too much from your bank on each selection can really be expensive.

Tipsters and systems have good runs, but they also have times when their natural strike rates adjust.

Whether you call it a “bad run”, “bad luck” or “The system doesn’t work”.

It will happen.

Elision proves this point.

Yes it has had some good months but it also has bad months.

The 28 month history shows us that this is not unusual…

…It’s all down to you and whether you believe the history or think the bad months are the signs of the system going bad.

Don’t ignore statistics…

 Losing runs will happen and the lower the strike rate the longer these will be and the more often they will happen.

Be prepared and reap, ignore and you will be forever losing.

You can check Elision out here

http://greyhorsebot.com/elision

Thanks

Malcolm Pett

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:20 Newcastle Up And Go – win bet – 15/8 Sporting Bet

Horse Racing Staking Plans

I read an interesting article recently about why horse racing staking plans don't help when backing horses.

Basically the premise was that if you are backing then you are betting more losers than winners and if you have any type of increasing stakes plan then you will be increasing stakes on losers also and so you will lose more. Or at least your return on investment will go down.

But that got me thinking, because if we are betting odds on shots then we will have more winners than losers, so that means if we increase stakes then we will be staking more on winners than losers. Because there are more of them.

This reminded me of the Odds On Trainer and Odds On Jockey systems we created back in May of this year.

Both of these systems are in profit, but at Starting Prices it is a very modest profit.

Here are the numbers since we created the system

Odds On Trainers = 3.43 points from 108 bets with a 60.19% strike rate
Odds On Jockeys = 3.35 points from 85 bets with a 63.53% strike rate

To be honest I tend to agree with the article and don't like any form of increasing stakes staking plan, but I think a simple percent of bank plan would go well with these strike rates.

If we revisit my article from earlier in the month about longest losing runs we can calculate that we can expect a longest losing run of about 9 with a 60% strike rate from 100 bets.

So I think a 5% of bank staking plan would work well as it allows for 20 losers in a row.

I applied this plan to the Odds On Trainers system and it made a profit of £7.13 from a £100 bank 🙁 level £5 stakes would have made £17.15.

So I did the same with the Odds On Jockeys system and got similar results, using 5% of the bank made a profit of £10.14, but level £5 stakes produced £16.75.

So what's the point here, I think it's just that beware of anything promising riches from a system or tips that use a particular staking plan.

I'm sure I could come up with a staking plan that would make these selections more profitable, but it would probably only work on that particular sequence.

Feel free to discuss this in the comments and I'll investigate any interesting points raised when I get back from my hols.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

7.50 Wolverhampton Old Fashion 11/4

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