Tag Archives: maiden races

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

First Start Horse Racing Stats II

Thanks for your comments yesterday, I think that Terry's comment sums up why this is a good area to be laying!

Richard and MinnieTheMinx suggested a number of angles worthy of research and I'll deal with some of those today.

Is there any difference between maiden 1st time runs or handicap 1st time runs for the trainer?

I think first run in a handicap is an entirely different matter because a horse needs to have 3 runs to get a handicap mark. So looking at first run in a handicap doesnt give us the green horse factor or the take it easy on him instruction to the jockey.

So I'll leave handicaps for another day.

Looking at Maiden races compared to non Maiden races there is no significant difference in the strike rate and loss.

Is there a difference with regards to the class/group of race?

Class has thrown up some significant differences. As you would expect the majority of first starts are in lower class races, but there are still significant numbers of higher class debutants and they win less than their lower class colleagues.

Here's the number of runs, strike rate and return on investment by Class.

Class 1 ~ 24 ~ 0$ ~ -100%
Class 2 ~ 63 ~ 2% ~ -90.48%
Class 3 ~ 102 ~ 0% ~ -100%
Class 4 ~ 972 ~ 3% ~ -47.04%
Class 5 ~ 2223 ~ 5% ~ -41.11%
Class 6 ~ 802 ~ 7% ~ -37.73%

Is there a difference between sprints, middle & long distance?

I've looked at just flat races with regards to distance and as you might expect there are very few horses debuting in long distance races. So I've compare under a mile with over a mile.

Debutants running at a mile or over lose more than those running at less than a mile.

Less than a mile ~ 2993 ~ 4.78% ~ -40.69%
A Mile or over ~ 1362 ~ 3.89% ~ 51.94%

Is there a difference between genders?

Females lose more than males.

Female ~ 2405 ~ 4% ~ -49.25%
Male ~ 3297 ~ 5% ~ -39.01%

Is there a difference between gender-specific races and those open to both colts and fillies?

Here I've looked at what sex actually competed in a race. It would seem a good idea not to lay the debutants in all male races.

Females Only ~ 1308 ~ 4% ~ -46.15%
Males Only ~ 705 ~ 6% ~ -26.99%
Mixed ~ 3689 ~ 5% ~ -45.45%

Are there any jockey/trainer trends

We have already excluded trainers that do well with debutants so I'll have a look at Jockeys.

Hmmm, I've been looking at the figures for a few minutes now and I think I wouldn't want to add or extract any particular jockey.

There are some who show huge profits, from a backing perspective, but because there are a lot of jockeys the number of runs for each is quite low. That means that a big priced win, which might not be statistically significant, can make a big difference to the returns.

Finally for today I've tried to find a solution to the problem of what to lay when many or all of the runners in a race are debutants. EG today's 2.10 at Hamilton.

Horse Race Base lets me look at the percentage of horses in a race that have run 1 race before.

The data is not significant other than for where no horse in the race has run before and then as you might expect the strike rate goes up and the loss or lay potential goes down.

So the thing to do with races where they are all debutants is to not bet!

Today's Selection

Lingfield 7.40 Szarbos Art – each way bet – 11/2 Bet 365, Bet Victor

On Becoming a Winner

Well it's week two of tent life for me and although you are reading this in August, I am writing it in late July. Let's hope the weather has held up.

This week I'm going to share some words of wisdom on the skills you need to actually make money from betting.

I'm not talking about systems or form reading but instead the mindset and management skills.

I'm sure you will have read somewhere at some time the staggering statistic of the percentage of people that actually make a profit from horse race betting each year.

The figure that I see bandied about is that only 2% of all bettors are consistently profitable.

I have no idea if that's a true representation of the situation and because I get to hang out with a lot of people who make their betting pay I don't really have an idea about what percentage of the total betting public these people make up.

Assuming the numbers are correct then they should really be a wake-up call for anybody that either wants to take up betting or is involved in betting.

As with most things, there's good news and bad news about those statistics. The good news is that if 2% of those people are able to make a profit, it means that it is not impossible. The bad news is that if only 2% can make a profit, it's not going to be that easy.

Now we've all done it, we see those figures, and we let it drift over our head and think “I'm different, that won’t happens to me, I'll be one of those 2% people”. We have a go at betting and low and behold we realise that in fact we are not in the 2% but are actually one of the 98%.

This week I'm going to share what I consider the golden rules for making your betting pay.

Starting today with – Determine Your Betting Goals

In life, those that have vision, and map out the process of how they want to get from point A to point B stand more of chance of getting there successfully than those that don’t map out this process.

With betting, if you wander aimlessly trying this trying that, then you are sure to end up with a losing bank.

To operate betting without a vision will ensure that you remain one of those 98% of bettors that are not profitable.

Here is an example of a realistic betting vision: –

1 – I will research and find five systems or tipsters that have a good long-term historical strike rate.

2 – I will set aside a £1000 bank, and will set up and implement staking and strategy to protect that bank.

3 – I will implement sensible staking, and operate non-aggressive staking plans to maximise my profits potential.

4 – I plan to increase my bank by 100% in the first 12 months, and this will be achieved by following my profit strategy.

My thanks go to the Betting Insiders Club who inspired this weeks posts – Find out more about the Betting Insiders Club at http://bettinginsiders.com

Todays Selection courtesy of the Betting Insiders Club

Saturday’s selection Slip Of The Tongue (adv EW 11/2) thankfully read the script and having made the running went clear with the jockey looking round over 1f out, winning unchallenged after being backed into 9/4!

For today we are taking a punt on a juvenile making its debut in Nursery Handicaps after 3 runs in maiden races. The trainer Ed Mahon has a 21% winning SR in these types of races over the last 5 years and also there are reasons on breeding that Kopkap may have more to offer now switching to handicaps off a mark of 55.

Kopkap (1430 Wolv) 10/1 EW – PaddyPower/Stan James/Ladbrokes

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